Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.64
MA(20): $3.48
MACD: 0.0431
Signal: 0.0286
Days since crossover: 10
Value: 50.32
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 3,444
Avg (20d): 147,079
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 58.2
%D: 63.28
ADX: 16.2
+DI: 19.83
-DI: 15.68
Value: -41.8
Upper: 3.84
Middle: 3.48
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.3 | 100.1 | 99.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.77 |
| Total Supply | 112.4 | 112.5 | 105.4 | 103.9 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.7 | 21.47 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.6 | 31.7 | 35.6 | 32.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.8 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 13.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.13 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 96.2 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 89.83 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.2 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 14.07 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.698 EUR/MWh (-0.203). JKM prices decreased to 12.410 USD/MMBtu (-0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.712 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-11
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-11
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-11
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 11.698 |
| AUG 25 | 11.748 |
| SEP 25 | 11.897 |
| OCT 25 | 12.055 |
| NOV 25 | 12.273 |
| DEC 25 | 12.387 |
| JAN 26 | 12.426 |
| FEB 26 | 12.420 |
| MAR 26 | 12.239 |
| APR 26 | 11.451 |
| MAY 26 | 11.183 |
| JUN 26 | 11.102 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.410 |
| AUG 25 | 12.220 |
| SEP 25 | 12.185 |
| OCT 25 | 12.285 |
| NOV 25 | 12.445 |
| DEC 25 | 12.765 |
| JAN 26 | 12.850 |
| FEB 26 | 12.800 |
| MAR 26 | 12.395 |
| APR 26 | 11.565 |
| MAY 26 | 11.385 |
| JUN 26 | 11.380 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-12 | $3.51 | $3.22 | $3.8 |
| 2025-06-13 | $3.49 | $3.2 | $3.78 |
| 2025-06-14 | $3.5 | $3.21 | $3.79 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.51 | $3.22 | $3.79 |
| 2025-06-16 | $3.51 | $3.22 | $3.79 |
Current market conditions suggest a neutral sentiment with potential price movements. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.39 and resistance at 3.56. Traders should be cautious as the technical interpretation indicates limited volatility, scoring only 1/5. The ML price forecast suggests a slight increase of 0.07%, with a range between 3.22 and 3.80. This could present short-term opportunities if prices approach resistance.
The fundamental balance is currently at 16.20 BCFD, with a slight increase of +1.00. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies. The neutral sentiment in the market may influence operational decisions, particularly in response to demand forecasts that indicate lower consumption due to cooling weather patterns. Monitoring the news sentiment around crude oil, which is currently bearish, will also be crucial for adjusting strategies.
With the weather outlook skewed towards cooling demand, consumers can expect lower heating demand and potential stability in energy costs. However, the risk of supply reliability remains due to fluctuating demand signals, as indicated by recent news sentiment around natural gas prices, which are currently bearish. Consumers should consider these dynamics when planning procurement strategies and may benefit from hedging against potential price increases as the market adjusts.
The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with significant factors impacting both supply and demand. The fundamental balance suggests a modest increase in supply, while the weather outlook indicates a strong cooling demand across regions. Analysts should note the divergence in sentiment across commodities, with natural gas showing signs of slight bullishness while crude oil sentiment remains bearish. This divergence may lead to varying strategies across different sectors.