Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-04 23:49
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil prices are hovering around $60, showing a short-term bullish trend over the past week, but a longer look reveals a downward trajectory over the last year. While fundamentals are mixed—with China’s SPR imports inflating demand—OPEC+ has opted for a pause due to weak fundamentals. The U.S. Diesel and Mogas stocks provide a glimmer of hope. Watch for the $57.35 level; a break could trigger a drop into the 40s. Geopolitical tensions add uncertainty, especially regarding Venezuela, which could impact prices, but significant upward movement appears limited.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$62.67
$0.22
WTI:
$58.95
$0.31
Spread:
$3.72
(Brent premium of $3.72)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-38,154
Weekly Change:
19,388
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$59.51
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.72
MA(20): $59.27
Current Price is 59.51, 9 day MA 58.72, 20 day MA 59.27
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3706
Signal: -0.4413
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 50.2
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 50.2 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 8,003
Avg (20d): 234,563
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 62.92
%D: 50.04
Stochastic %K: 62.92, %D: 50.04. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 12.54
+DI: 15.07
-DI: 17.45
ADX: 12.54 (+DI: 15.07, -DI: 17.45). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -37.08
Williams %R: -37.08 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 60.89
Middle: 59.27
Lower: 57.64
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 60.89, Middle: 59.27, Lower: 57.64
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13815.0 | 13814.0 | 13493.0 | 12937.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5981.0 | 6436.0 | 6083.0 | 6936.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3613.0 | 3598.0 | 4663.0 | 4001.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16876.0 | 16443.0 | 16295.0 | 16565.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2368.0 | 2838.0 | 1420.0 | 2935.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 427503.0 | 426929.0 | 428448.0 | 427434.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687647.0 | 1682173.0 | 1632376.0 | 1618186.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214422.0 | 209904.0 | 212241.0 | 219098.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114286.0 | 112227.0 | 114717.0 | 116317.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.67, change $+0.22. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.95, change $+0.31. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.72 (Brent premium of $3.72). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$62.67
0.22
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$58.95
0.31
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.72
Brent premium of $3.72
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by a slight decline in crude prices and stable global demand growth. OPEC's production decisions will be crucial as the demand for crude from participating countries is projected to rise, albeit at a slower pace than previously anticipated. The balance between supply and demand remains delicate, with significant implications for future pricing and production strategies.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand in 2025: 105.1 mb/d
- OECD demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's oil demand forecast: 4.8% growth
- India's oil demand forecast: 6.5% growth
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current supply-demand gap: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily driven by the demand for DoC crude
- Implications for OPEC: A tighter market may necessitate strategic production adjustments to stabilize prices
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains strong, with a forecast growth rate of 4.8% for 2025.
- India's growth story is robust, projected at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026, indicating increasing energy needs.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand and production levels supporting market stability.
- Europe faces challenges, with stagnant growth and reliance on imports impacting overall demand dynamics.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by +1.3 mb/d in 2025 and +1.4 mb/d in 2026.
- Risks: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns could disrupt supply chains.
- Opportunities: Increased demand from emerging markets presents avenues for growth in production and exports.
- Market-moving factors to watch: OPEC's production decisions and global economic indicators.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The downward revision of DoC crude demand by 0.1 mb/d.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes.
- Opportunity area: Expanding exports to India and China as they ramp up demand.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with changing demand forecasts.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-10-21
Managed Money
-38,154
Change: -19,388
-1.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
309,536
Change: +14,091
15.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-364,592
Change: +12,233
-18.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,997,649
Change: -68,941
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-21
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,997,649 contracts (-68,941)
Managed Money Net Position: -38,154 contracts (-1.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -19,388 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 309,536 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -364,592 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
59
Last Updated:
2025-12-04 23:49:00
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (7 articles)
- Higher Indian Sugar Production Weighs on Prices Barchart
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Oil Edges Higher Amid Supply Chain Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Unica Reports Larger Brazilian Sugar Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Decision to Assess Maximum Output Capacity Could Spark Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Climbs 2% on OPEC+ Steady Output Plan, Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (12 articles)
- Geopolitical Tensions Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Find Support from a Weaker Dollar and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil prices firm after Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, stalled peace talks Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Possible Easing of Geopolitical Risks Weighs on Crude Prices Barchart
- Crude Prices Undercut by Hopes for an End to the Russian-Ukrainian War Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Unlikely to Change Long-Term Outlook for Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Crude Prices Push Higher on Dollar Weakness and Reduced Russian Oil Exports Barchart
- Crude Prices Rally on Dollar Weakness and Reduced Russian Oil Exports Barchart
- Geopolitical Turmoil Supports Crude Oil — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.0
Daily:
0.15 (0.15%)
Weekly:
-0.46 (-0.46%)
US_10Y
4.11
Daily:
0.05 (1.26%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.27%)
SP500
6857.12
Daily:
7.4 (0.11%)
Weekly:
8.03 (0.12%)
VIX
15.78
Daily:
-0.3 (-1.87%)
Weekly:
-0.57 (-3.49%)
GOLD
4243.5
Daily:
44.2 (1.05%)
Weekly:
25.2 (0.6%)
COPPER
5.41
Daily:
0.11 (1.98%)
Weekly:
0.23 (4.39%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.51
Closest Support:
$58.73
1.31% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.2
1.16% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
0.236
$58.73
Support
0.382
$60.2
Resistance
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.67
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-04 23:49:03
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.11%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | $59.6 | $57.96 | $61.25 |
| 2025-12-06 | $59.66 | $58.02 | $61.3 |
| 2025-12-07 | $59.67 | $58.03 | $61.32 |
| 2025-12-08 | $59.59 | $57.95 | $61.23 |
| 2025-12-09 | $59.55 | $57.91 | $61.2 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2025-12-05), reaching $59.60.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-05 and 2025-12-09.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $65.20/b for the OPEC Reference Basket and $60.07/b for NYMEX WTI, suggests a bearish sentiment among traders. The Brent-WTI spread of $3.88/b indicates potential price divergence; traders should monitor this closely for signs of strength or weakness in the U.S. supply dynamics.
The market's current backwardation reflects healthy physical oil market fundamentals, although the bearish positioning from hedge funds could lead to increased volatility. Traders should be cautious of potential short-term risks as market sentiment and positioning may indicate a further price drop.
Look for Fibonacci levels around $58.95/b for potential support, while $63.95/b could act as a resistance level in the near term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The recent decrease in crude oil prices necessitates a reassessment of hedging strategies for producers. With $60.07/b for WTI, producers should evaluate their production costs and consider locking in prices to mitigate potential losses.
The increase in OECD commercial inventories, which rose by 6.0 mb, indicates a potential oversupply situation that could further pressure prices. Producers should closely monitor inventory levels and adjust production plans accordingly to avoid exacerbating the supply glut.
Additionally, the balance of supply and demand is shifting, with demand for DoC crude revised down to 42.4 mb/d. This could impact market dynamics and pricing, requiring producers to remain agile in their operations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. With WTI at $60.07/b and Brent at $63.95/b, procurement strategies should consider both current prices and forecasts to optimize costs.
Geopolitical tensions and declining crude imports from regions like Russia could lead to supply reliability risks. The recent uptick in U.S. crude exports to 4.2 mb/d may provide some buffer against these risks, but consumers should remain vigilant.
Additionally, with refining margins improving, particularly for middle distillates, refineries may experience opportunities to enhance profitability in the near term, which could influence product pricing.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by declining prices across major benchmarks. The fundamental balance indicates a slight oversupply, particularly with OECD commercial inventories rising.
The backwardation in the market structure suggests underlying strength in physical oil demand, despite bearish positioning from managed money. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical risks and their potential impact on supply chains.
Overall, while the market sentiment leans bearish, external factors such as geopolitical tensions and