Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.69
MA(20): $3.62
MACD: 0.0808
Signal: 0.0612
Days since crossover: 17
Value: 51.22
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,451
Avg (20d): 149,014
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 29.06
%D: 61.15
ADX: 20.12
+DI: 27.38
-DI: 16.05
Value: -70.94
Upper: 3.99
Middle: 3.62
Lower: 3.24
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.768 EUR/MWh (+0.263). JKM prices increased to 14.255 USD/MMBtu (+0.375). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.487 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-23
Front month: AUG 25
As of 2025-06-23
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-23
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.768 |
| AUG 25 | 14.024 |
| SEP 25 | 14.265 |
| OCT 25 | 14.401 |
| NOV 25 | 14.565 |
| DEC 25 | 14.636 |
| JAN 26 | 14.654 |
| FEB 26 | 14.632 |
| MAR 26 | 14.375 |
| APR 26 | 13.054 |
| MAY 26 | 12.646 |
| JUN 26 | 12.525 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| AUG 25 | 14.255 |
| SEP 25 | 14.340 |
| OCT 25 | 14.375 |
| NOV 25 | 14.455 |
| DEC 25 | 14.650 |
| JAN 26 | 14.650 |
| FEB 26 | 14.395 |
| MAR 26 | 13.630 |
| APR 26 | 12.930 |
| MAY 26 | 12.660 |
| JUN 26 | 12.605 |
| JUL 26 | 12.845 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-24 | $3.7 | $3.42 | $3.99 |
| 2025-06-25 | $3.68 | $3.4 | $3.96 |
| 2025-06-26 | $3.67 | $3.39 | $3.96 |
| 2025-06-27 | $3.68 | $3.4 | $3.97 |
| 2025-06-28 | $3.7 | $3.41 | $3.98 |
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment with technical analysis scoring 2/5. The Fibonacci support level stands at 3.56 while resistance is noted at 3.72. Traders should watch for potential price movements within the 3.42 to 3.99 range according to the ML forecast, which predicts a slight increase of 0.17%. However, with an overall bearish market sentiment score of -0.300, caution is advised regarding volatility and potential short-term risks.
With a fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD and a notable decrease of -1.70, producers should reassess production planning to align with market dynamics. The prevailing bearish sentiment could impact pricing strategies and necessitate adjustments in hedging approaches. Additionally, the cooling demand forecast across all regions suggests a need for strategic inventory management to mitigate any supply reliability risks.
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers can expect potential fluctuations in energy costs. The bearish news sentiment might indicate challenges in supply reliability, urging consumers to consider proactive procurement strategies. It is advisable to monitor price movements closely, especially within the projected range of 3.42 to 3.99, to optimize purchasing decisions and manage budgetary impacts effectively.
The market appears to be influenced by several factors, with the overarching theme being bearish sentiment reflected in the overall sentiment score of -0.300. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply situation, while the technical indicators signal possible resistance around 3.72. Weather forecasts suggest a strong demand for cooling, which may provide some support for prices. Analysts should focus on these dynamics to anticipate shifts in market sentiment and potential price movements.