Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/10/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude oil has everything bearish about it - but the bulls are really trying to keep this close to 60. 57.35 is the line in the sand - if that goes - we could in fact drop all the way down to the 40s. Fundamentally I don’t see that happening - but staying in the 50s seems very likely for the near term. OPEC+ adding some more barrels in Nov/Dec along with China who is still importing over a million bopd ONLY FOR their strategic petroleum reserve. I think we’ll mostly be sideways but watch what happens when we get to 57.35 - that will be the last line of hope for bulls….and the attack point for bears. We only turn bullish if we get above 61.64 which is beyond the big psychological barrier of 60. 57.35 is a BIG BIG deal - probably why bulls are trying to keep us above there. The bulls on Sunday pushed just above $60 - this isn’t a big move but the psychological level is going to be the center of the battle. Sunday / Monday was a flat move and almost like a “no action” day - holding pattern.

Updated: 2025-11-10 23:46:51 Length: 539 chars

Crude oil is currently in a precarious position, with bearish fundamentals battling against bulls trying to keep prices above the critical $57.35 mark. A dip below this level could lead to a plunge into the $40s, while a sustained rally above $61.64 would signal a bullish shift. OPEC+ plans to increase production in November/December, and China's strategic reserves are still drawing in over a million barrels per day. Watch for volatility as market sentiment fluctuates around these key levels—it's a tug-of-war worth keeping an eye on!

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.63 $0.25

WTI: $59.75 $0.32

Spread: $3.88 (Brent premium of $3.88)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $59.97

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.27

MA(20): $59.65

Current Price is 59.97, 9 day MA 60.27, 20 day MA 59.65

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3517

Signal: -0.4451

Days since crossover: 13

MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.77

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.77 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,013

Avg (20d): 257,242

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 50.1

%D: 49.58

Stochastic %K: 50.1, %D: 49.58. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.54

+DI: 15.31

-DI: 22.95

ADX: 17.54 (+DI: 15.31, -DI: 22.95). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -49.9

Williams %R: -49.9 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.42

Middle: 59.65

Lower: 56.87

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.42, Middle: 59.65, Lower: 56.87

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13651.0	13644.0	13500.0	12933.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5924.0	5051.0	5975.0	6362.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4367.0	4361.0	4261.0	3632.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15256.0	15219.0	16053.0	15886.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	1557.0	690.0	1714.0	2730.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	421168.0	415966.0	425509.0	434725.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1678973.0	1677842.0	1634198.0	1622988.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	206009.0	210738.0	210868.0	211407.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	111546.0	112189.0	112862.0	110024.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.63, change $+0.25. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.75, change $+0.32. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.88 (Brent premium of $3.88). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.63

0.25

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.75

0.32

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.88

Brent premium of $3.88

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to rise, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics in the coming months.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	105.135	105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439	N/A
DoC Production	43.05	42.5

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance of supply and demand indicates that global oil demand is projected at 105.135 mb/d for 2025, while total production is expected to meet this demand. However, the increase in non-DoC production could lead to a surplus if DoC countries do not adjust their output accordingly, potentially impacting prices.

Production Landscape:

Production is predominantly driven by the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East, with the US leading non-DoC production at 22.067 mb/d. Notable changes include a slight increase in DoC production to 43.05 mb/d, reflecting OPEC's efforts to stabilize the market amidst fluctuating global demand.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. The OECD region shows modest growth, indicating a shift in demand dynamics towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.05 mb/d. This disparity highlights the increasing role of non-OECD producers in the global oil supply, which may challenge OPEC's market share and pricing power.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels, balancing the need to support prices with the reality of increasing non-DoC production. Future policy directions may focus on maintaining production discipline among member countries to counteract the rising output from non-OPEC producers.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As global demand continues to grow, OPEC is likely to face pressure to adjust production levels. The anticipated increase in non-DoC production may lead to a more competitive market environment, necessitating strategic adjustments from OPEC to maintain its influence over oil prices.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor non-DoC production trends closely, as they may impact OPEC's pricing strategy.
Consider potential adjustments in DoC production levels to align with changing demand dynamics.
Focus on strengthening relationships with emerging market consumers to secure long-term demand.
Evaluate the impact of global economic growth forecasts on oil demand and adjust strategies accordingly.
Prepare for potential volatility in oil prices due to shifts in supply-demand balance.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.4

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 33

Last Updated: 2025-11-10 23:50:22

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.66

Daily: 0.06 (0.06%)

Weekly: -0.56 (-0.56%)

US_10Y

4.11

Daily: 0.02 (0.42%)

Weekly: 0.02 (0.51%)

SP500

6832.43

Daily: 103.63 (1.54%)

Weekly: 60.88 (0.9%)

VIX

17.6

Daily: -1.48 (-7.76%)

Weekly: -1.4 (-7.37%)

GOLD

4151.6

Daily: 152.2 (3.81%)

Weekly: 203.9 (5.17%)

COPPER

5.09

Daily: 0.15 (3.07%)

Weekly: 0.16 (3.32%)

Current Price: $59.97

Closest Support: $58.73 2.07% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.38% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $60.13

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-10 23:50:25

Next Trading Day: UP 0.19%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-11	$60.25	$58.29	$62.2
2025-11-12	$60.34	$58.39	$62.29
2025-11-13	$60.33	$58.38	$62.29
2025-11-14	$60.29	$58.33	$62.24
2025-11-15	$60.25	$58.3	$62.2

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.19% for the next trading day (2025-11-11), reaching $60.25.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-11 and 2025-11-15.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

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For Energy Traders:

The recent market movements indicate a bearish sentiment overall, with the $63.53 WTI price reflecting a slight decline. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.05, indicating potential risks in the U.S. supply dynamics compared to global benchmarks. Traders should be cautious of volatility due to the current bearish sentiment score of -0.400, particularly as managed money positions are net short, suggesting a potential for further downward pressure.

Support levels can be observed near the $60.00 mark for WTI, while resistance is seen around $65.00. Traders should monitor the impact of geopolitical events and inventory levels, as these can shift market dynamics rapidly.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The stable production levels from OPEC and non-OPEC countries suggest a balanced supply outlook, yet the bearish sentiment in the market could impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies in light of the $63.53 WTI price, focusing on locking in prices before potential further declines. The increase in OECD commercial crude stocks, which are 192.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average, indicates a tightening supply that could lead to price increases in the medium term.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With the current $63.53 WTI price, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly as refinery margins have started to rise due to seasonal maintenance. The risk of supply disruptions remains, especially with geopolitical tensions and the current bearish sentiment in the market. Companies should consider procurement strategies that allow for flexibility in response to sudden price changes and ensure reliable supply chains, particularly for middle distillates which are currently in demand due to limited availability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The crude oil market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish sentiment and stable demand growth forecasts. The global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d in 2025, yet the bearish positioning of managed money suggests caution. The widening Brent-WTI spread reflects divergent supply dynamics that analysts should monitor closely. The current state of commercial inventories, which are significantly below historical averages, indicates potential tightening in supply that could shift market sentiment positively if demand holds strong.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.