Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.68
MA(20): $3.63
MACD: 0.036
Signal: 0.0571
Days since crossover: 1
Value: 43.24
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 84
Avg (20d): 151,805
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 2.68
%D: 16.67
ADX: 18.39
+DI: 23.44
-DI: 23.69
Value: -97.32
Upper: 3.98
Middle: 3.63
Lower: 3.27
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.441 EUR/MWh (-0.298). JKM prices decreased to 13.520 USD/MMBtu (-0.940). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.079 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-25
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-25
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-25
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.441 |
| AUG 25 | 12.330 |
| SEP 25 | 12.534 |
| OCT 25 | 12.682 |
| NOV 25 | 12.906 |
| DEC 25 | 13.010 |
| JAN 26 | 13.041 |
| FEB 26 | 13.020 |
| MAR 26 | 12.803 |
| APR 26 | 12.012 |
| MAY 26 | 11.704 |
| JUN 26 | 11.612 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 13.520 |
| SEP 25 | 12.900 |
| OCT 25 | 12.935 |
| NOV 25 | 13.035 |
| DEC 25 | 13.310 |
| JAN 26 | 13.360 |
| FEB 26 | 13.290 |
| MAR 26 | 12.900 |
| APR 26 | 12.080 |
| MAY 26 | 11.825 |
| JUN 26 | 11.835 |
| JUL 26 | 11.945 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-26 | $3.41 | $3.12 | $3.69 |
| 2025-06-27 | $3.41 | $3.12 | $3.69 |
| 2025-06-28 | $3.41 | $3.13 | $3.69 |
| 2025-06-29 | $3.43 | $3.14 | $3.71 |
| 2025-06-30 | $3.44 | $3.16 | $3.72 |
Current market conditions present a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.19 and resistance is at 3.39, indicating potential price range for short-term trading. The overall market sentiment is bearish, reflected in a sentiment score of -0.450. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility in the near term, especially with the ML price forecast indicating a slight decline of 0.02% in the next day.
The fundamental balance is currently at 14.50 BCFD with a change of -1.70, which suggests a tightening supply situation that may impact production strategies. The bearish sentiment around natural gas, with a score of -0.750, indicates that producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate price risks. The high cooling demand across all regions may provide opportunities for increased production, but the overall market sentiment suggests caution in operational planning.
With the current weather outlook indicating high cooling demand but low heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in energy costs. The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for natural gas, suggests that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to secure favorable pricing. The fundamental balance shows a slight tightening, which could lead to supply reliability risks; hence, consumers should consider proactive hedging measures to manage costs effectively.
The current market landscape is characterized by a bearish sentiment across major commodities, with natural gas sentiment particularly low at -0.750. The fundamental balance indicates a slight decrease, which may point to potential supply concerns in the near future. The weather forecasts suggest increased cooling demand, which could drive short-term price movements. Analysts should monitor the convergence of these factors closely, as they may signal shifts in market dynamics that could affect future pricing strategies.