Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.44
MA(20): $3.47
MACD: 0.0134
Signal: -0.0278
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 56.84
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,982
Avg (20d): 144,046
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 92.94
%D: 77.13
ADX: 14.1
+DI: 23.85
-DI: 15.14
Value: -7.06
Upper: 3.82
Middle: 3.47
Lower: 3.12
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 111.8 | 104.9 | 103.43 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 | 21.7 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 33.1 | 34.4 | 31.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 10.87 |
| LNG Exports | 15.7 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 97.3 | 98.2 | 94.0 | 90.4 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.03 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.638 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 12.300 USD/MMBtu (+0.145). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.662 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-06-03
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-03
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-03
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.638 |
| JUL 25 | 11.718 |
| AUG 25 | 11.855 |
| SEP 25 | 12.004 |
| OCT 25 | 12.145 |
| NOV 25 | 12.336 |
| DEC 25 | 12.450 |
| JAN 26 | 12.491 |
| FEB 26 | 12.494 |
| MAR 26 | 12.313 |
| APR 26 | 11.494 |
| MAY 26 | 11.202 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.300 |
| AUG 25 | 12.140 |
| SEP 25 | 12.195 |
| OCT 25 | 12.240 |
| NOV 25 | 12.405 |
| DEC 25 | 12.720 |
| JAN 26 | 12.830 |
| FEB 26 | 12.790 |
| MAR 26 | 12.390 |
| APR 26 | 11.575 |
| MAY 26 | 11.360 |
| JUN 26 | 11.355 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-04 | $3.75 | $3.44 | $4.05 |
| 2025-06-05 | $3.73 | $3.42 | $4.03 |
| 2025-06-06 | $3.74 | $3.44 | $4.05 |
| 2025-06-07 | $3.72 | $3.42 | $4.03 |
| 2025-06-08 | $3.72 | $3.42 | $4.03 |
The current market sentiment is neutral with a technical score of 1/5, indicating limited directional strength. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.64 and resistance at 3.88. With a predicted price increase of 0.64%, traders should monitor for potential short-term opportunities near these support and resistance levels.
The fundamental balance shows an increase of 1.60 BCFD, which could suggest rising supply pressures. Given the cooling demand outlook, especially in the South and West regions, be cautious of volatility as demand shifts could impact pricing.
The market's neutral sentiment reflects a stable production environment, particularly with OPEC+ confirming a steady output increase. This indicates potential for hedging strategies to be considered in response to market fluctuations.
Given the fundamental balance of 15.20 BCFD, producers should assess their production rates and consider aligning them with the cooling demand expected in various regions. The news around OPEC+ could support prices, suggesting a cautious approach to scaling operations.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral. The cooling demand forecast indicates low heating demand but moderate cooling demand, which could affect energy procurement strategies.
With the fundamental balance showing a slight increase, supply reliability appears stable, yet consumers should remain vigilant to any shifts in demand dynamics, particularly in the South and West regions where cooling demand is expected to rise.
The current market landscape presents a neutral sentiment across both oil and natural gas sectors. The strongest driving factor appears to be the fundamental balance of 15.20 BCFD, indicating a slight oversupply that may pressure prices.
The cooling demand forecast suggests a divergence in regional energy needs, particularly in the South and West, which may influence regional pricing strategies. Analysts should monitor OPEC+ developments closely, as any changes in output could shift market dynamics significantly.