Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/14/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection.

Updated: 2025-11-14 23:46:56 Length: 519 chars

Crude Oil has recently been in a state of limbo, influenced by OPEC+'s December quota increase of 137 KBOPD while facing a Q1 hold on any further increases. Despite OPEC+ quotas remaining unmet—especially Nigeria lagging by 260,000 bopd—global demand spikes could catch them unprepared. Geopolitical tensions, particularly from Russia and Ukraine, have caused recent price rallies. As we approach a critical $60 support level, traders should watch for potential retests around $57.35 as we navigate these mixed signals.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.01 $0.3

WTI: $58.69 $0.2

Spread: $4.32 (Brent premium of $4.32)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $59.95

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.74

MA(20): $59.97

Current Price is 59.95, 9 day MA 59.74, 20 day MA 59.97

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3929

Signal: -0.401

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.56

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 302,448

Avg (20d): 285,436

Ratio: 1.06

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 54.14

%D: 24.22

Stochastic %K: 54.14, %D: 24.22. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.7

+DI: 19.76

-DI: 21.59

ADX: 16.7 (+DI: 19.76, -DI: 21.59). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -45.86

Williams %R: -45.86 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 62.37

Middle: 59.97

Lower: 57.56

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 62.37, Middle: 59.97, Lower: 57.56

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13862.0	13651.0	13500.0	12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5222.0	5924.0	6240.0	6147.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2816.0	4367.0	2850.0	4063.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15973.0	15256.0	16334.0	16020.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2406.0	1557.0	3390.0	2083.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	427581.0	421168.0	427658.0	434818.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1682295.0	1678973.0	1634461.0	1617452.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	205064.0	206009.0	211280.0	210161.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	110909.0	111546.0	115809.0	109459.0

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.01, change $+0.3. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $58.69, change $+0.2. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.32 (Brent premium of $4.32). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.01

0.3

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.69

0.2

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.32

Brent premium of $4.32

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down by $5.19/b month-on-month. Despite this price drop, global oil demand growth remains stable, projected at approximately 1.3 mb/d for 2025, while production levels from both DoC and Non-DoC countries exhibit varied trends.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	105.135	105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439	N/A
DoC Production	43.02	N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current data indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario with total world production matching total world demand at 105.135 mb/d. However, the production from DoC countries at 43.02 mb/d suggests a slight tightening in the market, as demand for DoC crude is revised down to 42.4 mb/d for 2025, indicating a potential deficit in the DoC segment.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the US (22.068 mb/d), Brazil (4.389 mb/d), and Canada (6.063 mb/d). The total Non-DoC production is projected at 51.439 mb/d, with significant contributions from the Americas and the Middle East. The DoC production has seen a slight decrease to 43.02 mb/d, indicating a need for OPEC to adjust its strategies to maintain market stability.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions driving most of this growth at 1.2 mb/d. In contrast, OECD demand is expected to increase marginally by 0.1 mb/d. Notably, China and India remain significant players, with respective demands of 16.853 mb/d and 5.704 mb/d, highlighting their critical roles in future demand dynamics.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

The Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than the DoC production of 43.02 mb/d. This disparity suggests that Non-DoC countries are likely to play a more pivotal role in meeting global oil demand, particularly as DoC production faces potential constraints due to revised demand forecasts.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by declining prices and stable demand forecasts. The organization may need to consider strategic production adjustments to counterbalance the anticipated deficit in DoC crude demand and to stabilize prices in the face of increasing Non-DoC production.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we move into the coming months, OPEC may face challenges in maintaining price stability amidst rising Non-DoC production. The projected growth in global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, could provide opportunities for OPEC to enhance its market share through strategic production management.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely, as they may impact OPEC's market share.
Consider adjusting production levels to align with the revised demand for DoC crude.
Focus on enhancing relationships with major demand centers, particularly in Asia.
Prepare for potential price volatility due to shifts in global supply dynamics.
Evaluate the effectiveness of current production strategies in light of changing market conditions.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 66

Last Updated: 2025-11-14 23:49:56

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.27

Daily: 0.09 (0.09%)

Weekly: -0.35 (-0.35%)

US_10Y

4.15

Daily: 0.04 (0.88%)

Weekly: 0.04 (0.92%)

SP500

6734.11

Daily: -3.38 (-0.05%)

Weekly: -98.32 (-1.44%)

VIX

19.83

Daily: -0.17 (-0.85%)

Weekly: 2.23 (12.67%)

GOLD

4084.4

Daily: -102.5 (-2.45%)

Weekly: -27.4 (-0.67%)

COPPER

5.05

Daily: -0.04 (-0.74%)

Weekly: -0.04 (-0.73%)

Current Price: $59.95

Closest Support: $58.73 2.04% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.42% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $58.69

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-14 23:49:58

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.23%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-14	$58.56	$56.43	$60.68
2025-11-15	$58.44	$56.32	$60.57
2025-11-16	$58.58	$56.45	$60.71
2025-11-17	$58.74	$56.61	$60.87
2025-11-18	$58.74	$56.61	$60.87

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.23% for the next trading day (2025-11-14), reaching $58.56.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-14 and 2025-11-18.
The average confidence interval width is ~7.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

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For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics suggest a bearish sentiment in crude oil prices, as evidenced by the $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value. The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread indicates a slight narrowing, reflecting shifts in supply-demand dynamics. Traders should monitor the support levels around $60.00 for WTI and $63.00 for Brent, with potential resistance at $65.00. With managed money positions indicating a weakening bullish stance, volatility may present short-term trading opportunities, particularly as geopolitical factors continue to influence price movements.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the balance of supply and demand showing a slight downward revision in demand for DoC crude, producers should consider adjusting production planning accordingly. The current $60.07 average for WTI and the $63.95 for Brent suggest a need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. Additionally, rising inventory levels, particularly in OECD commercial stocks, may impact market sentiment and should be factored into operational strategies.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, especially with WTI trading at $60.07 and Brent at $63.95. The geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning Middle Eastern supplies, poses supply reliability risks that could affect procurement strategies. The recent decline in crude imports and rising product exports from the U.S. may signal shifting dynamics that could influence pricing. Considering these factors, consumers might explore hedging options to stabilize costs amidst market volatility.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment from technical indicators and bullish signals from some fundamental aspects. The ongoing demand growth forecast remains stable, yet the $5.19 decline in OPEC Reference Basket value indicates underlying weaknesses. Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical risks and inventory levels, as well as monitor the managed money positioning, which suggests potential shifts in market dynamics. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic but warrants close observation for any signs of reversal.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional before making trading or investment decisions.