Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-06 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is currently flirting with the $60 mark, exhibiting a bullish short-term trend over the past week. However, a broader 12-month perspective reveals a downward trajectory, with fundamentals remaining neutral, buoyed by China's strategic SPR imports. OPEC+ has opted for a pause, reflecting soft market conditions. Diesel and gasoline stocks offer a glimmer of hope, yet geopolitical tensions loom large. Watch for potential volatility, especially if key support levels break, potentially sending prices into the 40s. Keep an eye on U.S. actions in Venezuela as a pivotal risk factor.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.26
$0.59
WTI:
$59.67
$0.72
Spread:
$3.59
(Brent premium of $3.59)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-8,600
Weekly Change:
29,554
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$60.08
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.96
MA(20): $59.31
Current Price is 60.08, 9 day MA 58.96, 20 day MA 59.31
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2529
Signal: -0.4016
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.14
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.14 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 264,993
Avg (20d): 246,774
Ratio: 1.07
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 77.81
%D: 64.4
Stochastic %K: 77.81, %D: 64.4. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.65
+DI: 17.58
-DI: 16.2
ADX: 11.65 (+DI: 17.58, -DI: 16.2). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -22.19
Williams %R: -22.19 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 60.98
Middle: 59.31
Lower: 57.64
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 60.98, Middle: 59.31, Lower: 57.64
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13815.0 | 13814.0 | 13493.0 | 12937.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5981.0 | 6436.0 | 6083.0 | 6936.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3613.0 | 3598.0 | 4663.0 | 4001.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16876.0 | 16443.0 | 16295.0 | 16565.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2368.0 | 2838.0 | 1420.0 | 2935.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 427503.0 | 426929.0 | 428448.0 | 427434.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687647.0 | 1682173.0 | 1632376.0 | 1618186.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214422.0 | 209904.0 | 212241.0 | 219098.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114286.0 | 112227.0 | 114717.0 | 116317.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $63.26, change $+0.59. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $59.67, change $+0.72. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.59 (Brent premium of $3.59). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.26
0.59
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$59.67
0.72
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.59
Brent premium of $3.59
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The global oil market is experiencing a delicate balance as demand growth remains steady while supply dynamics shift. In 2025, world oil demand is projected to reach 105.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), with non-OECD countries driving the majority of this growth. OPEC's production decisions will be critical in navigating the evolving landscape of supply and demand.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand growth: 4.8% for 2025
- India's demand growth: 6.5% for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Deficit driven primarily by non-OECD regions, particularly China and India
- Implications for OPEC: Adjustments in production levels may be necessary to address the growing demand from these regions
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecasted growth of 4.8% in 2025
- India's growth story is compelling, projecting a 6.5% increase in oil demand for 2025
- The Americas show resilience with stable demand, supported by strong refining margins
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant growth and fluctuating import dynamics
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook indicates steady demand growth at +1.3 mb/d for 2025 and +1.4 mb/d for 2026
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions
- Opportunities lie in expanding refining capacities in emerging markets
- Key market-moving factors to watch: OPEC production decisions and global economic performance
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: Non-OECD demand growth continues to outpace OECD growth
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains
- Opportunity area: Increased refining capacity in India and China
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider flexible production strategies to adapt to changing demand patterns
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-10-28
Managed Money
-8,600
Change: +29,554
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
297,846
Change: -11,690
15.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-375,563
Change: -10,971
-19.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,891,657
Change: -105,992
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-28
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,891,657 contracts (-105,992)
Managed Money Net Position: -8,600 contracts (-0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +29,554 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,846 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -375,563 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
56
Last Updated:
2025-12-06 00:04:37
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (15 articles)
- Crude Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Optimism Barchart
- Crude Oil Rallies on Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Find Support from a Weaker Dollar and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil prices firm after Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, stalled peace talks Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Rises Amid Russia-Ukraine Peace Uncertainty, Mounting Venezuela Tension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Rise Amid Lingering Geopolitical Tension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Market Concerns Over Russia-Ukraine Progress — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises With Focus on Russia-Ukraine Negotiations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Lower as Investors Focus on Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Possible Easing of Geopolitical Risks Weighs on Crude Prices Barchart
- Oil Futures Fall Amid Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Prices Undercut by Hopes for an End to the Russian-Ukrainian War Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Unlikely to Change Long-Term Outlook for Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.99
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.42 (-0.42%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.03 (0.75%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6870.4
Daily:
13.28 (0.19%)
Weekly:
57.77 (0.85%)
VIX
15.41
Daily:
-0.37 (-2.34%)
Weekly:
-1.83 (-10.61%)
GOLD
4212.9
Daily:
1.1 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-26.4 (-0.62%)
COPPER
5.38
Daily:
0.09 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.16 (3.12%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.08
Closest Support:
$58.73
2.25% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.2
0.2% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
0.236
$58.73
Support
0.382
$60.2
Resistance
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$60.08
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-06 00:04:39
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | $60.14 | $58.49 | $61.79 |
| 2025-12-07 | $60.17 | $58.52 | $61.83 |
| 2025-12-08 | $60.09 | $58.44 | $61.74 |
| 2025-12-09 | $60.01 | $58.36 | $61.66 |
| 2025-12-10 | $59.98 | $58.33 | $61.63 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2025-12-06), reaching $60.14.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-06 and 2025-12-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is underscored by the decline in the OPEC Reference Basket to an average of $65.20/b and the front-month contracts for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI, which have fallen to $63.95/b and $60.07/b respectively. The Brent-WTI spread has tightened to an average of $3.88/b, indicating a convergence in pricing dynamics which may present short-term trading opportunities as the market navigates through volatility. The market structure remains in backwardation, suggesting that immediate supply concerns may support prices in the short term. However, the bearish positioning by managed money traders, with a net position of -8,600 contracts, indicates potential for further downside unless market sentiment shifts. Traders should monitor key Fibonacci levels for resistance, particularly around $64.00/b for Brent and $59.00/b for WTI.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should adjust their production planning in light of the current market conditions, as the crude oil prices have seen a significant decline. With the global oil demand forecast remaining robust at approximately 1.3 mb/d growth in 2025, producers can still find opportunities for strategic production increases, particularly in the non-DoC regions like the US and Brazil, where output is expected to rise. However, the increase in OECD commercial inventories by 6.0 mb indicates a potential oversupply that could pressure prices further. A focus on hedging strategies may be prudent to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, especially given the bearish sentiment reflected in the CFTC positioning data.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices currently averaging around $60.07/b and $63.95/b respectively. The geopolitical tensions and the recent decline in crude imports, particularly from the US, may impact supply reliability. With the OECD crude oil commercial stocks rising, there may be short-term opportunities to secure lower prices; however, the overall market sentiment remains bearish. Consumers should consider hedging options to protect against potential price increases, especially in light of the upcoming demand forecasts which predict a growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market landscape presents a mixed picture. While the bearish sentiment is evident from falling prices and increased inventories, the backwardation in the forward curves suggests underlying strength in physical oil demand. The global oil demand is forecasted to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions, which could provide a buffer against price declines. Analysts should closely monitor the geopolitical factors and inventory levels, as these remain critical in shaping market dynamics. The recent news sentiment score of +