Total supply increased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 16.0 BCFD
MA(9): $3.57
MA(20): $3.37
MACD: -0.0073
Signal: -0.0368
Days since crossover: 12
Value: 44.8
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,056
Avg (20d): 138,662
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 50.87
%D: 65.25
ADX: 18.75
+DI: 20.34
-DI: 21.71
Value: -49.13
Upper: 3.89
Middle: 3.37
Lower: 2.84
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 105.0 | 98.8 | 98.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 110.4 | 109.9 | 104.3 | 103.5 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 21.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.2 | 30.1 | 33.1 | 30.77 |
| Residential & Commercial | 12.0 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 13.37 |
| LNG Exports | 15.9 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 12.47 |
| Mexico Exports | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.03 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Total Demand | 94.4 | 95.0 | 95.2 | 91.73 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 16.0 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 11.77 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.407 EUR/MWh (-0.096). JKM prices increased to 11.475 USD/MMBtu (+0.015). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.068 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-15
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-15
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-15
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.407 |
| JUL 25 | 11.585 |
| AUG 25 | 11.669 |
| SEP 25 | 11.837 |
| OCT 25 | 11.971 |
| NOV 25 | 12.197 |
| DEC 25 | 12.273 |
| JAN 26 | 12.303 |
| FEB 26 | 12.311 |
| MAR 26 | 12.146 |
| APR 26 | 11.234 |
| MAY 26 | 10.976 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.475 |
| JUL 25 | 11.885 |
| AUG 25 | 11.880 |
| SEP 25 | 11.980 |
| OCT 25 | 12.025 |
| NOV 25 | 12.245 |
| DEC 25 | 12.535 |
| JAN 26 | 12.650 |
| FEB 26 | 12.640 |
| MAR 26 | 12.280 |
| APR 26 | 11.425 |
| MAY 26 | 11.245 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-16 | $3.35 | $3.05 | $3.65 |
| 2025-05-17 | $3.36 | $3.06 | $3.66 |
| 2025-05-18 | $3.34 | $3.04 | $3.65 |
| 2025-05-19 | $3.35 | $3.05 | $3.65 |
| 2025-05-20 | $3.36 | $3.06 | $3.67 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment overall, with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.34, while resistance is at 3.64. Traders should monitor the price range forecasted by ML models, indicating a potential downward trend of 0.35% with a range of 3.05 to 3.65. This could present short-term opportunities for trading on volatility as prices approach resistance or support levels.
With a fundamental balance of 16.00 BCFD and a slight increase of +1.10, producers may need to adjust production strategies to align with demand forecasts. The current market sentiment reflects concerns over oversupply, particularly in crude oil, as indicated by recent news articles. This suggests a need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines and manage operational costs.
Consumers should be aware of moderate heating demand expected due to current weather conditions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions. However, the low cooling demand may indicate stable prices in the short term. With natural gas prices trending down due to less demand and significant storage builds, it may be beneficial for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies to lock in lower rates before any potential price fluctuations.
The market presents a neutral outlook with mixed signals. The fundamental balance remains relatively stable, but the oversupply concerns in crude oil and a downward trend in natural gas prices suggest caution. Analysts should pay close attention to weather patterns and their impact on demand, as well as shifts in market sentiment that could influence future price directions.