Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.39
MA(20): $3.45
MACD: -0.022
Signal: -0.0408
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 52.53
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 4,484
Avg (20d): 144,694
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 67.46
%D: 57.21
ADX: 12.5
+DI: 19.63
-DI: 16.44
Value: -32.54
Upper: 3.78
Middle: 3.45
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 111.8 | 104.9 | 103.43 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 | 21.7 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 33.1 | 34.4 | 31.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 10.87 |
| LNG Exports | 15.7 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 97.3 | 98.2 | 94.0 | 90.4 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.03 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.638 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 12.155 USD/MMBtu (-0.140). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.517 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-06-01
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-06-01
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-06-01
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.638 |
| JUL 25 | 11.388 |
| AUG 25 | 11.518 |
| SEP 25 | 11.665 |
| OCT 25 | 11.796 |
| NOV 25 | 11.997 |
| DEC 25 | 12.100 |
| JAN 26 | 12.134 |
| FEB 26 | 12.135 |
| MAR 26 | 11.963 |
| APR 26 | 11.213 |
| MAY 26 | 10.935 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.155 |
| AUG 25 | 11.715 |
| SEP 25 | 11.770 |
| OCT 25 | 11.870 |
| NOV 25 | 12.040 |
| DEC 25 | 12.335 |
| JAN 26 | 12.435 |
| FEB 26 | 12.410 |
| MAR 26 | 12.020 |
| APR 26 | 11.345 |
| MAY 26 | 11.140 |
| JUN 26 | 11.135 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-01 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-02 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.77 |
| 2025-06-03 | $3.44 | $3.15 | $3.74 |
| 2025-06-04 | $3.45 | $3.16 | $3.75 |
Current market data suggests a neutral sentiment, with a technical score of 1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64, indicating a tight trading range. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.07%, suggesting short-term opportunities within the range of 3.16 to 3.74. Traders should remain cautious of potential volatility as the market sentiment remains neutral.
The fundamental balance is currently at 15.20 BCFD, which has increased by 1.60. This indicates a growing supply, which may impact production planning. The neutral sentiment in the market suggests that producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price fluctuations. The recent news about increased oil output by OPEC+ might lead to further supply pressure, requiring careful monitoring of market dynamics.
The weather outlook indicates low heating demand and moderate cooling demand, which could lead to stable supply conditions in the near term. However, with the neutral sentiment and recent declines in LNG exports, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for short-term volatility in natural gas prices, particularly given the current fundamental balance metrics.
The market currently exhibits a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance indicating a slight increase in supply. The technical indicators suggest a cautious approach, with the Fibonacci levels indicating potential resistance at 3.64. The dominant cooling demand across regions may support natural gas prices in the short term, despite the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply dynamics and weather patterns, as these will be critical in forecasting market movements.