Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-03 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/03/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Fundamentals appear to be pretty bearish - with the lone exception being distillate stocks globally which are bullish. Russian sanctions added a little momentum to push crude above $60 - but I don’t see that as really turning anything bullish. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. Crude’s recovery to 61.64 is stalled (and for good reason) - I would see this as a tipping point before dropping back to 57.35 (the number I see coming this week). Crude is simply stuck - even an optimistic bullish headline like OPEC+ halting production hikes at the beginning of Q1 2026 - WTI could not even get above the key 61.64. It will take a massive bullish headline to move the market (Russian sanctions, OPEC+ halting production hikes, Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine…the oil market has shrugged off ALL OF THESE)... 57.35 is the next stop.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-03 23:47:01 Length: 525 chars
Crude oil fundamentals lean bearish, with key levels of $61.64 and $57.35 in focus. Despite recent headlines on OPEC+ halting production hikes, prices struggle to break resistance, hinting at a likely dip to $57.35. Global distillate stocks provide a rare bullish signal, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Watch for volatility as the market reacts to geopolitical tensions and economic indicators. A significant bullish catalyst is needed to shift this stagnant trend, but for now, crude appears stuck in a tight range.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.07 $0.07
WTI: $60.98 $0.41
Spread: $4.09 (Brent premium of $4.09)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.89
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.69

MA(20): $59.88

Current Price is 60.89, 9 day MA 60.69, 20 day MA 59.88

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.315

Signal: -0.66

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.83

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,779

Avg (20d): 277,569

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 72.76

%D: 71.53

Stochastic %K: 72.76, %D: 71.53. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.92

+DI: 20.33

-DI: 22.29

ADX: 17.92 (+DI: 20.33, -DI: 22.29). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -27.24

Williams %R: -27.24 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 63.13

Middle: 59.88

Lower: 56.63

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 63.13, Middle: 59.88, Lower: 56.63

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13644.0 13629.0 13500.0 12866.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5051.0 5918.0 6431.0 6201.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4361.0 4203.0 4112.0 4361.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15219.0 15730.0 16084.0 15715.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 690.0 1715.0 2319.0 1840.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 415966.0 422824.0 426024.0 428077.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1677842.0 1693212.0 1642502.0 1623975.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 210738.0 216679.0 213575.0 213674.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112189.0 115551.0 113839.0 110313.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $65.07, change $+0.07. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $60.98, change $+0.41. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.09 (Brent premium of $4.09). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.07
0.07
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$60.98
0.41
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.09
Brent premium of $4.09

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Despite a stable global economic growth forecast, the balance between supply and demand indicates a slight surplus, primarily driven by increased production from non-DoC countries.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.135 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 N/A
DoC Production 43.05 N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The global oil demand for 2025 is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, while production from DoC countries is expected to average 43.05 mb/d. This indicates a potential surplus in the market, particularly as non-DoC production continues to rise, suggesting that OPEC may need to adjust its output to maintain price stability.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the Americas lead with a production of 25.19 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.51 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. Notably, the US Non-DoC production is forecasted at 22.07 mb/d, indicating a robust contribution to global supply. The increase in production from Brazil and Canada further emphasizes the growing influence of non-DoC countries.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with non-OECD countries, particularly India and China, driving most of this growth. Demand in the OECD is projected to remain relatively stagnant, highlighting a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is set to reach 51.439 mb/d, significantly outpacing DoC production at 43.05 mb/d. This disparity underscores the increasing role of non-OPEC producers in the global oil market, which may challenge OPEC's pricing power and market share.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach, balancing the need to support prices against the backdrop of rising non-DoC production. With demand growth primarily in non-OECD regions, OPEC may focus on maintaining its influence through strategic production adjustments and potential collaborations with non-OPEC producers.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we look ahead, the combination of stable demand growth and increasing non-DoC supply suggests that OPEC may face challenges in sustaining higher prices. Market participants should monitor production levels closely, as any significant changes could impact pricing dynamics in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the production trends of non-DoC countries, particularly the US, Brazil, and Canada, as they may influence global pricing.
  • OPEC should consider strategic production cuts to counterbalance the rising supply from non-OPEC producers.
  • Focus on emerging markets, especially in Asia, as key areas for demand growth.
  • Maintain flexibility in production strategies to adapt to changing market conditions and demand forecasts.
  • Engage in dialogue with non-OPEC producers to explore collaborative approaches to stabilize the market.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 40
Last Updated: 2025-11-03 23:50:03

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.88
Daily: 0.08 (0.08%)
Weekly: 1.19 (1.21%)

US_10Y

4.11
Daily: 0.01 (0.12%)
Weekly: 0.12 (3.09%)

SP500

6851.97
Daily: 11.77 (0.17%)
Weekly: -38.92 (-0.56%)

VIX

17.17
Daily: -0.27 (-1.55%)
Weekly: 0.75 (4.57%)

GOLD

4000.5
Daily: 18.3 (0.46%)
Weekly: 34.3 (0.86%)

COPPER

5.02
Daily: -0.05 (-0.93%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.37%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.89
Closest Support: $60.2 1.13% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.38 0.8% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73
0.382 $60.2 Support
0.5 $61.38 Resistance
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $61.05
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-03 23:50:06
Next Trading Day: UP 0.08%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-04 $61.1 $58.89 $63.32
2025-11-05 $61.07 $58.86 $63.29
2025-11-06 $61.04 $58.82 $63.25
2025-11-07 $61.01 $58.79 $63.22
2025-11-08 $61.0 $58.79 $63.21

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-04), reaching $61.10.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-04 and 2025-11-08.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing mixed signals. The overall market sentiment is bullish with a sentiment score of +0.600. However, the Managed Money net position has decreased by 10,316 contracts, indicating a potential weakening in bullish momentum.

The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $4.09, reflecting ongoing differences in global versus U.S. supply and demand dynamics. Traders should monitor this spread as it could signal short-term opportunities or risks based on geopolitical developments and inventory levels.

With the ICE Brent front-month contract averaging $67.58 and the NYMEX WTI at $63.53, potential resistance levels can be identified around these averages, while support may be found closer to recent lows.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels are a critical factor for production planning. With OECD crude stocks down by 10.4 mb month-on-month, producers may need to adjust their output strategies to align with the tightening market conditions.

The bullish sentiment in the market suggests that hedging strategies should be considered to lock in favorable prices. As the demand for DoC crude is projected to rise, maintaining flexibility in production levels will be essential.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Input cost fluctuations are likely, with WTI and Brent prices currently averaging $63.53 and $67.58, respectively. Consumers should prepare for potential supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions, especially in regions like Venezuela, which could affect procurement strategies.

The recent increase in refinery margins indicates that refining operations may become more profitable, but consumers must also consider the impact of inventory levels on product availability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a range of factors. The strong demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, coupled with decreasing inventory levels, paints a complex picture. The global oil supply is also tightening, particularly from non-DoC countries, which may lead to increased prices.

Analysts should note the mixed sentiment from CFTC positioning, where managed money is net short, suggesting caution in bullish forecasts. The geopolitical landscape remains a significant driver of price volatility, necessitating close monitoring of developments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research before making investment decisions.

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