Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.43
MA(20): $3.55
MACD: -0.0482
Signal: -0.0157
Days since crossover: 10
Value: 44.1
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,126
Avg (20d): 128,905
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 14.01
%D: 18.76
ADX: 11.78
+DI: 21.99
-DI: 24.64
Value: -85.99
Upper: 3.93
Middle: 3.55
Lower: 3.17
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.559 EUR/MWh (-0.012). JKM prices decreased to 13.095 USD/MMBtu (-0.065). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.536 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-08
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-08
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-08
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.559 |
| SEP 25 | 11.813 |
| OCT 25 | 12.020 |
| NOV 25 | 12.398 |
| DEC 25 | 12.540 |
| JAN 26 | 12.591 |
| FEB 26 | 12.578 |
| MAR 26 | 12.402 |
| APR 26 | 11.784 |
| MAY 26 | 11.552 |
| JUN 26 | 11.500 |
| JUL 26 | 11.543 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.095 |
| SEP 25 | 12.440 |
| OCT 25 | 12.375 |
| NOV 25 | 12.625 |
| DEC 25 | 12.905 |
| JAN 26 | 13.070 |
| FEB 26 | 13.020 |
| MAR 26 | 12.650 |
| APR 26 | 11.995 |
| MAY 26 | 11.830 |
| JUN 26 | 11.850 |
| JUL 26 | 11.950 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-09 | $3.34 | $3.03 | $3.65 |
| 2025-07-10 | $3.35 | $3.03 | $3.66 |
| 2025-07-11 | $3.34 | $3.03 | $3.66 |
| 2025-07-12 | $3.34 | $3.03 | $3.66 |
| 2025-07-13 | $3.35 | $3.04 | $3.66 |
The current market indicators suggest a neutral stance, with a Fibonacci support level at 3.16 and resistance at 3.35. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the bearish overall market sentiment score of -0.333. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.02%, suggesting short-term opportunities may arise near the support level, but risks remain if the market breaks below this point.
With a fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD and a notable decrease of -5.80, producers should consider adjusting production strategies to align with the current market sentiment. The rising output and low demand forecasts may necessitate a review of hedging strategies to mitigate potential revenue impacts. Additionally, the high cooling demand forecast indicates a need for flexible production planning to meet seasonal fluctuations in demand.
Consumers should be aware of the potential for cost fluctuations given the current market conditions and bearish sentiment. The low heating demand expected and the high cooling demand may lead to varying supply reliability. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for potential price volatility, especially as the market adjusts to the cooling demand trends.
The market landscape is currently characterized by bearish sentiment, driven primarily by rising output and lower demand forecasts. The fundamental balance indicates a surplus, which may lead to downward pressure on prices. Analysts should focus on the implications of cooling demand across regions and monitor how geopolitical factors may influence future price movements. The convergence of these elements suggests a cautious outlook for the near term.