Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.46
MA(20): $3.59
MACD: -0.0337
Signal: 0.0002
Days since crossover: 8
Value: 45.53
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 16,621
Avg (20d): 147,056
Ratio: 0.11
%K: 19.81
%D: 24.13
ADX: 12.75
+DI: 24.31
-DI: 23.9
Value: -80.19
Upper: 3.96
Middle: 3.59
Lower: 3.22
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.571 EUR/MWh (-0.004). JKM prices decreased to 13.160 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.589 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-04
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-04
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-04
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.571 |
| SEP 25 | 11.832 |
| OCT 25 | 12.049 |
| NOV 25 | 12.419 |
| DEC 25 | 12.566 |
| JAN 26 | 12.635 |
| FEB 26 | 12.631 |
| MAR 26 | 12.456 |
| APR 26 | 11.789 |
| MAY 26 | 11.547 |
| JUN 26 | 11.484 |
| JUL 26 | 11.552 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.160 |
| SEP 25 | 12.260 |
| OCT 25 | 12.330 |
| NOV 25 | 12.615 |
| DEC 25 | 12.925 |
| JAN 26 | 13.070 |
| FEB 26 | 13.015 |
| MAR 26 | 12.645 |
| APR 26 | 11.930 |
| MAY 26 | 11.770 |
| JUN 26 | 11.750 |
| JUL 26 | 11.910 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-04 | $3.36 | $3.04 | $3.68 |
| 2025-07-05 | $3.4 | $3.08 | $3.72 |
| 2025-07-06 | $3.4 | $3.07 | $3.72 |
| 2025-07-07 | $3.39 | $3.06 | $3.71 |
| 2025-07-08 | $3.4 | $3.07 | $3.72 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral stance with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support is at 3.35 and resistance at 3.5, indicating a tight trading range. The ML price forecast points to a potential decline of 1.37% with a range between 3.04 to 3.68. Traders should remain cautious of short-term volatility and consider the bearish sentiment reflected in the overall market analysis.
The fundamental balance is currently at 8.00 BCFD with a significant change of -5.80, indicating a tightening supply scenario. Given the bearish sentiment around crude oil and natural gas, producers may need to reassess production planning and consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. The cooling demand across regions suggests a less aggressive production approach might be prudent in the short term.
With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish market sentiment may lead to lower prices in the near term, but the fundamental balance indicates that supply could tighten, which may pose supply reliability risks. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging options to stabilize costs amidst these uncertainties.
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment across both crude oil and natural gas sectors, driven by supply concerns and moderate demand forecasts. The fundamental balance shows a significant drop, suggesting potential shifts in supply dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor weather patterns and geopolitical developments that could impact demand, as these will be key drivers of future price movements. Overall, the convergence of bearish sentiment and technical indicators may signal a cautious outlook in the coming weeks.