Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 2.2 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.5 BCFD
MA(9): $3.63
MA(20): $3.49
MACD: 0.031
Signal: 0.0292
Days since crossover: 12
Value: 51.92
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 220,853
Avg (20d): 165,950
Ratio: 1.33
%K: 64.51
%D: 56.34
ADX: 14.55
+DI: 17.42
-DI: 15.11
Value: -35.49
Upper: 3.85
Middle: 3.49
Lower: 3.12
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.2 | 105.8 | 99.6 | 98.77 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 112.9 | 112.4 | 105.2 | 104.1 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 22.4 | 21.8 | 21.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.7 | 34.6 | 36.1 | 34.9 |
| Residential & Commercial | 9.3 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 9.37 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.8 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 98.4 | 96.2 | 96.1 | 91.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.5 | 16.2 | 9.1 | 12.33 |
TTF prices increased to 12.393 EUR/MWh (+0.283). JKM prices increased to 12.504 USD/MMBtu (+0.044). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.111 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-14
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-14
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-14
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.393 |
| AUG 25 | 12.969 |
| SEP 25 | 13.109 |
| OCT 25 | 13.244 |
| NOV 25 | 13.448 |
| DEC 25 | 13.547 |
| JAN 26 | 13.589 |
| FEB 26 | 13.583 |
| MAR 26 | 13.357 |
| APR 26 | 12.401 |
| MAY 26 | 12.043 |
| JUN 26 | 11.928 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.504 |
| AUG 25 | 13.385 |
| SEP 25 | 13.325 |
| OCT 25 | 13.380 |
| NOV 25 | 13.540 |
| DEC 25 | 13.815 |
| JAN 26 | 13.950 |
| FEB 26 | 13.895 |
| MAR 26 | 13.445 |
| APR 26 | 12.445 |
| MAY 26 | 12.145 |
| JUN 26 | 12.105 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-14 | $3.58 | $3.3 | $3.86 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-16 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
| 2025-06-17 | $3.6 | $3.31 | $3.88 |
| 2025-06-18 | $3.59 | $3.31 | $3.87 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment overall, with a moderately bullish technical interpretation (Score: 2/5). Key levels to watch are Fibonacci support at 3.56 and resistance at 3.72. The ML price forecast indicates a slight downward trend of 0.07%, with an expected range of 3.3 to 3.86. Traders should consider potential volatility around these levels, especially given the cooling demand across regions, which may impact short-term price movements.
The fundamental balance shows a current level of 14.50 BCFD with a decrease of 1.70. This indicates a potential tightening of supply, which could influence production planning and hedging strategies. The neutral news sentiment and mixed reports on demand may require producers to remain cautious, particularly with the geopolitical risks highlighted in recent headlines affecting crude oil. Monitoring the weather outlook for cooling demand is crucial for adjusting operational strategies.
With the forecast indicating low heating demand and neutral market sentiment, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The current fundamental balance suggests a decrease in supply, which could lead to increased prices if demand rises unexpectedly. It may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging options to mitigate risk from price volatility in the coming weeks.
The energy market presents a complex picture with a blend of neutral sentiment and moderately bullish technical indicators. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply situation, while the weather outlook suggests cooling demand across multiple regions. Analysts should focus on the implications of the geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil supply and the potential for shifts in demand due to changing weather patterns. Overall, the market may experience volatility as these factors converge.