Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-27 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/27/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step. If this goes down below 57.35, we could head down to the 40s - I expect a battleground at this level for the next few weeks. Monday trading was a recovery from Fridays sell off - as bulls have fended off 57.35 for now…I am still watching that level.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-27 23:46:50 Length: 506 chars
Crude oil has been in a state of uncertainty recently, influenced by OPEC+ news of a December production increase of 137 KBOPD, yet a pause in quota rises for Q1. Notably, OPEC+ is struggling to meet its quotas, particularly Nigeria, falling short by 260,000 bopd. With $60 serving as a crucial battleground, a drop below $57.35 could spell further declines. Current sentiment is cautious as traders eye geopolitical developments and market fundamentals, with potential for volatility ahead. Watch closely!

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.13 $0.65
WTI: $58.65 $0.7
Spread: $4.48 (Brent premium of $4.48)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -18,766
Weekly Change: 1,285

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $59.08
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.33

MA(20): $59.8

Current Price is 59.08, 9 day MA 59.33, 20 day MA 59.8

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.4438

Signal: -0.3886

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.02

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.02 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 63,813

Avg (20d): 235,170

Ratio: 0.27

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 43.59

%D: 32.82

Stochastic %K: 43.59, %D: 32.82. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.32

+DI: 15.26

-DI: 20.91

ADX: 14.32 (+DI: 15.26, -DI: 20.91). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -56.41

Williams %R: -56.41 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.56

Middle: 59.8

Lower: 58.05

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.56, Middle: 59.8, Lower: 58.05

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13814.0 13834.0 13201.0 12931.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6436.0 5950.0 7684.0 5984.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3598.0 4158.0 4378.0 4788.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16443.0 16232.0 16228.0 16318.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2838.0 1792.0 3306.0 1195.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426929.0 424155.0 430292.0 432398.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1682173.0 1680113.0 1633001.0 1618476.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 209904.0 207391.0 208927.0 214731.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112227.0 111080.0 114301.0 112714.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.13, change $+0.65. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.65, change $+0.7. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.48 (Brent premium of $4.48). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.13
0.65
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.65
0.7
(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.48
Brent premium of $4.48

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down from the previous month. Despite this price drop, the global oil demand growth forecast remains stable, with expectations of a continued increase in demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production
  • US: 22.07
  • Canada: 6.06
  • Chile: 0.01
  • OECD Americas: 28.14
  • Norway: 2.02
  • UK: 0.72
  • Denmark: 0.07
  • Other OECD Europe: 0.76
  • Australia: 0.35
  • China: 4.61
  • India: 0.82
  • Indonesia: 0.83
  • Thailand: 0.39
  • Brazil: 4.39
  • Argentina: 0.95
  • Total Non-OECD Non-DoC: 19.30
DoC Production 43.02 (as per latest data)

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The analysis indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario, with total world production at approximately 105.14 mb/d and total world demand matching this figure. However, the demand for DoC crude has been revised down slightly, suggesting a potential oversupply situation that could affect pricing strategies moving forward.

Production Landscape:

Key producers such as the US, Canada, and Brazil are driving the growth in Non-DoC production, while OPEC's DoC production has seen a slight decline. The Americas lead in production, contributing significantly to global supply, while the Middle East remains a crucial player despite recent production cuts.

Demand Patterns:

Demand is primarily driven by non-OECD countries, with China and India showing strong consumption patterns. The OECD regions are experiencing slower growth, indicating a shift in demand dynamics towards emerging markets, which may pose challenges for traditional producers.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected to grow significantly, particularly from the US and Brazil, while DoC production is experiencing slight declines. This divergence highlights the increasing importance of Non-DoC producers in the global oil market, potentially impacting OPEC's influence over pricing and supply strategies.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears cautious, with a focus on stabilizing prices amid fluctuating demand forecasts. The organization may need to adjust its production strategies to align with the growing influence of Non-DoC producers and the shifting demand landscape.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

In the coming months, market developments may be influenced by the ongoing adjustments in production levels from both OPEC and Non-DoC countries. The stability of oil prices will largely depend on how effectively OPEC can manage its output in response to changing demand patterns, particularly in emerging markets.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production growth closely, as it may impact OPEC's market share.
  • Adjust production strategies to respond to the evolving demand landscape, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Consider potential collaborations or agreements with Non-DoC producers to stabilize prices.
  • Stay vigilant regarding geopolitical developments that could affect supply chains and pricing.
  • Enhance market intelligence capabilities to better anticipate shifts in consumer demand.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-10-14

Managed Money

-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,066,590
Change: 30,516

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-14

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,066,590 contracts (+30,516)

Managed Money Net Position: -18,766 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -1,285 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 295,445 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -376,825 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 57
Last Updated: 2025-11-27 23:50:10

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (8 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.59
Daily: -0.01 (-0.01%)
Weekly: -0.59 (-0.59%)

US_10Y

4.0
Daily: -0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.63%)

SP500

6812.61
Daily: 46.73 (0.69%)
Weekly: 273.85 (4.19%)

VIX

17.21
Daily: 0.02 (0.12%)
Weekly: -6.22 (-26.55%)

GOLD

4187.4
Daily: 95.5 (2.33%)
Weekly: 109.7 (2.69%)

COPPER

5.05
Daily: 0.09 (1.87%)
Weekly: 0.05 (0.94%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $59.08
Closest Support: $58.73 0.59% below current price
Closest Resistance: $60.2 1.9% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73 Support
0.382 $60.2 Resistance
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.84
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-27 23:50:12
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.0%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-25 $58.84 $56.84 $60.84
2025-11-26 $58.96 $56.96 $60.97
2025-11-27 $59.08 $57.08 $61.08
2025-11-28 $59.09 $57.09 $61.09
2025-11-29 $59.04 $57.04 $61.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.84.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, indicated by a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution for traders. The $63.95 average for ICE Brent and $60.07 for NYMEX WTI reflect downward pressure. Traders should be mindful of the support levels around the current price points and consider Fibonacci retracement levels for potential entry points. The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread indicates a neutral market sentiment, but volatility may arise from geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations. Short-term opportunities may exist if prices stabilize or reverse, particularly if managed money positioning shifts from a bearish stance.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in crude prices to an average of $65.20 presents challenges for production planning. With global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, producers may need to adjust output levels to align with expected demand. The increase in OECD commercial crude inventories to 2,845 mb signals a potential oversupply, which could further pressure prices. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and manage operational costs effectively.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices averaging $60.07 for NYMEX WTI, consumers should anticipate potential fluctuations in input costs. The reliability of supply may be affected by geopolitical factors and the recent decline in US crude imports to 5.6 mb/d. Additionally, the upward pressure on refining margins may provide opportunities for procurement strategies that capitalize on current market dynamics. Monitoring product availability and geopolitical developments will be crucial for effective planning and cost management.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bearish outlook driven by declining prices and negative sentiment. The OPEC Reference Basket's drop to $65.20 and the bearish positioning of managed money traders highlight fundamental weaknesses. Despite stable global economic growth forecasts, the balance of supply and demand remains precarious, with rising inventories and subdued demand growth. Analysts should focus on macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical tensions that could shift market dynamics, particularly as uncertainties loom over production levels and global demand forecasts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved