Total supply decreased by 0.5 BCFD | Total demand increased by 0.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 14.8 BCFD
MA(9): $3.4
MA(20): $3.33
MACD: -0.0573
Signal: -0.133
Days since crossover: 6
Value: 54.56
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 3,233
Avg (20d): 156,011
Ratio: 0.02
%K: 87.06
%D: 77.65
ADX: 22.24
+DI: 23.02
-DI: 19.75
Value: -12.94
Upper: 3.83
Middle: 3.33
Lower: 2.83
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 105.7 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 110.8 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.6 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 13.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.4 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 96.0 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 14.8 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices increased to 11.420 EUR/MWh (+0.495). JKM prices increased to 11.315 USD/MMBtu (+0.055). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.105 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-07
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-07
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-07
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.420 |
| JUL 25 | 11.610 |
| AUG 25 | 11.699 |
| SEP 25 | 11.869 |
| OCT 25 | 11.991 |
| NOV 25 | 12.189 |
| DEC 25 | 12.258 |
| JAN 26 | 12.270 |
| FEB 26 | 12.271 |
| MAR 26 | 12.085 |
| APR 26 | 11.165 |
| MAY 26 | 10.935 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.315 |
| JUL 25 | 11.645 |
| AUG 25 | 11.745 |
| SEP 25 | 11.890 |
| OCT 25 | 12.010 |
| NOV 25 | 12.215 |
| DEC 25 | 12.500 |
| JAN 26 | 12.575 |
| FEB 26 | 12.540 |
| MAR 26 | 12.270 |
| APR 26 | 11.390 |
| MAY 26 | 11.185 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-08 | $3.6 | $3.28 | $3.91 |
| 2025-05-09 | $3.57 | $3.26 | $3.88 |
| 2025-05-10 | $3.59 | $3.27 | $3.9 |
| 2025-05-11 | $3.6 | $3.29 | $3.91 |
| 2025-05-12 | $3.58 | $3.27 | $3.89 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment overall, with a technical score of 0/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 3.34 and resistance at 3.64, indicating a tight trading range. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.70%, with a trading range of 3.28 to 3.91. Traders should monitor for volatility, particularly around the support and resistance levels, as this could present short-term opportunities or risks.
The fundamental balance is currently at 14.80 BCFD with a slight decrease of 0.80. Given the neutral market sentiment and the mixed weather outlook, producers should consider adjusting production levels accordingly. The news sentiment around natural gas is slightly positive due to the return of Freeport LNG, but overall, the market sentiment is neutral. This indicates a cautious approach to hedging strategies may be prudent as market conditions remain uncertain.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral. The weather outlook indicates low heating demand but moderate cooling demand across various regions, which could affect procurement strategies. The supply situation suggests a slight decrease in demand, but the ML price forecast indicates a downward trend, which may present opportunities for cost savings. However, monitoring supply reliability is crucial given the current market dynamics.
The market is currently in a neutral state, with a fundamental balance of 14.80 BCFD. The overall market sentiment is also neutral, with a slight positive sentiment towards natural gas driven by recent news. Key driving factors include the mixed weather outlook, which shows cooling demand dominating in most regions, while heating demand is low. The upcoming price forecasts suggest potential bearish trends, indicating a need for close monitoring of market shifts that could impact future supply and demand dynamics.