Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/06/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude oil has everything bearish about it - but the bulls are really trying to keep this close to 60. 57.35 is the line in the sand - if that goes - we could in fact drop all the way down to the 40s. Fundamentally I don’t see that happening - but staying in the 50s seems very likely for the near term. OPEC+ adding some more barrels in Nov/Dec along with China who is still importing over a million bopd ONLY FOR their strategic petroleum reserve. I think we’ll mostly be sideways but watch what happens when we get to 57.35 - that will be the last line of hope for bulls….and the attack point for bears. We only turn bullish if we get above 61.64.

Updated: 2025-11-06 23:47:13 Length: 495 chars

Crude oil is facing a bearish sentiment, with a pivotal support level at $57.35. If breached, prices could plunge into the $40s, although fundamentals suggest a stay in the $50s for now. OPEC+ plans to increase production in Nov/Dec, while China continues to import oil for its strategic reserves. Recent weekly losses reflect lingering supply concerns, with Saudi Aramco cutting prices adding to the downward pressure. Watch for that $57.35 line—it's the battleground for bulls and bears alike!

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.52 $0.92

WTI: $59.6 $0.96

Spread: $3.92 (Brent premium of $3.92)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $59.78

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.5

MA(20): $59.6

Current Price is 59.78, 9 day MA 60.5, 20 day MA 59.6

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3333

Signal: -0.4879

Days since crossover: 11

MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.19

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 11,403

Avg (20d): 264,561

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 54.97

%D: 58.17

Stochastic %K: 54.97, %D: 58.17. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.68

+DI: 17.62

-DI: 23.07

ADX: 16.68 (+DI: 17.62, -DI: 23.07). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -45.03

Williams %R: -45.03 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.39

Middle: 59.6

Lower: 56.81

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.39, Middle: 59.6, Lower: 56.81

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13651.0	13644.0	13500.0	12933.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5924.0	5051.0	5975.0	6362.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4367.0	4361.0	4261.0	3632.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15256.0	15219.0	16053.0	15886.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	1557.0	690.0	1714.0	2730.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	421168.0	415966.0	425509.0	434725.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1678973.0	1677842.0	1634198.0	1622988.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	206009.0	210738.0	210868.0	211407.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	111546.0	112189.0	112862.0	110024.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.52, change $-0.92. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.6, change $-0.96. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.92 (Brent premium of $3.92). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.52

0.92

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.6

0.96

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.92

Brent premium of $3.92

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, while production from both DoC and Non-DoC countries shows varied trends, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Value (mb/d)
World Production	Americas: 25.19 Europe: 13.51 Asia Pacific: 7.13 Total OECD: 45.83 China: 16.85 India: 5.70 Other Asia: 9.89 Latin America: 6.89 Middle East: 9.01 Africa: 4.80 Russia: 4.02 Other Eurasia: 1.31 Other Europe: 0.82 Total Non-OECD: 59.31
World Demand	Americas Demand: 25.19 Europe Demand: 13.51 Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13 Total OECD Demand: 45.83 China Demand: 16.85 India Demand: 5.70 Other Asia Demand: 9.89 Latin America Demand: 6.89 Middle East Demand: 9.01 Africa Demand: 4.80 Russia Demand: 4.02 Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31 Other Europe Demand: 0.82 Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31 Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production	US Non-DoC Production: 22.07 Canada Non-DoC Production: 6.06 Chile Non-DoC Production: 0.01 OECD Americas Non-DoC Production: 28.14 Norway Non-DoC Production: 2.02 UK Non-DoC Production: 0.72 Denmark Non-DoC Production: 0.07 Other OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 0.76 OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 3.58 Australia Non-DoC Production: 0.35 China Non-DoC Production: 4.61 India Non-DoC Production: 0.82 Indonesia Non-DoC Production: 0.83 Latin America Non-DoC Production: 7.53 Middle East Non-DoC Production: 2.01 Africa Non-DoC Production: 2.28 Total Non-OECD Non-DoC Production: 19.30
DoC Production	Data not provided in the raw CSV.

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current analysis indicates that global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while production from DoC countries has increased to an average of 43.05 mb/d. This results in a slight surplus in the market, as demand for DoC crude is expected to reach 42.5 mb/d. The balance suggests a tightening market, with potential implications for price stability if production levels are maintained.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the Americas lead in production with 25.19 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.51 mb/d. Notably, Non-DoC production is significantly driven by the US, Canada, and Brazil, which are expected to contribute to a growth of 0.8 mb/d year-on-year. The Middle East's production remains crucial, with 9.01 mb/d, highlighting its ongoing importance in the global supply chain.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is anticipated to grow steadily, particularly in the non-OECD regions, where demand is projected to increase by about 1.2 mb/d in 2025. China and India continue to be significant contributors to this growth, with demands of 16.85 mb/d and 5.70 mb/d, respectively. However, challenges remain in the form of economic fluctuations and potential geopolitical tensions that could impact these projections.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected to reach 51.44 mb/d in 2025, indicating a robust contribution to global supply. In contrast, DoC production is expected to average around 43.05 mb/d. The data suggests that Non-DoC countries are increasingly pivotal in meeting global demand, especially as they continue to expand their production capabilities.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears stable, with a slight increase in crude oil production from DoC countries. The organization is likely to maintain its production strategy to balance the market, especially in light of the projected demand growth. OPEC's ability to respond to market changes will be critical in maintaining price stability and ensuring a steady supply.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.75

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 59

Last Updated: 2025-11-06 23:50:27

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.75

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.8

Daily: -0.4 (-0.4%)

Weekly: 0.0 (0.0%)

US_10Y

4.09

Daily: -0.06 (-1.54%)

Weekly: -0.01 (-0.2%)

SP500

6720.32

Daily: -75.97 (-1.12%)

Weekly: -119.88 (-1.75%)

VIX

19.5

Daily: 1.49 (8.27%)

Weekly: 2.06 (11.81%)

GOLD

4002.9

Daily: 22.6 (0.57%)

Weekly: 20.7 (0.52%)

COPPER

4.97

Daily: 0.01 (0.23%)

Weekly: -0.09 (-1.8%)

Current Price: $59.78

Closest Support: $58.73 1.76% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.7% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $59.43

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-06 23:50:30

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.08%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-07	$59.38	$57.27	$61.5
2025-11-08	$59.42	$57.3	$61.54
2025-11-09	$59.52	$57.4	$61.64
2025-11-10	$59.59	$57.48	$61.71
2025-11-11	$59.61	$57.49	$61.73

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-07), reaching $59.38.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-07 and 2025-11-11.
The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market signals suggest a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.750. The Brent-WTI spread remains at $3.92, indicating a slight premium for Brent, which may reflect ongoing geopolitical tensions and differing supply dynamics.

Traders should monitor support levels around $63.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent, while resistance could be seen at $65.00 for WTI and $70.00 for Brent. The increased volatility in the market could present short-term trading opportunities, particularly with the flattening forward curves suggesting potential price corrections.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With OPEC's crude oil production increasing by 630 tb/d, producers should consider adjusting their production planning to align with the anticipated supply-demand balance, which remains stable with a demand for DoC crude at 42.5 mb/d for 2025.

The current inventory levels show a decrease in crude stocks by 10.4 mb, indicating potential supply tightness. Producers may want to implement effective hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and maintain profitability amid a bearish market sentiment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices are subject to volatility. With the current average prices at WTI: $63.53 and Brent: $67.58, procurement strategies should be revisited to ensure stability in supply and cost.

The tightening of product markets, particularly in middle distillates, could lead to increased procurement costs. Additionally, geopolitical factors and inventory levels should be closely monitored to assess supply reliability risks in the coming months.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market currently reflects a bearish sentiment driven by weak demand indicators and a significant net short position among traders. The stable global economic growth forecast of 3.0% for 2025, alongside a balanced supply-demand outlook, suggests a cautious approach to future price predictions.

Key driving factors include geopolitical tensions, fluctuating inventory levels, and a flattened forward curve. Analysts should focus on these elements when assessing the market's potential shifts, especially given the mixed sentiment across various news outlets and the potential for market corrections.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.