Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.1 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.57
MA(20): $3.5
MACD: 0.0588
Signal: 0.0087
Days since crossover: 7
Value: 58.62
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 157,226
Avg (20d): 149,423
Ratio: 1.05
%K: 95.55
%D: 90.63
ADX: 16.62
+DI: 22.85
-DI: 12.63
Value: -4.45
Upper: 3.89
Middle: 3.5
Lower: 3.1
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.3 | 100.1 | 99.1 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.77 |
| Total Supply | 112.4 | 112.5 | 105.4 | 103.9 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.4 | 22.6 | 21.7 | 21.47 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.6 | 31.7 | 35.6 | 32.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 10.8 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 9.8 |
| LNG Exports | 14.4 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 13.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.13 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 96.2 | 97.3 | 95.9 | 89.83 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.2 | 15.2 | 9.5 | 14.07 |
TTF prices increased to 12.132 EUR/MWh (+0.222). JKM prices increased to 12.415 USD/MMBtu (+0.045). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.283 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-06
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-06
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-06
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.132 |
| AUG 25 | 12.332 |
| SEP 25 | 12.460 |
| OCT 25 | 12.606 |
| NOV 25 | 12.757 |
| DEC 25 | 12.860 |
| JAN 26 | 12.903 |
| FEB 26 | 12.904 |
| MAR 26 | 12.717 |
| APR 26 | 11.846 |
| MAY 26 | 11.559 |
| JUN 26 | 11.488 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.415 |
| AUG 25 | 12.670 |
| SEP 25 | 12.670 |
| OCT 25 | 12.770 |
| NOV 25 | 12.870 |
| DEC 25 | 13.210 |
| JAN 26 | 13.275 |
| FEB 26 | 13.170 |
| MAR 26 | 12.810 |
| APR 26 | 11.940 |
| MAY 26 | 11.730 |
| JUN 26 | 11.735 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-06 | $3.7 | $3.4 | $4.0 |
| 2025-06-07 | $3.67 | $3.37 | $3.98 |
| 2025-06-08 | $3.67 | $3.37 | $3.97 |
| 2025-06-09 | $3.67 | $3.37 | $3.97 |
| 2025-06-10 | $3.68 | $3.37 | $3.98 |
The current technical interpretation is neutral, with a Fibonacci support level at 3.72 and resistance at 3.96. Given the fundamental balance of 16.20 BCFD with a slight increase, traders should be cautious about volatility. The cooling demand across all regions suggests potential upward pressure on prices, with the ML forecast predicting a slight increase of 0.55% within the range of 3.4 to 4.0. Short-term opportunities may arise if prices approach resistance, while risks persist around fluctuating demand and sentiment.
The neutral market sentiment indicates a stable environment for production planning. Producers should consider the implications of the fundamental balance and the recent headlines indicating higher demand for crude oil, particularly due to supply disruptions. Hedging strategies should account for potential price increases driven by cooling demand and geopolitical factors. Monitoring the sentiment around natural gas, which is experiencing lower export demand, will be crucial for adjusting production strategies.
Consumers should remain vigilant regarding potential cost fluctuations in the energy market. The cooling demand forecast suggests that heating costs may remain low, but the fundamental balance indicates a slight increase in supply, which could lead to price volatility. The recent news highlights reduced export demand for natural gas, which could impact supply reliability. Consumers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price increases, particularly if demand spikes unexpectedly.
The current market picture presents a neutral sentiment overall, with key driving factors identified. The increased demand for crude oil due to supply disruptions contrasts with the lower export demand for natural gas. The cooling demand across all regions could support price stability in the short term, but analysts should monitor the impact of geopolitical tensions and weather forecasts closely. The ML price forecast suggests a potential rise, indicating a need for stakeholders to remain adaptable to shifts in market dynamics.