Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.63
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: 0.0456
Signal: 0.0325
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 57.87
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 3,444
Avg (20d): 154,677
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 93.23
%D: 69.62
ADX: 15.08
+DI: 21.89
-DI: 14.0
Value: -6.77
Upper: 3.88
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.393 EUR/MWh (+0.283). JKM prices increased to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.044). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.111 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-16
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.393 |
| AUG 25 | 12.969 |
| SEP 25 | 13.109 |
| OCT 25 | 13.244 |
| NOV 25 | 13.448 |
| DEC 25 | 13.547 |
| JAN 26 | 13.589 |
| FEB 26 | 13.583 |
| MAR 26 | 13.357 |
| APR 26 | 12.401 |
| MAY 26 | 12.043 |
| JUN 26 | 11.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.385 |
| SEP 25 | 13.325 |
| OCT 25 | 13.380 |
| NOV 25 | 13.540 |
| DEC 25 | 13.815 |
| JAN 26 | 13.950 |
| FEB 26 | 13.895 |
| MAR 26 | 13.445 |
| APR 26 | 12.445 |
| MAY 26 | 12.145 |
| JUN 26 | 12.105 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-17 | $3.74 | $3.45 | $4.02 |
| 2025-06-18 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.03 |
| 2025-06-19 | $3.76 | $3.47 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-20 | $3.75 | $3.47 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-21 | $3.74 | $3.45 | $4.02 |
The current market indicators suggest a moderately bullish sentiment with a fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD, indicating a slight decrease in supply. Traders should note the Fibonacci support at 3.72 and resistance at 3.95, which could guide short-term trading strategies. The ML price forecast indicates a potential downward movement of 0.29%, suggesting caution in long positions. Overall, the convergence of cooling demand and overall news sentiment (+0.467) could provide short-term opportunities, but volatility remains a key risk factor.
With a bullish market sentiment and a decrease in supply of 1.70 BCFD, producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with the current demand forecast driven by high cooling needs. The positive sentiment around cooling demand is likely to favor natural gas prices, encouraging producers to focus on hedging strategies that capitalize on potential price increases. However, the geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil could introduce volatility; hence, maintaining a flexible production strategy will be crucial.
Given the current weather outlook indicating high cooling demand, consumers should anticipate potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and electricity prices. The fundamental balance suggests tighter supply conditions, which could lead to increased procurement costs. Additionally, with a positive news sentiment around natural gas, consumers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with rising prices. Monitoring the Fibonacci levels could also aid in timing purchasing decisions effectively.
The market presents a mixed picture with a bullish sentiment overall, particularly in natural gas, driven by high cooling demand and positive weather forecasts. However, the downward ML price forecast indicates potential short-term volatility. Analysts should focus on the fundamental balance of 14.50 BCFD and the implications of geopolitical tensions on crude oil prices, which may influence broader market trends. The convergence of these factors suggests a need for close monitoring as shifts in sentiment or supply could lead to significant market movements.