Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.51
MA(20): $3.38
MACD: -0.0484
Signal: -0.0364
Days since crossover: 1
Value: 38.23
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 157
Avg (20d): 137,796
Ratio: 0.0
%K: 0.55
%D: 21.53
ADX: 18.17
+DI: 17.7
-DI: 27.04
Value: -99.45
Upper: 3.89
Middle: 3.38
Lower: 2.86
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 105.0 | 98.8 | 98.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 110.4 | 109.9 | 104.3 | 103.5 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.2 | 30.1 | 33.1 | 30.77 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.0 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 13.37 |
| LNG Exports | 15.9 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 94.4 | 95.0 | 95.2 | 91.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.0 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 11.77 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.399 EUR/MWh (-0.035). JKM prices remained stable to 11.498 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.099 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-19
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-19
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-19
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.399 |
| JUL 25 | 11.552 |
| AUG 25 | 11.636 |
| SEP 25 | 11.797 |
| OCT 25 | 11.938 |
| NOV 25 | 12.162 |
| DEC 25 | 12.250 |
| JAN 26 | 12.294 |
| FEB 26 | 12.296 |
| MAR 26 | 12.137 |
| APR 26 | 11.252 |
| MAY 26 | 10.998 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.498 |
| JUL 25 | 11.895 |
| AUG 25 | 11.920 |
| SEP 25 | 12.020 |
| OCT 25 | 12.020 |
| NOV 25 | 12.260 |
| DEC 25 | 12.560 |
| JAN 26 | 12.700 |
| FEB 26 | 12.680 |
| MAR 26 | 12.270 |
| APR 26 | 11.470 |
| MAY 26 | 11.290 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | $3.34 | $3.05 | $3.64 |
| 2025-05-18 | $3.33 | $3.04 | $3.63 |
| 2025-05-19 | $3.34 | $3.05 | $3.63 |
| 2025-05-20 | $3.35 | $3.06 | $3.65 |
| 2025-05-21 | $3.35 | $3.06 | $3.65 |
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish outlook, indicated by a technical score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.86 and resistance at 3.34, which may provide critical points for trading strategies. The ML price forecast indicates a slight uptick of 0.29%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities; however, the overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating caution is warranted. Volatility may arise from fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics, particularly in light of recent news regarding rising output pressures.
The fundamental balance of 16.00 BCFD with a slight increase of +1.10 points suggests a growing supply relative to demand, which may impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider adjusting production plans in response to the bearish sentiment reflected in recent news articles about falling natural gas futures due to increased output. Hedging strategies may need to account for potential price declines, especially given the neutral overall market sentiment and the observed low heating demand in residential and commercial sectors. Monitoring regional demand patterns, particularly in the South and West where cooling demand is high, will be essential.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the current market conditions. With a fundamental balance indicating a supply increase, there may be opportunities for lower procurement costs; however, the bearish market sentiment could lead to volatility. The moderate cooling demand forecast suggests that energy consumption may rise in certain regions, impacting supply reliability. Utilities should consider short-term hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price spikes as the weather transitions.
The market is currently characterized by a moderately bearish sentiment, with key technical indicators pointing to potential price resistance at 3.34. The fundamental balance of 16.00 BCFD indicates a slight oversupply, which could affect market dynamics moving forward. The mixed news sentiment, particularly around natural gas futures and rising output, highlights the need for close monitoring of supply trends. Analysts should focus on regional demand variations, especially in areas with significant cooling demand, as these may drive shifts in pricing and consumption patterns.