Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-04 16:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is flirting with the $60 mark, reflecting a short-term bullish trend over the past week, though a year-long downward trajectory looms large. Fundamentals remain mixed; China's ongoing SPR imports inflate sentiment despite soft underlying conditions, prompting OPEC+ to hit the pause button for now. Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bright spots, but geopolitical tensions and a potential U.S. strike on Venezuela may cap prices. Watch for a breach of $57.35, which could plunge us into the 40s—hold onto your hats!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-3/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$62.67
$0.22
WTI:
$58.95
$0.31
Spread:
$3.72
(Brent premium of $3.72)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-38,154
Weekly Change:
19,388
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-3
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$59.76
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $59.41
MA(20): $59.84
Current Price is 59.76, 9 day MA 59.41, 20 day MA 59.84
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3896
Signal: -0.3777
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 49.38
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 49.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 239,497
Avg (20d): 243,955
Ratio: 0.98
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 61.03
%D: 38.63
Stochastic %K: 61.03, %D: 38.63. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 13.52
+DI: 18.89
-DI: 20.62
ADX: 13.52 (+DI: 18.89, -DI: 20.62). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -38.97
Williams %R: -38.97 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 61.56
Middle: 59.84
Lower: 58.12
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.56, Middle: 59.84, Lower: 58.12
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13815.0 | 13814.0 | 13493.0 | 12937.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5981.0 | 6436.0 | 6083.0 | 6936.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3613.0 | 3598.0 | 4663.0 | 4001.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16876.0 | 16443.0 | 16295.0 | 16565.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2368.0 | 2838.0 | 1420.0 | 2935.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 427503.0 | 426929.0 | 428448.0 | 427434.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687647.0 | 1682173.0 | 1632376.0 | 1618186.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214422.0 | 209904.0 | 212241.0 | 219098.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114286.0 | 112227.0 | 114717.0 | 116317.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.67, change $+0.22. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.95, change $+0.31. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.72 (Brent premium of $3.72). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$62.67
0.22
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$58.95
0.31
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.72
Brent premium of $3.72
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by a modest demand growth forecast and a tightening supply situation. Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with notable contributions from non-OECD countries. Meanwhile, the supply from non-DoC producers is expected to increase, but OPEC's production decisions will be crucial in balancing this dynamic environment.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025, +1.4% from 2024
- OECD demand: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2025
- Non-OECD demand: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2025
- China's demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d for DoC crude in 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily non-OECD countries
- Implications for OPEC: A need for strategic production adjustments to maintain market stability
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory remains robust, with a forecasted growth of 4.8% in 2025, indicating strong consumption patterns.
- India's growth story is compelling, with a projected increase of 6.5% in oil demand, positioning it as a key player in the global market.
- The Americas show resilience, with stable demand growth expected, particularly from the US.
- Europe faces challenges, as demand growth remains stagnant amidst economic uncertainties.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, maintaining a steady upward trajectory.
- Risks and opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact demand and supply dynamics.
- Market-moving factors to watch: Changes in OPEC production levels and shifts in non-OECD demand patterns.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The significant growth forecast for India's oil demand at 6.5% for 2025.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and affect market stability.
- Opportunity area: Increased investment in refining capacity in emerging markets like India and China.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to better align with the evolving demand landscape.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-10-21
Managed Money
-38,154
Change: -19,388
-1.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
309,536
Change: +14,091
15.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-364,592
Change: +12,233
-18.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,997,649
Change: -68,941
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-21
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,997,649 contracts (-68,941)
Managed Money Net Position: -38,154 contracts (-1.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -19,388 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 309,536 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -364,592 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
60
Last Updated:
2025-12-04 16:47:31
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (8 articles)
- Higher Indian Sugar Production Weighs on Prices Barchart
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Unica Reports Larger Brazilian Sugar Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Decision to Assess Maximum Output Capacity Could Spark Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Climbs 2% on OPEC+ Steady Output Plan, Supply Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises After OPEC+ Keeps Output Unchanged Trading Economics
- Oil rises after OPEC+ meeting maintains current output Reuters
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (11 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Find Support from a Weaker Dollar and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil prices firm after Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, stalled peace talks Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Possible Easing of Geopolitical Risks Weighs on Crude Prices Barchart
- Crude Prices Undercut by Hopes for an End to the Russian-Ukrainian War Barchart
- Oil rises on geopolitical risks to supply Reuters
- Crude Prices Push Higher on Dollar Weakness and Reduced Russian Oil Exports Barchart
- Crude Prices Rally on Dollar Weakness and Reduced Russian Oil Exports Barchart
- Geopolitical Turmoil Supports Crude Oil — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s Output Decision Likely Shaped By Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Higher; Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.06
Daily:
0.21 (0.22%)
Weekly:
-0.4 (-0.4%)
US_10Y
4.11
Daily:
0.05 (1.26%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.27%)
SP500
6857.12
Daily:
7.4 (0.11%)
Weekly:
8.03 (0.12%)
VIX
15.78
Daily:
-0.3 (-1.87%)
Weekly:
-0.57 (-3.49%)
GOLD
4239.0
Daily:
147.1 (3.59%)
Weekly:
161.3 (3.96%)
COPPER
5.36
Daily:
0.4 (8.01%)
Weekly:
0.35 (7.02%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$59.76
Closest Support:
$58.73
1.72% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.2
0.74% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
0.236
$58.73
Support
0.382
$60.2
Resistance
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.84
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-04 16:47:34
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | $58.85 | $56.85 | $60.85 |
| 2025-11-26 | $58.99 | $56.99 | $60.99 |
| 2025-11-27 | $59.11 | $57.11 | $61.11 |
| 2025-11-28 | $59.11 | $57.11 | $61.11 |
| 2025-11-29 | $59.07 | $57.07 | $61.07 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.85.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market is showing signs of bearish sentiment, as evidenced by the $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value. The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread indicates a slight narrowing, suggesting potential volatility in the short term. Traders should be cautious of the Fibonacci support levels around $60 for WTI and $63 for Brent. The bearish positioning of managed money traders, with a net position of -38,154 contracts, signals a potential for further downward pressure. Look for opportunities to capitalize on short-term fluctuations while managing risk.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market landscape indicates a need for strategic production planning. The forecasted growth in non-DoC liquids production, driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, may impact your market share. With commercial inventories rising by 6.0 mb, consider adjusting your hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. The balance of supply and demand suggests a tightening market in 2026, which could present future opportunities if managed correctly.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
As crude prices fluctuate, expect input cost fluctuations to impact procurement strategies. The recent decline in crude imports to the US, averaging 5.6 mb/d, alongside rising exports, may affect supply reliability. Monitor geopolitical developments closely, as they pose risks to supply chains. Given the bearish market sentiment, consider locking in prices now to hedge against potential increases in input costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices across major benchmarks. Key factors include a balance of supply and demand that favors an increase in non-DoC production and a slight decrease in DoC crude demand. The neutral economic growth outlook globally suggests stable demand, but geopolitical risks remain a significant concern. Analysts should focus on the implications of CFTC positioning and ongoing news sentiment, which indicates potential shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This response is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.