Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.21
MA(20): $3.35
MACD: -0.1207
Signal: -0.1865
Days since crossover: 3
Value: 55.86
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 134,610
Avg (20d): 178,601
Ratio: 0.75
%K: 99.26
%D: 77.97
ADX: 25.2
+DI: 25.77
-DI: 20.32
Value: -0.74
Upper: 3.89
Middle: 3.35
Lower: 2.8
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices remained stable to 11.658 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 11.260 USD/MMBtu (+0.045). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.398 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-05-02
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-05-02
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-05-02
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.658 |
| JUN 25 | 10.636 |
| JUL 25 | 10.709 |
| AUG 25 | 10.799 |
| SEP 25 | 10.952 |
| OCT 25 | 11.089 |
| NOV 25 | 11.305 |
| DEC 25 | 11.395 |
| JAN 26 | 11.418 |
| FEB 26 | 11.435 |
| MAR 26 | 11.285 |
| APR 26 | 10.440 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.260 |
| JUL 25 | 10.775 |
| AUG 25 | 10.905 |
| SEP 25 | 11.030 |
| OCT 25 | 11.195 |
| NOV 25 | 11.450 |
| DEC 25 | 11.720 |
| JAN 26 | 11.825 |
| FEB 26 | 11.815 |
| MAR 26 | 11.520 |
| APR 26 | 10.745 |
| MAY 26 | 10.555 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-02 | $3.49 | $3.18 | $3.79 |
| 2025-05-03 | $3.47 | $3.17 | $3.77 |
| 2025-05-04 | $3.46 | $3.15 | $3.76 |
| 2025-05-05 | $3.47 | $3.17 | $3.77 |
| 2025-05-06 | $3.45 | $3.15 | $3.76 |
Current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a Fibonacci support at 3.64 and resistance at 3.88. The fundamental balance is at 15.60 BCFD, showing a significant increase of +6.30, which may lead to increased volatility in the short term.
Moreover, the ML price forecast indicates a slight upward trend of 0.18%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities for traders to capitalize on price movements within the range of 3.18 to 3.79.
The current market sentiment remains neutral, but the fundamental balance indicates a significant increase in demand. Producers should consider adjusting production plans to meet this rising demand while also implementing hedging strategies to protect against potential price fluctuations.
With the weather outlook showing low heating demand in most regions, producers should focus on optimizing their operations to maximize output during periods of higher demand in the South and West regions.
Consumers should be aware of the potential cost fluctuations due to the current neutral sentiment in the market. With the weather outlook indicating low heating demand, procurement strategies should be revisited to ensure supply reliability, especially in the Northeast and Midwest where heating demands remain high.
Monitoring the fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD is crucial, as this could impact future pricing and availability of natural gas supplies.
The market presents a neutral outlook, with key indicators suggesting a balance between supply and demand. The fundamental balance of 15.60 BCFD and the weather outlook point towards low heating and cooling demands, which could stabilize prices in the near term.
Overall, the strongest driving factors appear to be bullish sentiment in natural gas due to lower output and higher demand, while crude oil faces bearish pressures from anticipated higher supply. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in these dynamics that could influence market direction.