Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.3 BCFD
MA(9): $3.39
MA(20): $3.7
MACD: -0.2146
Signal: -0.1379
Days since crossover: 27
Value: 31.37
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 2,022
Avg (20d): 170,113
Ratio: 0.01
%K: 0.09
%D: 3.09
ADX: 25.01
+DI: 10.4
-DI: 27.7
Value: -99.91
Upper: 4.35
Middle: 3.7
Lower: 3.05
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 105.8 | 100.3 | 98.63 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.13 |
| Total Supply | 112.3 | 112.4 | 105.6 | 103.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.6 | 30.3 | 30.2 | 28.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.1 | 24.7 | 23.0 | 20.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 103.0 | 108.8 | 104.1 | 98.03 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 5.77 |
TTF prices increased to 11.901 EUR/MWh (+0.028). JKM prices remained stable to 12.462 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.561 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-21
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-21
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-21
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.901 |
| JUN 25 | 11.935 |
| JUL 25 | 12.003 |
| AUG 25 | 12.113 |
| SEP 25 | 12.221 |
| OCT 25 | 12.308 |
| NOV 25 | 12.383 |
| DEC 25 | 12.447 |
| JAN 26 | 12.464 |
| FEB 26 | 12.473 |
| MAR 26 | 12.307 |
| APR 26 | 11.307 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 12.462 |
| JUN 25 | 12.085 |
| JUL 25 | 12.100 |
| AUG 25 | 12.180 |
| SEP 25 | 12.275 |
| OCT 25 | 12.340 |
| NOV 25 | 12.430 |
| DEC 25 | 12.740 |
| JAN 26 | 12.790 |
| FEB 26 | 12.730 |
| MAR 26 | 12.365 |
| APR 26 | 11.490 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-22 | $3.03 | $2.72 | $3.35 |
| 2025-04-23 | $3.04 | $2.73 | $3.36 |
| 2025-04-24 | $3.03 | $2.72 | $3.35 |
| 2025-04-25 | $3.03 | $2.71 | $3.34 |
| 2025-04-26 | $3.05 | $2.73 | $3.36 |
The current market conditions present a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 9.30 BCFD, indicating a slight increase in supply. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.99 and resistance is at 3.44. Traders should be cautious as prices are forecasted to trend up by 0.61%, with a range of 2.72 to 3.35. Volatility may arise from the divergence in weather patterns across regions, particularly the cooling demand dominating in the Midwest and South.
With a neutral market sentiment reflected in the fundamental balance of 9.30 BCFD, producers should consider adjusting production plans to align with the lower demand forecasts indicated by recent headlines. The hedging strategies may be essential in this environment where natural gas prices are at a 5-month low. Monitoring regional weather patterns is crucial, as low heating demand in the Northeast contrasts with higher cooling demand elsewhere.
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as natural gas prices are currently at a 5-month low. The fundamental balance suggests a slight oversupply, which could provide opportunities for favorable procurement. However, the low heating demand expected may lead to uncertainties in supply reliability. It is advisable to evaluate hedging options to mitigate risks associated with future price volatility.
The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with a fundamental balance of 9.30 BCFD. The prevailing bearish sentiment in the news, particularly regarding natural gas prices hitting a 5-month low, indicates that oversupply and lower demand forecasts are key driving factors. Analysts should closely monitor the cooling demand trends across regions and the impact on price stability, as these factors could shift the market outlook significantly.