Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.65
MA(20): $3.48
MACD: 0.0359
Signal: 0.0296
Days since crossover: 11
Value: 50.68
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 10,992
Avg (20d): 152,047
Ratio: 0.07
%K: 59.55
%D: 56.74
ADX: 14.99
+DI: 18.06
-DI: 16.24
Value: -40.45
Upper: 3.84
Middle: 3.48
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.3 | 100.1 | 99.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.77 |
| Total Supply | 112.4 | 112.5 | 105.4 | 103.9 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.7 | 21.47 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.6 | 31.7 | 35.6 | 32.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.8 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 13.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.13 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 96.2 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 89.83 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.2 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 14.07 |
TTF prices increased to 11.999 EUR/MWh (+0.301). JKM prices increased to 12.445 USD/MMBtu (+0.035). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.446 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-12
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-12
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-12
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 11.999 |
| AUG 25 | 12.214 |
| SEP 25 | 12.356 |
| OCT 25 | 12.498 |
| NOV 25 | 12.713 |
| DEC 25 | 12.816 |
| JAN 26 | 12.855 |
| FEB 26 | 12.846 |
| MAR 26 | 12.656 |
| APR 26 | 11.806 |
| MAY 26 | 11.521 |
| JUN 26 | 11.435 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.445 |
| AUG 25 | 12.680 |
| SEP 25 | 12.670 |
| OCT 25 | 12.725 |
| NOV 25 | 12.875 |
| DEC 25 | 13.185 |
| JAN 26 | 13.280 |
| FEB 26 | 13.210 |
| MAR 26 | 12.785 |
| APR 26 | 11.940 |
| MAY 26 | 11.715 |
| JUN 26 | 11.705 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-13 | $3.47 | $3.19 | $3.75 |
| 2025-06-14 | $3.48 | $3.2 | $3.76 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.49 | $3.21 | $3.77 |
| 2025-06-16 | $3.49 | $3.21 | $3.77 |
| 2025-06-17 | $3.49 | $3.21 | $3.77 |
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bullish sentiment with a technical score of 2/5. Traders should focus on the Fibonacci support level of 3.39 and the resistance level of 3.56 for potential price movements. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.53%, suggesting short-term volatility may present risks for positions. Overall, keep an eye on cooling demand trends across regions, which could impact price direction.
The fundamental balance is at 16.20 BCFD, reflecting a slight increase in supply. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning in response to the neutral sentiment in the market. The positive news sentiment surrounding natural gas prices may provide an opportunity for hedging strategies, particularly with rising demand signs noted for LNG exports. However, be cautious of potential market volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil.
With the current cooling demand forecast, consumers can expect potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The high cooling degree days (CDD) across regions indicate increased power generation needs, which may lead to price hikes. The ML price forecast suggests a slight decrease, but supply reliability risks remain due to fluctuating demand patterns. Consumers should consider hedging options to mitigate potential price spikes in the upcoming weeks.
The current market landscape is shaped by a neutral overall sentiment with a slight bullish outlook for natural gas, contrasted by bearish signals for crude oil. The fundamental balance indicates a stable supply, while the cooling demand suggests a temporary increase in consumption. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and their impact on crude oil prices, as they remain a significant factor influencing market dynamics. The convergence of these factors may lead to shifts in outlook that warrant close attention.