Total supply decreased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 7.3 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 15.6 BCFD
MA(9): $3.18
MA(20): $3.56
MACD: -0.2602
Signal: -0.1925
Days since crossover: 30
Value: 29.9
Category: OVERSOLD
Current: 1,377
Avg (20d): 180,741
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 2.41
%D: 3.98
ADX: 29.97
+DI: 9.19
-DI: 28.42
Value: -97.59
Upper: 4.36
Middle: 3.56
Lower: 2.76
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 106.3 | 99.4 | 98.17 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 5.07 |
| Total Supply | 111.3 | 112.3 | 104.0 | 103.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 23.3 | 22.9 | 22.77 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.5 | 28.6 | 31.0 | 28.6 |
| Residential & Commercial | 14.1 | 21.1 | 14.7 | 18.03 |
| LNG Exports | 16.1 | 16.8 | 10.9 | 12.53 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Total Demand | 95.7 | 103.0 | 93.7 | 94.97 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 15.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 8.37 |
TTF prices decreased to 11.759 EUR/MWh (-0.040). JKM prices decreased to 11.660 USD/MMBtu (-0.110). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.099 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-24
Front month: JUN 25
As of 2025-04-24
JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-24
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.759 |
| JUN 25 | 11.407 |
| JUL 25 | 11.457 |
| AUG 25 | 11.565 |
| SEP 25 | 11.670 |
| OCT 25 | 11.761 |
| NOV 25 | 11.847 |
| DEC 25 | 11.916 |
| JAN 26 | 11.907 |
| FEB 26 | 11.900 |
| MAR 26 | 11.754 |
| APR 26 | 10.880 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 25 | 11.660 |
| JUL 25 | 11.570 |
| AUG 25 | 11.660 |
| SEP 25 | 11.735 |
| OCT 25 | 11.800 |
| NOV 25 | 11.935 |
| DEC 25 | 12.205 |
| JAN 26 | 12.225 |
| FEB 26 | 12.265 |
| MAR 26 | 11.940 |
| APR 26 | 11.080 |
| MAY 26 | 10.805 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-25 | $2.93 | $2.64 | $3.22 |
| 2025-04-26 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-27 | $2.95 | $2.65 | $3.24 |
| 2025-04-28 | $2.94 | $2.65 | $3.23 |
| 2025-04-29 | $2.95 | $2.66 | $3.24 |
Current market data indicates a neutral sentiment with a price forecast suggesting a slight decline of 0.02%. Traders should be cautious as prices are hovering near Fibonacci support at 2.91, while resistance is noted at 3.38. The fundamental balance shows an increase in supply to 15.60 BCFD, which may exert downward pressure on prices. Volatility may arise from upcoming weather patterns, particularly the moderate heating demand expected in residential and commercial sectors, which could create short-term trading opportunities.
Producers should consider the implications of the current market sentiment and the fundamental balance indicating a significant increase in supply. The hedging strategies may need to adjust in response to the potential for lower prices as the forecast suggests a downward trend. The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand, which may affect production schedules and inventory management. Producers are advised to monitor storage levels closely, as a significant build could further pressure prices.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices due to the current fundamental balance and weather outlook. The moderate heating demand suggests a stable supply; however, the market sentiment remains cautious. Utilities should evaluate their procurement strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, especially as the forecast indicates a slight decline in prices. Establishing flexible contracts may be beneficial in navigating these fluctuations.
The current market presents a neutral outlook with key driving factors including a fundamental supply increase and moderate heating demand across regions. The bearish sentiment in the crude oil sector, coupled with neutral sentiment in natural gas, suggests a mixed outlook. Analysts should focus on the interplay between weather forecasts and hedging strategies as critical components influencing market dynamics. The convergence of these factors may signal shifts in market sentiment, meriting close observation.