Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.64
MA(20): $3.48
MACD: 0.0507
Signal: 0.0251
Days since crossover: 9
Value: 50.4
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 4,349
Avg (20d): 144,660
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 58.65
%D: 76.14
ADX: 16.5
+DI: 20.28
-DI: 16.03
Value: -41.35
Upper: 3.86
Middle: 3.48
Lower: 3.11
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.3 | 100.1 | 99.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.77 |
| Total Supply | 112.4 | 112.5 | 105.4 | 103.9 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.7 | 21.47 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.6 | 31.7 | 35.6 | 32.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.8 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 13.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.13 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 96.2 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 89.83 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.2 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 14.07 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.901 EUR/MWh (-0.140). JKM prices decreased to 12.440 USD/MMBtu (-0.005). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.539 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-10
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-10
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-10
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 11.901 |
| AUG 25 | 12.038 |
| SEP 25 | 12.180 |
| OCT 25 | 12.339 |
| NOV 25 | 12.552 |
| DEC 25 | 12.662 |
| JAN 26 | 12.701 |
| FEB 26 | 12.703 |
| MAR 26 | 12.517 |
| APR 26 | 11.688 |
| MAY 26 | 11.408 |
| JUN 26 | 11.320 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.440 |
| AUG 25 | 12.500 |
| SEP 25 | 12.445 |
| OCT 25 | 12.550 |
| NOV 25 | 12.695 |
| DEC 25 | 13.030 |
| JAN 26 | 13.125 |
| FEB 26 | 13.075 |
| MAR 26 | 12.660 |
| APR 26 | 11.805 |
| MAY 26 | 11.595 |
| JUN 26 | 11.580 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-11 | $3.55 | $3.26 | $3.84 |
| 2025-06-12 | $3.55 | $3.25 | $3.84 |
| 2025-06-13 | $3.53 | $3.23 | $3.82 |
| 2025-06-14 | $3.54 | $3.25 | $3.83 |
| 2025-06-15 | $3.55 | $3.25 | $3.84 |
Current market conditions are characterized by a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 1/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 3.39 and resistance at 3.56, suggesting limited volatility in the near term. The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.42%, with a trading range of 3.26 to 3.84. Traders should watch for short-term opportunities around these levels, but remain cautious given the neutral sentiment across the market.
The fundamental balance stands at 16.20 BCFD with a slight increase of +1.00, indicating a stable supply-demand equilibrium. However, the neutral sentiment for natural gas and crude oil suggests a cautious approach to production planning. Producers may consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations, especially given the mixed news sentiment surrounding crude oil inventories and OPEC+ output.
With the weather outlook showing a predominance of cooling demand (CDD: 12.2 overall), consumers can expect moderate cooling needs, particularly in the South and West regions. However, the neutral market sentiment and stable fundamental balance imply that while costs may fluctuate, supply reliability remains intact. Consumers should consider procurement strategies to lock in prices before any potential upward shifts in the market.
The current market presents a neutral sentiment overall, with key driving factors including a stable fundamental balance and a mixed weather outlook. The technical indicators suggest limited immediate volatility with Fibonacci levels guiding traders. Analysts should monitor the ML price forecast and news sentiment for shifts that may indicate a change in market dynamics, especially with crude oil trends impacting the overall energy landscape.