Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.57
MA(20): $3.5
MACD: 0.0587
Signal: 0.0086
Days since crossover: 7
Value: 58.59
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 208,764
Avg (20d): 152,000
Ratio: 1.37
%K: 95.41
%D: 90.58
ADX: 16.62
+DI: 22.85
-DI: 12.63
Value: -4.59
Upper: 3.89
Middle: 3.5
Lower: 3.1
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.3 | 100.1 | 99.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.77 |
| Total Supply | 112.4 | 112.5 | 105.4 | 103.9 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.7 | 21.47 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.6 | 31.7 | 35.6 | 32.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.8 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 13.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.13 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 96.2 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 89.83 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.2 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 14.07 |
TTF prices decreased to 12.041 EUR/MWh (-0.091). JKM prices increased to 12.445 USD/MMBtu (+0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.404 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-07
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-07
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-07
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.041 |
| AUG 25 | 12.218 |
| SEP 25 | 12.356 |
| OCT 25 | 12.493 |
| NOV 25 | 12.671 |
| DEC 25 | 12.788 |
| JAN 26 | 12.827 |
| FEB 26 | 12.828 |
| MAR 26 | 12.638 |
| APR 26 | 11.773 |
| MAY 26 | 11.487 |
| JUN 26 | 11.408 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.445 |
| AUG 25 | 12.645 |
| SEP 25 | 12.625 |
| OCT 25 | 12.725 |
| NOV 25 | 12.840 |
| DEC 25 | 13.185 |
| JAN 26 | 13.235 |
| FEB 26 | 13.210 |
| MAR 26 | 12.775 |
| APR 26 | 11.910 |
| MAY 26 | 11.695 |
| JUN 26 | 11.690 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-08 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.04 |
| 2025-06-09 | $3.76 | $3.46 | $4.05 |
| 2025-06-10 | $3.76 | $3.47 | $4.05 |
| 2025-06-11 | $3.75 | $3.46 | $4.04 |
Current market conditions suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of 1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.72 and resistance at 3.96. The short-term forecast indicates a potential drop of 0.88%, with a trading range between 3.46 and 4.04. This presents opportunities for short positions, particularly if prices approach resistance.
The fundamental balance is currently at 16.20 BCFD, reflecting a slight increase. Producers should consider this in their production planning and adjust hedging strategies accordingly given the neutral market sentiment. The increased demand sentiment (+0.175) could support production increases, particularly in regions experiencing moderate cooling demand.
With low heating demand expected and a cooling-dominated outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term. The market sentiment and the expected decrease in natural gas prices may provide a window for favorable procurement opportunities. However, the increase in storage levels could indicate supply reliability risks if demand does not align with forecasts.
The market exhibits a neutral sentiment overall, with key factors influencing prices being the technical indicators and the fundamental balance. The ML price forecast suggests a downward trend, while the demand sentiment remains relatively strong. Analysts should monitor the evolving weather patterns, particularly in regions with high cooling demand, as these could shift market dynamics significantly.