Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/13/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection.

Updated: 2025-11-13 23:46:45 Length: 566 chars

Crude oil has been in a state of limbo, with OPEC+ announcing a minor increase in December but pausing any further quota hikes. Currently, OPEC+ struggles to meet production targets, especially Nigeria, which is falling short by 260,000 bpd. This raises concerns about supply if global demand rises. Recent market movements show crude prices climbing due to dollar weakness and optimism surrounding energy demand, but technical signals suggest a potential test at $57.35. Keep an eye on geopolitical factors and OPEC+ compliance as we navigate these volatile waters.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.71 $2.45

WTI: $58.49 $2.55

Spread: $4.22 (Brent premium of $4.22)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $59.57

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $59.96

MA(20): $59.89

Current Price is 59.57, 9 day MA 59.96, 20 day MA 59.89

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3685

Signal: -0.3889

Days since crossover: 16

MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.35

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.35 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 64,340

Avg (20d): 266,600

Ratio: 0.24

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 32.82

%D: 32.01

Stochastic %K: 32.82, %D: 32.01. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.53

+DI: 13.94

-DI: 21.78

ADX: 17.53 (+DI: 13.94, -DI: 21.78). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -67.18

Williams %R: -67.18 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 62.47

Middle: 59.89

Lower: 57.31

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 62.47, Middle: 59.89, Lower: 57.31

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13862.0	13651.0	13500.0	12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5222.0	5924.0	6240.0	6147.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2816.0	4367.0	2850.0	4063.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15973.0	15256.0	16334.0	16020.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2406.0	1557.0	3390.0	2083.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	427581.0	421168.0	427658.0	434818.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1682295.0	1678973.0	1634461.0	1617452.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	205064.0	206009.0	211280.0	210161.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	110909.0	111546.0	115809.0	109459.0

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $62.71, change $-2.45. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $58.49, change $-2.55. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.22 (Brent premium of $4.22). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.71

2.45

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.49

2.55

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.22

Brent premium of $4.22

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down from the previous month. Despite this price drop, global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to increase, potentially impacting OPEC's market share.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Value (mb/d)
World Production	105.135
World Demand	105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439
DoC Production	43.02

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The supply-demand balance indicates that global oil production is aligned with demand at approximately 105.135 mb/d. However, with DoC production at 43.02 mb/d and Non-DoC production at 51.439 mb/d, there is a potential surplus of Non-DoC production that could exert downward pressure on prices and challenge OPEC's market position.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.186 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.509 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.014 mb/d. Notably, the US Non-DoC production is a significant contributor at 22.068 mb/d, indicating robust output from North America. The decline in DoC production by 73 tb/d in October highlights the challenges faced by OPEC producers in maintaining output levels.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, primarily driven by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. OECD demand growth remains muted at 0.1 mb/d, suggesting a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets. This trend presents both opportunities and challenges for OPEC in adjusting its production strategies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

The comparison between Non-DoC and DoC production reveals that Non-DoC production stands at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.02 mb/d. This disparity indicates a growing influence of Non-DoC producers in the global oil market, which could impact OPEC's pricing power and market share.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by declining prices and increasing competition from Non-DoC producers. The organization may need to reassess its production strategies and consider potential adjustments to output levels to stabilize prices and maintain its influence in the market.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the combination of steady demand growth in non-OECD regions and increasing Non-DoC production suggests that OPEC may face continued pressure on prices. Strategic decisions regarding production cuts or adjustments will be crucial in navigating these market dynamics in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely, as they pose a significant challenge to OPEC's market share.
Consider strategic production adjustments to stabilize prices amidst increasing competition.
Focus on enhancing cooperation among DoC members to ensure collective market stability.
Evaluate demand growth patterns in emerging markets to align production strategies effectively.
Prepare for potential volatility in oil prices due to external economic factors and geopolitical developments.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.4

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 70

Last Updated: 2025-11-13 23:49:37

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.17

Daily: -0.31 (-0.31%)

Weekly: -0.43 (-0.43%)

US_10Y

4.11

Daily: 0.05 (1.16%)

Weekly: 0.02 (0.46%)

SP500

6737.49

Daily: -113.43 (-1.66%)

Weekly: 8.69 (0.13%)

VIX

20.0

Daily: 2.49 (14.22%)

Weekly: 0.92 (4.82%)

GOLD

4205.9

Daily: 1.5 (0.04%)

Weekly: 206.5 (5.16%)

COPPER

5.07

Daily: -0.02 (-0.32%)

Weekly: 0.13 (2.73%)

Current Price: $59.57

Closest Support: $58.73 1.41% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 1.06% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $58.69

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-13 23:49:40

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.22%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-14	$58.56	$56.43	$60.69
2025-11-15	$58.46	$56.34	$60.59
2025-11-16	$58.59	$56.46	$60.72
2025-11-17	$58.74	$56.62	$60.87
2025-11-18	$58.74	$56.62	$60.87

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.22% for the next trading day (2025-11-14), reaching $58.56.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-14 and 2025-11-18.
The average confidence interval width is ~7.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is underscored by a significant drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value, which fell by $5.19/b to average $65.20/b. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.22 indicates a persistent premium for Brent, suggesting potential risk in U.S. supply dynamics.

Traders should monitor Fibonacci support levels around $60/b for WTI, which could serve as a critical threshold in the near term. Given the current market structure in backwardation, there may be short-term opportunities arising from volatility, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate or if inventory levels shift unexpectedly.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight downward revision in demand for DoC crude, now at 42.4 mb/d for 2025. This shift necessitates careful strategic planning around production levels and hedging strategies to mitigate potential impacts from fluctuating prices and demand uncertainties.

With OECD commercial inventories rising by 6.0 mb, producers should assess their inventory management practices to avoid oversupply situations that could further depress prices. The current bearish sentiment among hedge funds, coupled with a significant net position reduction, suggests that producers may need to adopt a more cautious approach to production increases.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The recent fluctuations in crude prices, with WTI averaging $60.07/b, indicate potential input cost volatility for consumers. The risk of supply disruptions remains, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and the potential for further sanctions impacting product flows.

Refineries should consider adjusting procurement strategies, especially as refining margins have improved in regions like the USGC. Monitoring the Brent-WTI spread will also be crucial for optimizing input costs and managing hedging strategies against price increases.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current crude oil market landscape presents a bearish outlook, driven by a combination of rising inventories and bearish positioning from managed money traders. The fundamental balance remains delicate, with the global oil demand forecast unchanged at 1.3 mb/d growth for 2025, while supply from non-DoC countries is expected to rise.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the geopolitical dynamics and inventory levels, as these factors are likely to influence market sentiment and price trajectories. The mixed news sentiment, currently rated at +0.400, suggests potential volatility ahead, making it essential to stay updated on macroeconomic indicators and market positioning shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.