Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.45
MA(20): $3.58
MACD: -0.0393
Signal: -0.0009
Days since crossover: 8
Value: 43.84
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 7,110
Avg (20d): 146,581
Ratio: 0.05
%K: 12.43
%D: 21.67
ADX: 12.93
+DI: 24.02
-DI: 25.7
Value: -87.57
Upper: 3.96
Middle: 3.58
Lower: 3.2
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.571 EUR/MWh (-0.004). JKM prices decreased to 13.160 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.589 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-06
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-06
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-06
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.571 |
| SEP 25 | 11.832 |
| OCT 25 | 12.049 |
| NOV 25 | 12.419 |
| DEC 25 | 12.566 |
| JAN 26 | 12.635 |
| FEB 26 | 12.631 |
| MAR 26 | 12.456 |
| APR 26 | 11.789 |
| MAY 26 | 11.547 |
| JUN 26 | 11.484 |
| JUL 26 | 11.552 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.160 |
| SEP 25 | 12.260 |
| OCT 25 | 12.330 |
| NOV 25 | 12.615 |
| DEC 25 | 12.925 |
| JAN 26 | 13.070 |
| FEB 26 | 13.015 |
| MAR 26 | 12.645 |
| APR 26 | 11.930 |
| MAY 26 | 11.770 |
| JUN 26 | 11.750 |
| JUL 26 | 11.910 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-04 | $3.36 | $3.04 | $3.68 |
| 2025-07-05 | $3.4 | $3.08 | $3.72 |
| 2025-07-06 | $3.4 | $3.07 | $3.72 |
| 2025-07-07 | $3.39 | $3.06 | $3.71 |
| 2025-07-08 | $3.4 | $3.07 | $3.72 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment, with a score of -1/5. Traders should be aware of the Fibonacci support level at 3.16 and resistance at 3.35. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 1.38%, with a trading range between 3.04 and 3.68. This could present short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on price fluctuations, but caution is advised due to the overall bearish market sentiment.
With a fundamental balance of 8.00 BCFD and a notable decrease of 5.80, producers should consider adjusting their production strategies to align with current demand trends. The bearish sentiment reflected in news articles, particularly regarding crude oil production increases by OPEC+, suggests a need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses. Monitoring supply chain dynamics and adjusting output accordingly will be crucial in navigating this challenging market landscape.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish. The weather outlook indicates high cooling demand across all regions, which may impact supply reliability. Given the current fundamental balance, it is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage potential price increases in the near term.
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.650 derived from 55 articles. The convergence of high cooling demand and a decrease in fundamental balance indicates that while demand may remain robust, supply-side pressures from OPEC+ could lead to significant price adjustments. Analysts should closely monitor these dynamics, as the interplay between supply increases and demand could lead to shifts in market outlook in the coming weeks.