Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.63
MA(20): $3.51
MACD: 0.0427
Signal: 0.0319
Days since crossover: 13
Value: 56.86
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,553
Avg (20d): 158,961
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 87.82
%D: 67.82
ADX: 14.89
+DI: 20.95
-DI: 14.17
Value: -12.18
Upper: 3.88
Middle: 3.51
Lower: 3.14
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.393 EUR/MWh (+0.283). JKM prices increased to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.044). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.111 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-16
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-16
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.393 |
| AUG 25 | 12.969 |
| SEP 25 | 13.109 |
| OCT 25 | 13.244 |
| NOV 25 | 13.448 |
| DEC 25 | 13.547 |
| JAN 26 | 13.589 |
| FEB 26 | 13.583 |
| MAR 26 | 13.357 |
| APR 26 | 12.401 |
| MAY 26 | 12.043 |
| JUN 26 | 11.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.385 |
| SEP 25 | 13.325 |
| OCT 25 | 13.380 |
| NOV 25 | 13.540 |
| DEC 25 | 13.815 |
| JAN 26 | 13.950 |
| FEB 26 | 13.895 |
| MAR 26 | 13.445 |
| APR 26 | 12.445 |
| MAY 26 | 12.145 |
| JUN 26 | 12.105 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | $3.58 | $3.3 | $3.86 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-16 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-17 | $3.6 | $3.31 | $3.88 |
| 2025-06-18 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
Current market sentiment is bullish with a sentiment score of +0.433. However, the technical indicators indicate a moderately bullish outlook with a score of 2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.72 and resistance at 3.95. The ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.07%, with a range of 3.3 to 3.86, indicating potential short-term volatility. Look for opportunities around these levels while managing exposure to sudden market shifts.
The fundamental balance is currently at 14.50 BCFD, reflecting a decrease of 1.70, which may impact production strategies. Given the positive sentiment for natural gas at +0.600, producers may consider adjusting their hedging strategies to capitalize on potential price increases. Additionally, with the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil, it is advisable to monitor supply chain risks closely and prepare for possible disruptions.
With the weather outlook indicating high cooling demand across all regions, consumers should anticipate potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The sentiment around natural gas is strong at +0.600, suggesting that prices may rise due to increased demand. It would be prudent for consumers to review procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability and price volatility in the coming weeks.
The current market presents a bullish sentiment across the board, particularly for natural gas and crude oil. The technical indicators suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, with Fibonacci levels indicating potential price ranges. The fundamental balance and weather forecasts are driving demand, while geopolitical factors introduce volatility. Analysts should focus on these key drivers and be prepared for shifts in market dynamics as the situation evolves.