Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.65
MA(20): $3.55
MACD: 0.0639
Signal: 0.0384
Days since crossover: 14
Value: 60.94
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,942
Avg (20d): 154,094
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 97.17
%D: 83.77
ADX: 16.13
+DI: 25.32
-DI: 13.31
Value: -2.83
Upper: 3.91
Middle: 3.55
Lower: 3.19
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.420 EUR/MWh (+0.027). JKM prices remained stable to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.084 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-17
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-17
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-17
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.420 |
| AUG 25 | 13.025 |
| SEP 25 | 13.178 |
| OCT 25 | 13.315 |
| NOV 25 | 13.576 |
| DEC 25 | 13.687 |
| JAN 26 | 13.718 |
| FEB 26 | 13.698 |
| MAR 26 | 13.474 |
| APR 26 | 12.499 |
| MAY 26 | 12.143 |
| JUN 26 | 12.024 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.585 |
| SEP 25 | 13.535 |
| OCT 25 | 13.610 |
| NOV 25 | 13.870 |
| DEC 25 | 14.080 |
| JAN 26 | 14.115 |
| FEB 26 | 13.915 |
| MAR 26 | 13.275 |
| APR 26 | 12.580 |
| MAY 26 | 12.315 |
| JUN 26 | 12.275 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-18 | $3.85 | $3.57 | $4.13 |
| 2025-06-19 | $3.86 | $3.58 | $4.14 |
| 2025-06-20 | $3.86 | $3.58 | $4.14 |
| 2025-06-21 | $3.85 | $3.57 | $4.13 |
| 2025-06-22 | $3.84 | $3.56 | $4.12 |
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bullish sentiment, with a fundamental balance at 14.50 BCFD, down by 1.70. Key Fibonacci support is at 3.72 and resistance at 3.95. The cooling demand across all regions suggests potential short-term volatility, especially in the power generation sector.
With the ML price forecast suggesting a slight decline of 0.08%, traders should monitor price movements closely around the 3.72 level for potential buying opportunities, while being cautious of resistance near 3.95.
Producers should consider the overall bullish sentiment reflected in the market, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of +0.800. The fundamental balance indicates a slight reduction in supply, which may tighten the market and support prices. This could provide a favorable environment for hedging strategies.
Additionally, with the high cooling demand expected, producers should evaluate their production planning to meet the anticipated increase in natural gas demand, particularly for power generation.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bullish. The high cooling demand indicates that prices may rise, especially during peak usage periods. The current fundamental balance suggests a tightening supply, which could lead to reliability risks in supply.
It's advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against rising prices, particularly in light of the ML forecast indicating a slight price decline, which could present a short-term opportunity for locking in lower rates.
The current market landscape reflects a strong bullish sentiment overall, with the fundamental balance showing a decrease in supply. The cooling demand across all regions is a significant driving factor for this bullish outlook, particularly affecting natural gas prices.
Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impact on oil prices, as well as the interplay between rising demand forecasts and supply disruptions. The ML price forecast indicates a slight downward trend, suggesting a need for vigilance in anticipating shifts in market dynamics.