Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.59
MA(20): $3.63
MACD: -0.0101
Signal: 0.0248
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 46.03
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,162
Avg (20d): 149,636
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 22.55
%D: 35.51
ADX: 15.45
+DI: 25.13
-DI: 23.66
Value: -77.45
Upper: 3.98
Middle: 3.63
Lower: 3.28
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices remained stable to 12.380 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 13.125 USD/MMBtu (-0.070). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.745 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-07-01
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-07-01
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-07-01
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.380 |
| AUG 25 | 11.318 |
| SEP 25 | 11.572 |
| OCT 25 | 11.755 |
| NOV 25 | 12.095 |
| DEC 25 | 12.227 |
| JAN 26 | 12.302 |
| FEB 26 | 12.306 |
| MAR 26 | 12.141 |
| APR 26 | 11.542 |
| MAY 26 | 11.318 |
| JUN 26 | 11.245 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.125 |
| SEP 25 | 11.990 |
| OCT 25 | 12.075 |
| NOV 25 | 12.290 |
| DEC 25 | 12.625 |
| JAN 26 | 12.775 |
| FEB 26 | 12.735 |
| MAR 26 | 12.365 |
| APR 26 | 11.740 |
| MAY 26 | 11.585 |
| JUN 26 | 11.595 |
| JUL 26 | 11.735 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-02 | $3.45 | $3.13 | $3.77 |
| 2025-07-03 | $3.46 | $3.13 | $3.78 |
| 2025-07-04 | $3.4 | $3.07 | $3.72 |
| 2025-07-05 | $3.43 | $3.11 | $3.76 |
| 2025-07-06 | $3.43 | $3.11 | $3.76 |
The current market conditions present a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support is at 3.35 and resistance at 3.51. This indicates potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.99% with a trading range of 3.13 to 3.77. Traders should monitor for short-term opportunities, but remain cautious due to the overall bearish sentiment.
The fundamental balance indicates a significant decline in demand, with a current level of 8.00 BCFD, down by 5.80. This suggests a need for producers to evaluate production planning and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with declining prices. The bearish market sentiment, especially for natural gas, emphasizes the importance of monitoring market news and adapting operations accordingly.
With the weather forecast indicating high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy pricing. The current market sentiment is bearish, suggesting that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to secure favorable pricing. Additionally, the supply reliability may be impacted by the ongoing production trends, necessitating a review of supply agreements.
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, primarily driven by strong production levels and soft demand. The fundamental balance is at 8.00 BCFD, indicating a significant supply overhang. Weather patterns are favoring cooling demand, which may influence short-term price movements. Analysts should focus on the interplay between these factors and consider potential shifts in market dynamics as demand evolves.