Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-08 00:04
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is flirting with the $60 mark, showing bullish behavior over the past week. However, zooming out reveals a downward trend over the past year, with fundamentals remaining neutral—China's SPR imports inflate demand but OPEC+ is holding back due to soft fundamentals. US diesel and mogas stocks are the surprising bright spots. With geopolitical tensions simmering, particularly around Venezuela, a break below $57.35 could drop prices into the 40s. Keep an eye on the Fed's decisions, as they may impact market sentiment.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.75
$0.49
WTI:
$60.08
$0.41
Spread:
$3.67
(Brent premium of $3.67)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-8,600
Weekly Change:
29,554
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$60.2
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $59.11
MA(20): $59.33
Current Price is 60.2, 9 day MA 59.11, 20 day MA 59.33
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1582
Signal: -0.3529
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.77
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.77 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 7,370
Avg (20d): 234,170
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 80.94
%D: 75.28
Stochastic %K: 80.94, %D: 75.28. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.11
+DI: 17.29
-DI: 15.94
ADX: 11.11 (+DI: 17.29, -DI: 15.94). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -19.06
Williams %R: -19.06 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 61.03
Middle: 59.33
Lower: 57.63
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 61.03, Middle: 59.33, Lower: 57.63
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13815.0 | 13814.0 | 13493.0 | 12937.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5981.0 | 6436.0 | 6083.0 | 6936.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3613.0 | 3598.0 | 4663.0 | 4001.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16876.0 | 16443.0 | 16295.0 | 16565.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2368.0 | 2838.0 | 1420.0 | 2935.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 427503.0 | 426929.0 | 428448.0 | 427434.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687647.0 | 1682173.0 | 1632376.0 | 1618186.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214422.0 | 209904.0 | 212241.0 | 219098.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114286.0 | 112227.0 | 114717.0 | 116317.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $63.75, change $+0.49. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $60.08, change $+0.41. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.67 (Brent premium of $3.67). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.75
0.49
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$60.08
0.41
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.67
Brent premium of $3.67
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The global oil market is experiencing a tightening demand-supply balance, with world oil demand projected to reach 105.1 mb/d in 2025. OPEC's crude production is under pressure as demand for DoC crude is revised down slightly, indicating a need for strategic adjustments. The overall economic growth remains stable, supporting a gradual increase in oil consumption, particularly in non-OECD countries.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand growth: 4.8% for 2025
- India's demand growth: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily the OECD with limited growth
- Implications for OPEC: A need to adjust production levels to maintain market stability and prevent oversupply.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecast growth of 4.8% for 2025.
- India's growth story is strong, projected at 6.5% for 2025, indicating increasing energy needs.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable production and demand patterns supporting market stability.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand growth, necessitating careful monitoring of supply adjustments.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential economic slowdowns impacting demand.
- Opportunities lie in the growing markets of Asia, particularly in China and India, which could drive higher oil consumption.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Refining margins, tanker rates, and global economic indicators.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The slight downward revision in demand for DoC crude, now at 42.4 mb/d.
- Biggest risk factor: Economic uncertainties that could dampen demand growth in key regions.
- Opportunity area: Capitalizing on the growth in non-OECD countries, especially India and China.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels in response to changing demand forecasts to maintain market equilibrium.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-10-28
Managed Money
-8,600
Change: +29,554
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
297,846
Change: -11,690
15.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-375,563
Change: -10,971
-19.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,891,657
Change: -105,992
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-28
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,891,657 contracts (-105,992)
Managed Money Net Position: -8,600 contracts (-0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +29,554 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,846 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -375,563 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
29
Last Updated:
2025-12-08 00:04:19
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Crude Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Optimism Barchart
- Crude Oil Rallies on Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Find Support from a Weaker Dollar and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Rises on Russia-Ukraine Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.89
Daily:
-0.1 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.47 (-0.47%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.03 (0.75%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6870.4
Daily:
13.28 (0.19%)
Weekly:
57.77 (0.85%)
VIX
15.41
Daily:
-0.37 (-2.34%)
Weekly:
-1.83 (-10.61%)
GOLD
4237.7
Daily:
24.8 (0.59%)
Weekly:
51.1 (1.22%)
COPPER
5.44
Daily:
0.06 (1.16%)
Weekly:
0.28 (5.49%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.2
Closest Support:
$60.2
0.0% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$61.38
1.96% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
0.236
$58.73
0.382
$60.2
Current Price
0.5
$61.38
Resistance
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$60.08
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-08 00:04:21
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | $60.14 | $58.49 | $61.79 |
| 2025-12-07 | $60.17 | $58.52 | $61.82 |
| 2025-12-08 | $60.09 | $58.44 | $61.74 |
| 2025-12-09 | $60.01 | $58.36 | $61.66 |
| 2025-12-10 | $59.98 | $58.32 | $61.63 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2025-12-06), reaching $60.14.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-06 and 2025-12-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish trend in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $65.20/b, suggests potential volatility in the short term. The support levels are likely around the recent lows, while resistance may be observed near the $66/b mark. The Brent-WTI spread narrowing to $3.88/b indicates a convergence of supply-demand dynamics which could lead to short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on price fluctuations. Additionally, the current bearish positioning of managed money traders, though weakening, should be monitored closely for potential shifts in sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decrease in crude oil production from countries participating in the DoC and the inventory levels showing a slight increase in OECD commercial stocks may impact production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, particularly with the $60.07/b average for NYMEX WTI. The market sentiment remains cautious, and producers may need to adapt their operations to respond to market uncertainties stemming from geopolitical tensions and economic forecasts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude prices averaging around $60.07/b, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, especially in light of the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. Supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical factors and fluctuating inventories, particularly as US crude imports have decreased to 5.6 mb/d. Consumers may want to consider procurement strategies that leverage current price levels while being aware of potential hedging options to manage future cost exposure.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market displays a bearish outlook influenced by declining prices across major benchmarks, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b. Fundamental factors indicate a stable global economic growth forecast at 3.0% for 2025, yet the supply-demand balance shows signs of tightening in the non-OECD regions. Additionally, the managed money positioning suggests a potential shift in market dynamics that could impact future price trajectories. Analysts should keep a close watch on geopolitical developments and refining margins, which are currently showing improvements, as these will be crucial in shaping the market outlook.
Disclaimer: The insights provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.