Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.51
MA(20): $3.38
MACD: -0.0464
Signal: -0.036
Days since crossover: 1
Value: 38.81
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,735
Avg (20d): 137,359
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 3.96
%D: 22.66
ADX: 18.17
+DI: 17.7
-DI: 27.04
Value: -96.04
Upper: 3.89
Middle: 3.38
Lower: 2.86
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 105.0 | 98.8 | 98.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 110.4 | 109.9 | 104.3 | 103.5 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.2 | 30.1 | 33.1 | 30.77 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.0 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 13.37 |
| LNG Exports | 15.9 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 94.4 | 95.0 | 95.2 | 91.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.0 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 11.77 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.399 EUR/MWh (-0.035). JKM prices remained stable to 11.498 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.099 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-19
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-19
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-19
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.399 |
| JUL 25 | 11.552 |
| AUG 25 | 11.636 |
| SEP 25 | 11.797 |
| OCT 25 | 11.938 |
| NOV 25 | 12.162 |
| DEC 25 | 12.250 |
| JAN 26 | 12.294 |
| FEB 26 | 12.296 |
| MAR 26 | 12.137 |
| APR 26 | 11.252 |
| MAY 26 | 10.998 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.498 |
| JUL 25 | 11.895 |
| AUG 25 | 11.920 |
| SEP 25 | 12.020 |
| OCT 25 | 12.020 |
| NOV 25 | 12.260 |
| DEC 25 | 12.560 |
| JAN 26 | 12.700 |
| FEB 26 | 12.680 |
| MAR 26 | 12.270 |
| APR 26 | 11.470 |
| MAY 26 | 11.290 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-20 | $3.12 | $2.82 | $3.42 |
| 2025-05-21 | $3.13 | $2.83 | $3.42 |
| 2025-05-22 | $3.13 | $2.83 | $3.42 |
| 2025-05-23 | $3.12 | $2.82 | $3.42 |
| 2025-05-24 | $3.14 | $2.84 | $3.44 |
The market is currently showing a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.86 and resistance at 3.34, indicating a range-bound market. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.28%, indicating a possible short-term opportunity. However, the overall market sentiment remains neutral, suggesting that traders should remain vigilant for any shifts in demand or supply that could impact prices.
With a fundamental balance of 16.00 BCFD and a change of +1.10, producers may need to consider adjusting their production levels to align with the current supply dynamics. The bearish sentiment in the market, coupled with rising output trends, suggests a need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price declines. Producers should also monitor the cooling demand in the South and West regions, as this may influence regional production strategies and market positioning.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 2.82 to 3.42. With low heating demand expected in residential and commercial sectors, and moderate cooling demand in power generation, it’s crucial for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging against price increases, especially with the anticipated weather patterns favoring cooling in specific regions.
The current market landscape presents a bearish sentiment driven by rising output and a fundamental balance that suggests oversupply. Analysts should focus on the implications of the cooling demand across various regions, particularly in the South and West, which may shift demand dynamics. Furthermore, the neutral market sentiment and the slight upward ML price forecast indicate a potential for short-term volatility, warranting close monitoring of geopolitical factors and news sentiment that may influence market movements.