Total supply increased by 0.2 BCFD | Total demand increased by 6.0 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 8.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.68
MA(20): $3.64
MACD: 0.0174
Signal: 0.041
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 54.12
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 147,306
Avg (20d): 155,170
Ratio: 0.95
%K: 57.53
%D: 22.82
ADX: 17.37
+DI: 28.29
-DI: 23.06
Value: -42.47
Upper: 3.98
Middle: 3.64
Lower: 3.3
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.0 | 105.7 | 100.4 | 98.53 |
| LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 5.73 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 104.37 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.6 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 21.2 |
| Electric Power Demand | 44.7 | 39.0 | 40.9 | 38.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| LNG Exports | 14.9 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 6.43 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 104.5 | 98.5 | 100.3 | 94.63 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 8.0 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 9.73 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.394 EUR/MWh (-0.037). JKM prices decreased to 13.325 USD/MMBtu (-0.215). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.931 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-27
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-27
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-27
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.394 |
| AUG 25 | 11.864 |
| SEP 25 | 12.125 |
| OCT 25 | 12.294 |
| NOV 25 | 12.594 |
| DEC 25 | 12.720 |
| JAN 26 | 12.765 |
| FEB 26 | 12.764 |
| MAR 26 | 12.569 |
| APR 26 | 11.856 |
| MAY 26 | 11.587 |
| JUN 26 | 11.506 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.325 |
| SEP 25 | 12.475 |
| OCT 25 | 12.545 |
| NOV 25 | 12.730 |
| DEC 25 | 13.025 |
| JAN 26 | 13.145 |
| FEB 26 | 13.100 |
| MAR 26 | 12.700 |
| APR 26 | 11.990 |
| MAY 26 | 11.815 |
| JUN 26 | 11.810 |
| JUL 26 | 11.915 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-27 | $3.27 | $2.99 | $3.56 |
| 2025-06-28 | $3.27 | $2.99 | $3.56 |
| 2025-06-29 | $3.28 | $2.99 | $3.57 |
| 2025-06-30 | $3.29 | $3.0 | $3.58 |
| 2025-07-01 | $3.31 | $3.02 | $3.59 |
Current market signals suggest a moderately bullish outlook with a technical score of 2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.69 and resistance is at 3.92, indicating potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast for the next day indicates a slight increase of 0.42%, which may present short-term trading opportunities. However, the overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.350, suggesting caution due to potential volatility.
The fundamental balance is currently at 8.00 BCFD, reflecting a significant change of -5.80. This may require producers to adjust their production planning and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from a bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil and natural gas prices. Additionally, the cooling demand across regions could impact consumption patterns, necessitating a review of output levels to align with market demand.
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand across all regions, consumers should anticipate potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for natural gas, suggests that while prices may be lower, supply reliability could be at risk due to ongoing production adjustments. Consumers are advised to consider hedging strategies to manage these potential risks effectively.
The energy market is currently influenced by a mix of factors. The bearish sentiment across crude oil and natural gas, combined with a fundamental balance showing a decrease, points to a market under pressure. The cooling demand driven by weather patterns suggests that while there may be short-term price increases, the overall outlook remains cautious. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and infrastructure changes closely, as these could shift the market dynamics significantly.