Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-01 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/01/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Fundamentals appear to be pretty bearish - with the lone exception being distillate stocks globally which are bullish. Russian sanctions added a little momentum to push crude above $60 - but I don’t see that as really turning anything bullish. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. Crude’s recovery to 61.64 is stalled (and for good reason) - I would see this as a tipping point before dropping back to 57.35 (the number I see coming this week)

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-01 23:46:34 Length: 519 chars
Crude oil fundamentals appear bearish, with only distillate stocks bucking the trend. Recent Russian sanctions pushed prices above $60, but the momentum seems fleeting. Key resistance is at $61.64, while a dip to $57.35 appears more likely. Geopolitical risks in Venezuela have provided a temporary lift, yet crude futures have fallen for three consecutive months, indicating ongoing volatility. Traders should watch these price levels closely, as the market navigates through uncertain waters with a bearish undertone.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.07 $0.07
WTI: $60.98 $0.41
Spread: $4.09 (Brent premium of $4.09)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.98
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.34

MA(20): $59.92

Current Price is 60.98, 9 day MA 60.34, 20 day MA 59.92

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3915

Signal: -0.7462

Days since crossover: 7

MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.32

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.32 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 247,917

Avg (20d): 286,980

Ratio: 0.86

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 74.2

%D: 69.34

Stochastic %K: 74.2, %D: 69.34. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.94

+DI: 20.57

-DI: 22.55

ADX: 18.94 (+DI: 20.57, -DI: 22.55). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -25.8

Williams %R: -25.8 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 63.24

Middle: 59.92

Lower: 56.61

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 63.24, Middle: 59.92, Lower: 56.61

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13644.0 13629.0 13500.0 12866.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5051.0 5918.0 6431.0 6201.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4361.0 4203.0 4112.0 4361.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15219.0 15730.0 16084.0 15715.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 690.0 1715.0 2319.0 1840.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 415966.0 422824.0 426024.0 428077.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1677842.0 1693212.0 1642502.0 1623975.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 210738.0 216679.0 213575.0 213674.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112189.0 115551.0 113839.0 110313.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $65.07, change $+0.07. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $60.98, change $+0.41. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.09 (Brent premium of $4.09). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.07
0.07
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$60.98
0.41
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.09
Brent premium of $4.09

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The OPEC market is currently experiencing a stable production environment with a slight increase in crude oil prices. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions, while production from non-DoC countries continues to rise, creating a complex supply-demand dynamic.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.135 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 -
DoC Production 43.05 -

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight surplus in the market, with total world production matching total world demand at 105.135 mb/d. However, the increase in non-DoC production, particularly from the US and Brazil, poses a challenge to OPEC's market share and pricing power.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.186 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.509 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.014 mb/d. Notably, the US Non-DoC production is a significant contributor, highlighting its role as a major player in the global oil market.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is forecasted to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving this growth. The OECD demand remains relatively stagnant, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production of 43.05 mb/d. This disparity emphasizes the increasing influence of non-OPEC producers in the global oil supply, which could challenge OPEC's pricing strategies in the near future.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by cautious optimism. The organization is likely to continue monitoring non-DoC production levels closely while balancing its own production to maintain price stability amidst rising global demand.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

In the coming months, OPEC may need to adjust its production strategies to counter the rising output from non-DoC countries. Continued economic growth in Asia, particularly in India and China, will be crucial for sustaining demand levels.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • OPEC should consider strategic production cuts to maintain price stability amidst rising non-DoC production.
  • Focus on enhancing cooperation with non-OECD countries to secure market share.
  • Monitor global economic indicators closely to anticipate shifts in demand patterns.
  • Invest in technology and innovation to improve production efficiency and reduce costs.
  • Strengthen communication with market participants to manage expectations and perceptions.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 53
Last Updated: 2025-11-01 23:49:23

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.8
Daily: 0.27 (0.27%)
Weekly: 1.02 (1.03%)

US_10Y

4.1
Daily: 0.01 (0.2%)
Weekly: 0.1 (2.6%)

SP500

6840.2
Daily: 17.86 (0.26%)
Weekly: -34.96 (-0.51%)

VIX

17.44
Daily: 0.53 (3.13%)
Weekly: 1.65 (10.45%)

GOLD

3982.2
Daily: -19.1 (-0.48%)
Weekly: -19.7 (-0.49%)

COPPER

5.07
Daily: -0.01 (-0.25%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.46%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.98
Closest Support: $60.2 1.28% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.38 0.66% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73
0.382 $60.2 Support
0.5 $61.38 Resistance
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.98
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-01 23:49:26
Next Trading Day: UP 0.17%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-01 $61.08 $58.85 $63.32
2025-11-02 $61.13 $58.9 $63.37
2025-11-03 $61.1 $58.87 $63.34
2025-11-04 $61.06 $58.83 $63.3
2025-11-05 $61.03 $58.79 $63.27

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.17% for the next trading day (2025-11-01), reaching $61.08.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-01 and 2025-11-05.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics suggest a bullish sentiment, with the overall market sentiment score at +0.600. However, the bearish positioning by hedge funds, indicated by a net short position in WTI, suggests potential volatility. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.09 indicates a premium for Brent, reflecting global supply-demand dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities as the market reacts to geopolitical tensions. Traders should monitor the support levels around $63.53 for WTI and $67.58 for Brent, as these levels could indicate potential reversals or continuations in price movements.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The stable production from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, alongside a modest increase in global oil demand of 1.3 mb/d, suggests a favorable environment for production planning. However, the decline in crude inventories by 10.4 mb month-on-month could impact market sentiment, potentially leading to price increases. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, particularly given the weakening sentiment reflected in CFTC positioning data.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and inventory levels. The current price for Brent at $67.58 and WTI at $63.53 indicates a need for strategic procurement planning. With refinery margins increasing due to heavy maintenance, ensuring stable supply chains and considering hedging options could mitigate risks associated with price volatility and supply reliability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bullish sentiment overall, with significant supply and demand dynamics at play. The bearish positioning by managed money traders and the declining crude inventories in OECD countries may indicate potential shifts in market sentiment. Analysts should closely monitor the interplay between geopolitical risks and economic growth forecasts, particularly in major markets like the US, China, and India, as these factors will drive future price movements and market stability.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved