Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-23 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/23/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step. If this goes down below 57.35, we could head down to the 40s - I expect a battleground at this level for the next few weeks.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-23 23:46:43 Length: 516 chars
Crude Oil has been caught in a limbo, with OPEC+ announcing a modest December quota increase while grappling with underperformance from members like Nigeria. The market remains fixated on the $60 battleground, with a potential re-test of $57.35 looming. As geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation, weigh down prices, the demand-supply dynamics suggest OPEC+ may be ill-prepared for any forthcoming demand surge. Watch for price movements below $57.35, which could signal a drop into the $40s.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.56 $0.82
WTI: $58.06 $0.94
Spread: $4.5 (Brent premium of $4.50)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -17,481
Weekly Change: 31,534

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.05
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.18

MA(20): $59.82

Current Price is 58.05, 9 day MA 59.18, 20 day MA 59.82

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.5137

Signal: -0.3874

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.38

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 10,425

Avg (20d): 229,592

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 17.18

%D: 21.6

Stochastic %K: 17.18, %D: 21.6. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.49

+DI: 15.0

-DI: 22.98

ADX: 14.49 (+DI: 15.0, -DI: 22.98). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.82

Williams %R: -82.82 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.67

Middle: 59.82

Lower: 57.97

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.67, Middle: 59.82, Lower: 57.97

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13834.0 13862.0 13400.0 12833.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5950.0 5222.0 6509.0 7092.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4158.0 2816.0 3440.0 4468.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16232.0 15973.0 16509.0 16047.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1792.0 2406.0 3069.0 2623.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 424155.0 427581.0 429747.0 436670.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1680113.0 1682295.0 1628553.0 1621003.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 207391.0 205064.0 206873.0 212115.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 111080.0 110909.0 114415.0 109654.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $62.56, change $-0.82. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.06, change $-0.94. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.5 (Brent premium of $4.50). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.56
0.82
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.06
0.94
(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.5
Brent premium of $4.50

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down by $5.19/b month-on-month. Despite this price drop, the global oil demand growth forecast remains stable, with a projected increase of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while non-DoC production is expected to rise, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.494 mb/d 105.135 mb/d
Non-DoC Production 51.439 mb/d N/A
DoC Production 43.02 mb/d N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The analysis of production and demand figures reveals a slight deficit in the global oil market, with total world demand at 105.135 mb/d compared to a total production of 104.494 mb/d. This indicates a supply shortfall of approximately 0.641 mb/d, which could exert upward pressure on prices if the trend continues.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to world oil production include the Americas (25.19 mb/d), Europe (13.51 mb/d), and the Middle East (9.01 mb/d). Notably, the US leads non-DoC production with 22.07 mb/d, while DoC production has seen a slight decrease of 73 tb/d month-on-month, averaging 43.02 mb/d in October.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, particularly China (16.85 mb/d) and India (5.70 mb/d). The OECD region's demand remains relatively stagnant, highlighting the shifting dynamics towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is expected to reach 51.439 mb/d, significantly outpacing DoC production at 43.02 mb/d. This trend underscores the increasing role of non-OPEC producers in meeting global oil demand, which may challenge OPEC's market influence moving forward.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a strategic response to declining prices and increasing non-DoC production. The organization may consider adjusting production levels to stabilize prices and maintain market share, particularly as demand growth is primarily driven by non-OECD countries.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the oil market may experience volatility due to the interplay of rising non-DoC production and stable demand growth. OPEC's potential adjustments in production strategies will be critical in navigating these challenges and maintaining price stability in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the balance between supply and demand closely, as a persistent deficit could lead to price increases.
  • Evaluate the impact of non-DoC production growth on OPEC's market share and pricing strategies.
  • Consider proactive adjustments in production levels to mitigate the effects of price declines.
  • Focus on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, as key drivers of future demand growth.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that may affect oil supply chains and market dynamics.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)
Report Date: 2025-10-07

Managed Money

-17,481
Change: -31,534
-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

294,284
Change: +20,623
14.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-392,340
Change: +14,417
-19.3% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,074
Change: 29,716

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-07

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,074 contracts (+29,716)

Managed Money Net Position: -17,481 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -31,534 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 294,284 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -392,340 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 28
Last Updated: 2025-11-23 23:49:49

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.18
Daily: -0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly: 0.63 (0.63%)

US_10Y

4.06
Daily: -0.04 (-1.05%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.69%)

SP500

6602.99
Daily: 64.23 (0.98%)
Weekly: -69.42 (-1.04%)

VIX

23.43
Daily: -2.99 (-11.32%)
Weekly: 1.05 (4.69%)

GOLD

4043.2
Daily: -33.5 (-0.82%)
Weekly: -18.1 (-0.45%)

COPPER

5.0
Daily: -0.01 (-0.2%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.73%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.05
Closest Support: $56.35 2.93% below current price
Closest Resistance: $58.73 1.17% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support
0.236 $58.73 Resistance
0.382 $60.2
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.06
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-23 23:49:51
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.13%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-22 $57.98 $55.98 $59.98
2025-11-23 $57.99 $55.99 $59.99
2025-11-24 $58.08 $56.08 $60.08
2025-11-25 $58.19 $56.19 $60.19
2025-11-26 $58.27 $56.27 $60.27

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2025-11-22), reaching $57.98.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-22 and 2025-11-26.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.700, indicates potential downward price pressure. With the Brent-WTI spread at $4.50, traders should monitor the implications of supply/demand dynamics and geopolitical developments, particularly in light of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation.

The support levels for WTI are around $58.06, while resistance could be seen at $63.95 for Brent. The risk of volatility remains high due to the extreme bearish positioning of managed money, which could signal a potential reversal if sentiment shifts.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decrease in demand for DoC crude to 42.4 mb/d in 2025 and 43.0 mb/d in 2026 suggests producers may need to adjust their production planning and hedging strategies. The current inventory levels, particularly the increase in OECD commercial stocks, highlight the need for careful management of production rates to avoid oversupply.

Additionally, the bearish market sentiment and declining prices could impact profitability, necessitating a reassessment of operational costs and pricing strategies.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, with WTI and Brent showing $58.06 and $62.56 respectively. The current geopolitical tensions and inventory levels could impact supply reliability, necessitating strategic procurement planning.

With US product exports increasing, refiners may benefit from hedging against price spikes while capitalizing on lower crude prices to manage costs effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing bearish pressures driven by weak demand forecasts and high inventory levels. The balance of supply and demand indicates a potential oversupply scenario, especially with non-DoC liquids production expected to rise.

Analysts should closely monitor the geopolitical landscape and market sentiment, particularly the implications of managed money positioning, which currently reflects an extremely bearish outlook. This could indicate potential shifts in market dynamics if sentiment changes, warranting a reevaluation of forecasts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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