Total supply increased by 0.7 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.9 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.2 BCFD
MA(9): $3.33
MA(20): $3.46
MACD: -0.0429
Signal: -0.048
Days since crossover: 1
Value: 52.71
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 1,537
Avg (20d): 141,510
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 57.95
%D: 37.56
ADX: 12.97
+DI: 20.48
-DI: 17.76
Value: -42.05
Upper: 3.79
Middle: 3.46
Lower: 3.13
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.8 | 106.1 | 99.1 | 98.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 6.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 112.5 | 111.8 | 104.9 | 103.43 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.4 | 21.9 | 21.7 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.7 | 33.1 | 34.4 | 31.97 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 10.87 |
| LNG Exports | 15.7 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 12.8 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.13 |
| Total Demand | 97.3 | 98.2 | 94.0 | 90.4 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.2 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.03 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.659 EUR/MWh (-0.014). JKM prices decreased to 12.465 USD/MMBtu (-0.030). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.806 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-29
Front month: JUL 25
As of 2025-05-29
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-29
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.659 |
| JUL 25 | 12.224 |
| AUG 25 | 12.311 |
| SEP 25 | 12.450 |
| OCT 25 | 12.568 |
| NOV 25 | 12.747 |
| DEC 25 | 12.839 |
| JAN 26 | 12.870 |
| FEB 26 | 12.874 |
| MAR 26 | 12.701 |
| APR 26 | 11.862 |
| MAY 26 | 11.561 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUL 25 | 12.465 |
| AUG 25 | 12.500 |
| SEP 25 | 12.565 |
| OCT 25 | 12.605 |
| NOV 25 | 12.755 |
| DEC 25 | 13.050 |
| JAN 26 | 13.145 |
| FEB 26 | 13.160 |
| MAR 26 | 12.775 |
| APR 26 | 11.950 |
| MAY 26 | 11.725 |
| JUN 26 | 11.710 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-30 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.78 |
| 2025-05-31 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.78 |
| 2025-06-01 | $3.48 | $3.18 | $3.79 |
| 2025-06-02 | $3.51 | $3.2 | $3.81 |
| 2025-06-03 | $3.48 | $3.17 | $3.78 |
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decrease of 1.17%, with a range between 3.18 and 3.78 in the short term.
Given the cooling demand dominating across regions, particularly in the South and West, traders should monitor the potential for volatility but remain cautious due to the neutral sentiment and uncertainty in demand shifts.
The fundamental balance shows a slight increase in demand at 15.20 BCFD (change: +1.60), suggesting a need for careful production planning. The neutral sentiment in the news indicates that while demand is stable, there are underlying risks due to global supply uncertainties, particularly for crude oil.
Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to account for potential price fluctuations and the uncertainty highlighted by recent headlines regarding OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions.
With low heating demand expected and moderate cooling needs, consumers may experience stable pricing in the near term. However, the potential for cost fluctuations exists due to the fundamental balance change and the neutral market sentiment.
Utilities and industrial consumers should keep an eye on procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with unexpected supply disruptions or price surges.
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with mixed signals from technical indicators and fundamental data. The cooling demand is a key driver, particularly in warmer regions, while geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties for crude oil add complexity to the outlook.
Analysts should focus on the interplay between production adjustments and market sentiment to identify potential shifts in the energy landscape.