Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.61
MA(20): $3.49
MACD: 0.068
Signal: 0.0205
Days since crossover: 8
Value: 57.32
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 4,414
Avg (20d): 143,472
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 90.56
%D: 89.84
ADX: 17.49
+DI: 22.24
-DI: 12.29
Value: -9.44
Upper: 3.88
Middle: 3.49
Lower: 3.1
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.3 | 100.1 | 99.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.77 |
| Total Supply | 112.4 | 112.5 | 105.4 | 103.9 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.7 | 21.47 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.6 | 31.7 | 35.6 | 32.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.8 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 13.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.13 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 96.2 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 89.83 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.2 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 14.07 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.041 EUR/MWh (-0.091). JKM prices increased to 12.445 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.404 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-08
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-08
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-08
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.041 |
| AUG 25 | 12.218 |
| SEP 25 | 12.356 |
| OCT 25 | 12.493 |
| NOV 25 | 12.671 |
| DEC 25 | 12.788 |
| JAN 26 | 12.827 |
| FEB 26 | 12.828 |
| MAR 26 | 12.638 |
| APR 26 | 11.773 |
| MAY 26 | 11.487 |
| JUN 26 | 11.408 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.445 |
| AUG 25 | 12.645 |
| SEP 25 | 12.625 |
| OCT 25 | 12.725 |
| NOV 25 | 12.840 |
| DEC 25 | 13.185 |
| JAN 26 | 13.235 |
| FEB 26 | 13.210 |
| MAR 26 | 12.775 |
| APR 26 | 11.910 |
| MAY 26 | 11.695 |
| JUN 26 | 11.690 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-08 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-09 | $3.76 | $3.46 | $4.05 |
| 2025-06-10 | $3.76 | $3.47 | $4.05 |
| 2025-06-11 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.04 |
Current market conditions suggest a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 16.20 BCFD. The technical indicators show support at 3.72 and resistance at 3.96, indicating a potential range for price movements. The ML forecast predicts a slight decrease of 0.88%, suggesting short-term volatility may present opportunities for traders to capitalize on price fluctuations.
The neutral market sentiment and a slight increase in fundamental balance may impact production planning. Producers should consider the hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines, especially with the cooling demand forecasted in several regions. The positive sentiment around crude oil demand amidst supply disruptions could provide a buffer for pricing stability.
With a neutral overall market sentiment, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand, which may help stabilize costs in the short term. However, the increased fundamental balance suggests that supply reliability could be at risk, necessitating strategic procurement or hedging considerations to manage expenses effectively.
The market presents a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance showing a slight increase. Key driving factors include bullish sentiment in crude oil demand due to supply disruptions, contrasted by bearish indicators in natural gas pricing forecasts. Analysts should monitor the weather patterns and machine learning forecasts for shifts in market outlook, as these factors could significantly influence pricing dynamics in the coming days.