Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-30 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/30/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step. If this goes down below 57.35, we could head down to the 40s - I expect a battleground at this level for the next few weeks. Monday trading was a recovery from Fridays sell off - as bulls have fended off 57.35 for now…I am still watching that level.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-30 23:46:53 Length: 538 chars
Crude oil finds itself in a precarious limbo, with OPEC+ announcing a December increase of 137K BOPD while signaling a Q1 quota pause. Currently, OPEC+ is underperforming its quotas, especially Nigeria, which is lagging by 260K BOPD. This under-preparedness for potential demand spikes leaves non-OPEC regions to fill the gap, but growth here is price-sensitive. The $60 mark is crucial, with a potential retest of $57.35 on the horizon. A drop below this could lead to a descent into the 40s—definitely a battleground in the weeks ahead.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.2 $0.07
WTI: $58.55 $0.1
Spread: $4.65 (Brent premium of $4.65)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -18,766
Weekly Change: 1,285

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $59.61
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.39

MA(20): $59.83

Current Price is 59.61, 9 day MA 59.39, 20 day MA 59.83

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.4015

Signal: -0.3801

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.67

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.67 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 21,776

Avg (20d): 233,069

Ratio: 0.09

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 57.18

%D: 37.35

Stochastic %K: 57.18, %D: 37.35. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.86

+DI: 17.49

-DI: 21.0

ADX: 13.86 (+DI: 17.49, -DI: 21.0). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -42.82

Williams %R: -42.82 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.55

Middle: 59.83

Lower: 58.11

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.55, Middle: 59.83, Lower: 58.11

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13814.0 13834.0 13201.0 12931.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6436.0 5950.0 7684.0 5984.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3598.0 4158.0 4378.0 4788.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16443.0 16232.0 16228.0 16318.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2838.0 1792.0 3306.0 1195.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426929.0 424155.0 430292.0 432398.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1682173.0 1680113.0 1633001.0 1618476.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 209904.0 207391.0 208927.0 214731.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112227.0 111080.0 114301.0 112714.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.2, change $+0.07. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.55, change $-0.1. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.65 (Brent premium of $4.65). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.2
0.07
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.55
0.1
(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.65
Brent premium of $4.65

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The OPEC market is currently experiencing a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down from the previous month. Despite this, global oil demand growth remains stable, projected to increase by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, indicating a balanced market outlook amidst fluctuating prices.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Value (mb/d)
World Production (Total) 105.1369
World Demand (Total) 105.1369
Non-DoC Production 51.4661
DoC Production 43.02

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates that global oil demand is aligning closely with production levels, resulting in a balanced market. The demand for DoC crude is projected at 42.4 mb/d for 2025, slightly lower than previous estimates, while total world demand remains stable at 105.1369 mb/d, suggesting no significant surplus or deficit in the near term.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to world oil production include the Americas at 25.34 mb/d, Europe at 13.51 mb/d, and the Middle East at 8.99 mb/d. The production from countries participating in the DoC has decreased slightly, averaging 43.02 mb/d, reflecting ongoing adjustments in response to market conditions.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving most of this growth. The OECD demand is expected to increase marginally, indicating a stable but slow growth trajectory in mature markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is estimated at 51.4661 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply, while DoC production stands at 43.02 mb/d. This highlights the increasing role of non-DoC producers in meeting global demand, especially as they are projected to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2025.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position reflects a cautious approach, with production adjustments aimed at stabilizing prices amidst declining benchmarks. The organization is likely to continue monitoring market dynamics closely, balancing production levels to support price recovery while accommodating global demand growth.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, market developments are expected to be influenced by ongoing geopolitical factors, economic growth in emerging markets, and the pace of recovery in global oil demand. The stability in demand forecasts suggests a cautious optimism for OPEC's ability to maintain price stability in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices and production levels.
  • Focus on the growth potential in non-OECD markets, particularly China and India.
  • Consider strategic production adjustments to respond to market fluctuations and maintain price stability.
  • Evaluate the implications of declining DoC production on OPEC's overall market influence.
  • Stay informed on refining margins and product demand trends to optimize market positioning.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-10-14

Managed Money

-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,066,590
Change: 30,516

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-14

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,066,590 contracts (+30,516)

Managed Money Net Position: -18,766 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -1,285 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 295,445 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -376,825 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 24
Last Updated: 2025-11-30 23:49:40

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.4
Daily: -0.06 (-0.06%)
Weekly: -0.74 (-0.74%)

US_10Y

4.02
Daily: 0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.13%)

SP500

6849.09
Daily: 36.48 (0.54%)
Weekly: 246.1 (3.73%)

VIX

16.35
Daily: -0.84 (-4.89%)
Weekly: -7.08 (-30.22%)

GOLD

4275.7
Daily: 183.8 (4.49%)
Weekly: 198.0 (4.86%)

COPPER

5.33
Daily: 0.36 (7.34%)
Weekly: 0.32 (6.35%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $59.61
Closest Support: $58.73 1.48% below current price
Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.99% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73 Support
0.382 $60.2 Resistance
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.84
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-30 23:49:42
Next Trading Day: UP 0.01%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-25 $58.85 $56.85 $60.85
2025-11-26 $58.97 $56.97 $60.97
2025-11-27 $59.08 $57.08 $61.09
2025-11-28 $59.08 $57.08 $61.09
2025-11-29 $59.04 $57.04 $61.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.85.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The data indicates a bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, as evidenced by the $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket and a $3.63 decline in ICE Brent prices. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.88, reflecting potential volatility due to changing supply/demand dynamics. Traders should monitor for possible resistance levels around recent highs, while considering Fibonacci retracement levels for short-term trading strategies. The bearish positioning of managed money traders suggests potential for further downward pressure, making it critical to assess market sentiment shifts closely.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The recent decline in crude prices presents challenges for production planning. With a supply increase from non-DoC countries and a 73 tb/d drop in production from OPEC nations, producers must evaluate their hedging strategies to mitigate risks from volatile price movements. The increase in OECD commercial inventories by 6.0 mb indicates a potential oversupply, which could further pressure prices. Producers should also consider the bearish market sentiment as a signal to adjust production levels accordingly and remain agile in response to inventory changes.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, as the current bearish sentiment could lead to lower prices in the short term. However, geopolitical risks and fluctuating inventories could impact supply reliability. The recent decline in US crude imports to 5.6 mb/d and the rise in exports to 4.2 mb/d may create opportunities for procurement at favorable prices. It is advisable to monitor market conditions closely and consider hedging options to protect against sudden price increases or supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current crude oil market reflects a complex interplay of factors driving bearish sentiment. Key drivers include a significant drop in OPEC prices, stable global economic growth forecasts, and an increase in commercial inventories. The balance of supply and demand suggests potential oversupply risks, especially with rising production from non-DoC countries. Analysts should focus on the implications of these trends for price forecasts and consider the potential for shifts in market sentiment as geopolitical developments unfold and economic indicators evolve.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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