Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-24 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/24/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step. If this goes down below 57.35, we could head down to the 40s - I expect a battleground at this level for the next few weeks. Monday trading was a recovery from Fridays sell off - as bulls have fended off 57.35 for now…I am still watching that level.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-24 23:46:44 Length: 562 chars
Crude oil has been in a holding pattern, with OPEC+ signaling a December output increase while facing challenges in meeting existing quotas, especially from Nigeria. Despite a recent uptick, concerns linger around global demand recovery and the structural limitations of OPEC+. Currently, the market is battling around $60, with critical support at $57.35. Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine, have added volatility, but any resolution could shift sentiment. Watch for developments around these key levels as we navigate the uncertainty.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.56 $0.82
WTI: $58.06 $0.94
Spread: $4.5 (Brent premium of $4.50)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -17,481
Weekly Change: 31,534

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.57
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.24

MA(20): $59.84

Current Price is 58.57, 9 day MA 59.24, 20 day MA 59.84

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.4722

Signal: -0.3791

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.31

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.31 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,484

Avg (20d): 230,482

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 30.51

%D: 26.04

Stochastic %K: 30.51, %D: 26.04. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.32

+DI: 15.46

-DI: 22.55

ADX: 14.32 (+DI: 15.46, -DI: 22.55). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -69.49

Williams %R: -69.49 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.61

Middle: 59.84

Lower: 58.08

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.61, Middle: 59.84, Lower: 58.08

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13834.0 13862.0 13400.0 12833.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5950.0 5222.0 6509.0 7092.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4158.0 2816.0 3440.0 4468.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16232.0 15973.0 16509.0 16047.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1792.0 2406.0 3069.0 2623.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 424155.0 427581.0 429747.0 436670.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1680113.0 1682295.0 1628553.0 1621003.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 207391.0 205064.0 206873.0 212115.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 111080.0 110909.0 114415.0 109654.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $62.56, change $-0.82. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.06, change $-0.94. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.5 (Brent premium of $4.50). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.56
0.82
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.06
0.94
(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.5
Brent premium of $4.50

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

As of October 2023, the OPEC Reference Basket price has decreased significantly, reflecting a decline in crude oil prices across major benchmarks. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, yet production from OPEC countries has seen a slight decrease, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the market.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.534 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 N/A
DoC Production 43.02 N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current data indicates a slight surplus in global oil demand over production, with total world demand at approximately 105.135 mb/d compared to total production at 104.534 mb/d. This surplus may exert upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, particularly as demand is expected to grow in both OECD and non-OECD regions.

Production Landscape:

Production by major regions shows that the Americas lead with 25.186 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.509 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.014 mb/d. Notably, OPEC's DoC production has decreased by 73 tb/d, averaging 43.02 mb/d, which may impact OPEC's market share and pricing strategies moving forward.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions expected from the non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. The OECD region's demand growth remains modest at 0.1 mb/d, highlighting a divergence in growth trajectories between developed and developing economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.02 mb/d. This indicates that countries outside the OPEC agreement are increasingly contributing to global supply, which may challenge OPEC's pricing power and market influence.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears cautious, with a focus on stabilizing prices amidst declining production levels. The organization may consider adjusting output strategies to align with the evolving demand landscape and maintain its influence in the global oil market.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, market participants should anticipate continued fluctuations in oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, production adjustments from OPEC, and varying demand growth rates across regions. Monitoring these indicators will be crucial for strategic planning in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the balance between supply and demand closely, as any shifts could impact pricing significantly.
  • Consider the implications of rising Non-DoC production on OPEC's market share and pricing strategies.
  • Stay informed about economic growth forecasts in key regions, particularly in emerging markets like India and China.
  • Evaluate potential adjustments in OPEC's production levels to respond to changing market dynamics.
  • Prepare for volatility in crude oil prices as geopolitical and economic factors continue to evolve.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)
Report Date: 2025-10-07

Managed Money

-17,481
Change: -31,534
-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

294,284
Change: +20,623
14.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-392,340
Change: +14,417
-19.3% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,074
Change: 29,716

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-07

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,074 contracts (+29,716)

Managed Money Net Position: -17,481 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -31,534 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 294,284 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -392,340 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 32
Last Updated: 2025-11-24 23:49:50

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.22
Daily: 0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly: 0.67 (0.68%)

US_10Y

4.04
Daily: -0.03 (-0.62%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-2.06%)

SP500

6705.12
Daily: 102.13 (1.55%)
Weekly: 87.8 (1.33%)

VIX

20.52
Daily: -2.91 (-12.42%)
Weekly: -4.17 (-16.89%)

GOLD

4144.9
Daily: 68.2 (1.67%)
Weekly: 83.6 (2.06%)

COPPER

5.14
Daily: 0.13 (2.67%)
Weekly: 0.18 (3.62%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.57
Closest Support: $56.35 3.79% below current price
Closest Resistance: $58.73 0.27% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support
0.236 $58.73 Resistance
0.382 $60.2
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.84
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-24 23:49:53
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.01%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-25 $58.84 $56.84 $60.84
2025-11-26 $58.96 $56.96 $60.97
2025-11-27 $59.08 $57.08 $61.08
2025-11-28 $59.09 $57.09 $61.09
2025-11-29 $59.05 $57.05 $61.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.84.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market is reflected in the $65.20/b average price of the OPEC Reference Basket, down from last month. The Brent-WTI spread remains at $4.50, indicating persistent differences in global versus U.S. supply/demand dynamics. With hedge funds maintaining a bearish stance, traders should be cautious of potential price volatility.

The support levels may be observed around $60.00/b for WTI, while resistance could be seen near $65.00/b. The current market structure remains in backwardation, suggesting a healthy physical oil market, but the bearish positioning of managed money indicates potential reversal risks.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the bearish market sentiment and a decline in crude prices, producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies. The $60.07/b average for NYMEX WTI may impact revenue forecasts, necessitating a review of operational costs.

The recent increase in OECD commercial inventories by 6.0 mb suggests a potential oversupply, which could further pressure prices. Producers should monitor inventory levels closely, especially as crude and product stocks remain below the five-year average, indicating a tightening market in the future.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices exhibit volatility. With current prices averaging $60.07/b for WTI, there may be opportunities for procurement at lower rates, but supply reliability risks remain, particularly due to geopolitical tensions affecting crude imports.

The bearish sentiment in the market, coupled with a decline in U.S. crude imports to 5.6 mb/d, may lead to tighter product availability. Consumers should consider strategic hedging to mitigate risks associated with potential price spikes driven by geopolitical events or inventory fluctuations.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market currently reflects a complex interplay of factors. The bearish sentiment is supported by a decline in prices across key benchmarks, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening market, despite increasing inventories.

Analysts should note that the bearish positioning of managed money traders, with a net position of -17,481 contracts, indicates potential for market reversals. The outlook remains cautious, with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand from key regions like China and India influencing overall market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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