Total supply decreased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 9.3 BCFD
MA(9): $3.46
MA(20): $3.74
MACD: -0.1884
Signal: -0.1187
Days since crossover: 26
Value: 35.44
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 135,424
Avg (20d): 175,767
Ratio: 0.77
%K: 5.37
%D: 6.79
ADX: 23.44
+DI: 11.08
-DI: 24.64
Value: -94.63
Upper: 4.33
Middle: 3.74
Lower: 3.16
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.3 | 105.8 | 100.3 | 98.63 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.13 |
| Total Supply | 112.3 | 112.4 | 105.6 | 103.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.0 |
| Electric Power Demand | 28.6 | 30.3 | 30.2 | 28.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.1 | 24.7 | 23.0 | 20.93 |
| LNG Exports | 16.8 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 6.9 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 103.0 | 108.8 | 104.1 | 98.03 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 5.77 |
TTF prices increased to 11.901 EUR/MWh (+0.028). JKM prices remained stable to 12.462 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.561 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-20
Front month: MAY 25
As of 2025-04-20
JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2025-04-20
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 11.901 |
| JUN 25 | 11.935 |
| JUL 25 | 12.003 |
| AUG 25 | 12.113 |
| SEP 25 | 12.221 |
| OCT 25 | 12.308 |
| NOV 25 | 12.383 |
| DEC 25 | 12.447 |
| JAN 26 | 12.464 |
| FEB 26 | 12.473 |
| MAR 26 | 12.307 |
| APR 26 | 11.307 |
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 25 | 12.462 |
| JUN 25 | 12.085 |
| JUL 25 | 12.100 |
| AUG 25 | 12.180 |
| SEP 25 | 12.275 |
| OCT 25 | 12.340 |
| NOV 25 | 12.430 |
| DEC 25 | 12.740 |
| JAN 26 | 12.790 |
| FEB 26 | 12.730 |
| MAR 26 | 12.365 |
| APR 26 | 11.490 |
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | $3.24 | $2.93 | $3.55 |
| 2025-04-19 | $3.26 | $2.95 | $3.57 |
| 2025-04-20 | $3.25 | $2.94 | $3.57 |
| 2025-04-21 | $3.26 | $2.95 | $3.57 |
| 2025-04-22 | $3.26 | $2.95 | $3.57 |
Current market conditions are neutral, with a technical score of 0/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support at 2.99 and resistance at 3.44. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.13%, with a range of 2.93 to 3.55, suggesting potential short-term volatility. The low heating demand and low cooling demand may limit price increases, presenting both opportunities and risks.
With a fundamental balance of 9.30 BCFD and an increase of +5.70, producers should evaluate their production planning and consider adjusting output levels. The neutral market sentiment, indicated by a sentiment score of +0.024, suggests that while there is no immediate bullish momentum, the hedging strategies may need to be revisited due to fluctuating demand and geopolitical influences affecting operations.
Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations due to the neutral market sentiment and low heating and cooling demand. The current price range of 2.93 to 3.55 indicates that procurement strategies should be flexible to adapt to market shifts. Additionally, the supply reliability risks stemming from low demand forecasts could affect future purchasing decisions.
The market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with the overall sentiment score at +0.024. The primary driving factors appear to be the fundamental balance and the weather outlook, which indicate low heating and cooling demands. Analysts should monitor the geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding crude oil, as it exhibits stronger sentiment shifts, which could influence broader market dynamics.