Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-25 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/25/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step. If this goes down below 57.35, we could head down to the 40s - I expect a battleground at this level for the next few weeks. Monday trading was a recovery from Fridays sell off - as bulls have fended off 57.35 for now…I am still watching that level.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-25 23:46:45 Length: 536 chars
Crude Oil finds itself in a precarious limbo, grappling with mixed signals as OPEC+ announces a December quota increase of 137 KBOPD, with a pause anticipated in Q1. Despite this, compliance remains shaky, particularly from Nigeria, which is underproducing by 260,000 bopd. As prices hover around $60, traders eye the critical support level of $57.35. Recent optimism over potential resolutions to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has added pressure, pushing crude to near five-week lows. Watch for volatility as we navigate these waters!

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.37 $0.81
WTI: $58.84 $0.78
Spread: $4.53 (Brent premium of $4.53)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -18,766
Weekly Change: 1,285

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.18
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.23

MA(20): $59.76

Current Price is 58.18, 9 day MA 59.23, 20 day MA 59.76

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.5156

Signal: -0.4029

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 41.96

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 41.96 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,681

Avg (20d): 232,314

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 20.51

%D: 25.13

Stochastic %K: 20.51, %D: 25.13. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.44

+DI: 14.76

-DI: 20.92

ADX: 14.44 (+DI: 14.76, -DI: 20.92). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -79.49

Williams %R: -79.49 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.63

Middle: 59.76

Lower: 57.89

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.63, Middle: 59.76, Lower: 57.89

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13834.0 13862.0 13400.0 12833.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5950.0 5222.0 6509.0 7092.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4158.0 2816.0 3440.0 4468.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16232.0 15973.0 16509.0 16047.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1792.0 2406.0 3069.0 2623.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 424155.0 427581.0 429747.0 436670.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1680113.0 1682295.0 1628553.0 1621003.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 207391.0 205064.0 206873.0 212115.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 111080.0 110909.0 114415.0 109654.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.37, change $+0.81. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.84, change $+0.78. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.53 (Brent premium of $4.53). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.37
0.81
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.84
0.78
(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.53
Brent premium of $4.53

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down from the previous month. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to increase, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape.

Key Market Metrics:

Category 2025 (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
World Demand
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production
  • US Non-DoC Production: 22.07
  • Canada Non-DoC Production: 6.06
  • Chile Non-DoC Production: 0.01
  • OECD Americas Non-DoC Production: 28.14
  • Norway Non-DoC Production: 2.02
  • UK Non-DoC Production: 0.72
  • Denmark Non-DoC Production: 0.07
  • Other OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 0.76
  • OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 3.58
  • Australia Non-DoC Production: 0.35
  • China Non-DoC Production: 4.61
  • India Non-DoC Production: 0.82
  • Indonesia Non-DoC Production: 0.83
  • Thailand Non-DoC Production: 0.39
  • Vietnam Non-DoC Production: 0.18
  • Latin America Non-DoC Production: 7.53
  • Middle East Non-DoC Production: 2.01
  • Africa Non-DoC Production: 2.28
  • Total Non-OECD Non-DoC Production: 19.30
DoC Production
  • DoC NGLs: 8.60
  • DoC Crude: 43.02 (decreased by 0.073 mb/d in October)

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The analysis indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario with total world demand at 105.14 mb/d and total world production at approximately 104.63 mb/d (sum of DoC and Non-DoC production). This results in a slight deficit, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices if the trend continues.

Production Landscape:

Major producers such as the US, Canada, and Brazil are expected to drive non-DoC production growth, while OPEC's DoC production has seen a slight decrease. The Americas remain the largest production region, contributing significantly to global supply.

Demand Patterns:

Demand growth is primarily driven by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, with total demand in these regions projected to increase by 1.2 mb/d. The OECD regions show stagnant growth, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2025, while DoC production is expected to remain stable. This highlights the increasing importance of non-DoC countries in the global oil supply landscape, potentially challenging OPEC's influence.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears cautious, with a focus on maintaining production levels amidst fluctuating prices and a growing non-DoC supply. Future policy directions may include adjusting production quotas to stabilize prices and protect market share.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, market developments may be influenced by continued growth in non-OECD demand and potential geopolitical factors affecting supply. OPEC may need to adapt its strategies to counterbalance the increasing production from non-DoC countries.

Key Insights

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-10-14

Managed Money

-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,066,590
Change: 30,516

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-14

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,066,590 contracts (+30,516)

Managed Money Net Position: -18,766 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -1,285 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 295,445 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -376,825 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 34
Last Updated: 2025-11-25 23:50:02

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.68
Daily: -0.46 (-0.46%)
Weekly: -0.55 (-0.55%)

US_10Y

4.0
Daily: -0.04 (-0.89%)
Weekly: -0.13 (-3.17%)

SP500

6765.88
Daily: 60.76 (0.91%)
Weekly: 123.72 (1.86%)

VIX

18.56
Daily: -1.96 (-9.55%)
Weekly: -5.1 (-21.56%)

GOLD

4196.0
Daily: 104.1 (2.54%)
Weekly: 118.3 (2.9%)

COPPER

5.13
Daily: 0.17 (3.4%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.45%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.18
Closest Support: $56.35 3.15% below current price
Closest Resistance: $58.73 0.95% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support
0.236 $58.73 Resistance
0.382 $60.2
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.84
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-25 23:50:04
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.01%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-25 $58.84 $56.84 $60.84
2025-11-26 $58.96 $56.96 $60.97
2025-11-27 $59.08 $57.08 $61.08
2025-11-28 $59.09 $57.09 $61.09
2025-11-29 $59.05 $57.05 $61.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.84.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market conditions suggest a bearish sentiment, with the $63.95 for Brent and $60.07 for WTI reflecting downward pressure. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $4.53, indicating potential opportunities for arbitrage, but also highlighting the divergence in supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets. Traders should be cautious of volatility, particularly as hedge funds maintain a bearish stance, which could lead to further price declines.

Support levels could emerge around the recent lows, but with the overall market structure weakening, traders should be ready to adapt strategies based on short-term fluctuations. Monitor the CFTC positioning data for managed money, as their net position of -18,766 contracts suggests a potential for price reversals if sentiment shifts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight decrease in demand for DoC crude to 42.4 mb/d, which may impact production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their output strategies in response to the bearish market sentiment and the recent drop in crude prices.

With OECD commercial inventories rising to 2,845 mb, and 1,331 mb of crude oil stocks, it is critical for producers to reassess their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations. The improved refining margins in specific regions also present opportunities for optimizing production and maximizing profitability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude prices remain under pressure, with WTI at $58.84 and Brent at $63.37. The supply reliability risks posed by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories necessitate strategic procurement planning.

Additionally, the recent increase in crude exports from the U.S. to 4.2 mb/d may provide opportunities for securing favorable pricing, but consumers should remain vigilant regarding the bearish sentiment affecting overall market conditions. Consider leveraging hedging options to offset potential cost increases.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, primarily driven by increased supply expectations and weak demand indicators. With global oil demand growth remaining at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, and a slight revision in DoC crude demand, analysts should focus on the implications of these trends for future pricing.

The fundamental balance remains fragile, as evidenced by rising inventories and bearish positioning among managed money traders. The strategic outlook suggests a cautious approach, monitoring geopolitical developments and refining margins, which could shift market dynamics in the near term.

Disclaimer: The insights provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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