Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.49
MA(20): $3.6
MACD: -0.0245
Signal: 0.0086
Days since crossover: 7
Value: 46.08
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,404
Avg (20d): 150,953
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 22.13
%D: 25.11
ADX: 13.53
+DI: 23.86
-DI: 24.29
Value: -77.87
Upper: 3.96
Middle: 3.6
Lower: 3.24
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.575 EUR/MWh (-0.042). JKM prices increased to 13.165 USD/MMBtu (+0.060). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.590 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-03
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-03
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-03
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 11.575 |
| SEP 25 | 11.843 |
| OCT 25 | 12.047 |
| NOV 25 | 12.419 |
| DEC 25 | 12.566 |
| JAN 26 | 12.621 |
| FEB 26 | 12.609 |
| MAR 26 | 12.425 |
| APR 26 | 11.752 |
| MAY 26 | 11.499 |
| JUN 26 | 11.436 |
| JUL 26 | 11.487 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.165 |
| SEP 25 | 12.160 |
| OCT 25 | 12.230 |
| NOV 25 | 12.530 |
| DEC 25 | 12.855 |
| JAN 26 | 12.995 |
| FEB 26 | 12.930 |
| MAR 26 | 12.545 |
| APR 26 | 11.855 |
| MAY 26 | 11.690 |
| JUN 26 | 11.685 |
| JUL 26 | 11.835 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-03 | $3.49 | $3.17 | $3.81 |
| 2025-07-04 | $3.43 | $3.11 | $3.75 |
| 2025-07-05 | $3.47 | $3.15 | $3.79 |
| 2025-07-06 | $3.47 | $3.15 | $3.79 |
| 2025-07-07 | $3.46 | $3.14 | $3.78 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. Key support level is at 3.35 while resistance is at 3.5. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward trend of 0.04%, with a range between 3.17 and 3.81. This presents potential short-term opportunities, but traders should remain cautious of the bearish overall market sentiment reflected in the news sentiment score of -0.550, which could introduce volatility.
The fundamental balance indicates a significant decrease to 8.00 BCFD, down by -5.80, suggesting an oversupply situation. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies in response to the bearish sentiment, particularly for natural gas, which has a sentiment score of -0.700. The current news cycle reflects uncertainties, particularly regarding crude oil tariffs and OPEC+ output, which could impact pricing and demand stability.
With the weather forecast indicating cooling dominance (CDD: 14.6), consumers can expect cost fluctuations in energy prices due to increased demand for cooling. The fundamental balance shows a drop in supply, which could lead to supply reliability risks. It may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for potential price increases, especially in light of the bearish sentiment in the market.
The market presents a mixed picture with a neutral technical outlook and a bearish overall sentiment. The fundamental balance indicates a supply reduction, while the weather outlook suggests increased cooling demand, which could support price stability in the short term. Analysts should closely monitor the ML price forecasts and news sentiment as key indicators of market shifts, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions impacting crude oil prices.