Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.41
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.0059
Signal: -0.0376
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 57.27
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,910
Avg (20d): 142,160
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 94.71
%D: 66.3
ADX: 13.51
+DI: 24.37
-DI: 15.27
Value: -5.29
Upper: 3.81
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 3.12
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 111.8 | 104.9 | 103.43 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 | 21.7 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 33.1 | 34.4 | 31.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 10.87 |
| LNG Exports | 15.7 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 97.3 | 98.2 | 94.0 | 90.4 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.03 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.638 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 12.155 USD/MMBtu (-0.140). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.517 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-06-02
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-02
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-02
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.638 |
| JUL 25 | 11.388 |
| AUG 25 | 11.518 |
| SEP 25 | 11.665 |
| OCT 25 | 11.796 |
| NOV 25 | 11.997 |
| DEC 25 | 12.100 |
| JAN 26 | 12.134 |
| FEB 26 | 12.135 |
| MAR 26 | 11.963 |
| APR 26 | 11.213 |
| MAY 26 | 10.935 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.155 |
| AUG 25 | 11.715 |
| SEP 25 | 11.770 |
| OCT 25 | 11.870 |
| NOV 25 | 12.040 |
| DEC 25 | 12.335 |
| JAN 26 | 12.435 |
| FEB 26 | 12.410 |
| MAR 26 | 12.020 |
| APR 26 | 11.345 |
| MAY 26 | 11.140 |
| JUN 26 | 11.135 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-03 | $3.67 | $3.36 | $3.97 |
| 2025-06-04 | $3.7 | $3.39 | $4.0 |
| 2025-06-05 | $3.67 | $3.37 | $3.98 |
| 2025-06-06 | $3.69 | $3.39 | $4.0 |
| 2025-06-07 | $3.67 | $3.37 | $3.97 |
The current market presents a neutral technical interpretation with a score of 1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 3.64 and resistance at 3.88. The ML price forecast indicates a potential downward movement of 0.75%, suggesting a short-term volatility risk. Given the overall neutral sentiment and the cooling demand forecast, traders might find opportunities in short positions or hedging strategies around the support and resistance levels.
The fundamental balance is currently at 15.20 BCFD with a change of +1.60, indicating a slight increase in supply. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning in response to the neutral market sentiment and the recent news surrounding OPEC+ production increases. Hedging strategies may need to be revisited to mitigate potential price declines, especially in light of the downward ML forecast.
With the weather outlook indicating moderate cooling demand and low heating demand, consumers may experience stable supply but should remain cautious of potential cost fluctuations as cooling demand peaks. The neutral sentiment in the market suggests that procurement strategies should account for possible price dips, particularly around the support level of 3.64. It may be prudent to explore hedging options to safeguard against price volatility in the upcoming cooling season.
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment overall, with key drivers being the fundamental balance of 15.20 BCFD and the technical indicators showing a support level at 3.64. The downward ML forecast and the cooling demand pattern suggest a cautious outlook. Analysts should focus on monitoring geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production strategies, as these could shift market dynamics significantly.