Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-20 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/20/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
After multiple tests of support levels, Crude Oil broke below 61.64 in early October which brought on the slide to the mid $50s (something that we have been talking about for months). The fundamentals are simply bearish when you take into consideration that the only reason that we don't have surpluses in global inventories is because China has been building and filling their Strategic Petroleum Reserve which is estimated to consume currently over 2 MMBPD. Bear in mind, if we had those barrels in the market, I doubt OPEC+ would be releasing barrels and crude prices would likely be $10 lower (yes that means in the $40s). In my humble opinion there is no geopolitical risk premium left - traders have slowly taken that premium out piece by piece.....now that does NOT MEAN that when we have peace deals that crude will not drop - IT WILL - but I see that as good positioning for long term accumulation. This week, the bull bear line rests at 57.35 and we already are trading below that level - yet I think it will serve as a magnet. 53.87 is likely in the cards but we may be due for a retracement and re-test of 60 - only question is which one hits first??? Something tells me that we are not ready for a retracement...yet...

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-20 23:46:32 Length: 526 chars
Crude Oil has seen a bearish shift, breaking below crucial support at $61.64 and now lingering in the mid-$50s, influenced largely by China's aggressive strategic reserve buildup, which is masking true inventory levels. With OPEC+ unlikely to adjust production amidst this surplus, prices could drop further. The current bull-bear line rests at $57.35, but with potential retracement to $60 on the horizon, traders should remain cautious. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, as they may influence future price movements.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $61.29 $0.23
WTI: $57.54 $0.08
Spread: $3.75 (Brent premium of $3.75)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $56.84
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.03

MA(20): $61.14

Current Price is 56.84, 9 day MA 59.03, 20 day MA 61.14

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.604

Signal: -1.1564

Days since crossover: 14

MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 30.51

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 30.51 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,300

Avg (20d): 247,368

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 3.8

%D: 6.79

Stochastic %K: 3.8, %D: 6.79. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

STRONG DOWNTREND

ADX: 26.14

+DI: 10.7

-DI: 34.18

ADX: 26.14 (+DI: 10.7, -DI: 34.18). Trend: strong downtrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -96.2

Williams %R: -96.2 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 66.3

Middle: 61.14

Lower: 55.98

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 66.3, Middle: 61.14, Lower: 55.98

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13636.0 13629.0 13400.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5525.0 6403.0 6239.0 5793.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4466.0 3590.0 3794.0 4520.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15130.0 16297.0 15590.0 15567.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1059.0 2813.0 2445.0 1272.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423785.0 420261.0 422741.0 425885.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1696565.0 1694142.0 1641911.0 1628273.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 218826.0 219093.0 214898.0 215122.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 117030.0 121559.0 118513.0 111646.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $61.29, change $+0.23. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $57.54, change $+0.08. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.75 (Brent premium of $3.75). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$61.29
0.23
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$57.54
0.08
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.75
Brent premium of $3.75

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to rise, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Value (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
World Demand
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production
  • US Non-DoC Production: 22.07
  • Canada Non-DoC Production: 6.06
  • Chile Non-DoC Production: 0.01
  • OECD Americas Non-DoC Production: 28.14
  • Norway Non-DoC Production: 2.02
  • UK Non-DoC Production: 0.72
  • Denmark Non-DoC Production: 0.07
  • Other OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 0.76
  • OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 3.58
  • Australia Non-DoC Production: 0.35
  • Total OECD Non-DoC Production: 32.14
  • China Non-DoC Production: 4.61
  • India Non-DoC Production: 0.82
  • Indonesia Non-DoC Production: 0.83
  • Latin America Non-DoC Production: 7.53
  • Total Non-OECD Non-DoC Production: 19.30
DoC Production Data not provided in the raw CSV.

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance of supply and demand indicates that total world demand is projected at 105.14 mb/d while total production is at 105.14 mb/d, suggesting a balanced market. However, the demand for DoC crude is expected to increase to 42.5 mb/d in 2025, indicating potential pressure on supply if production does not keep pace.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the Americas lead global production with 25.19 mb/d, followed by the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. Notably, US Non-DoC production is substantial at 22.07 mb/d, indicating a strong position in the global market. The production from DoC countries has increased by 630 tb/d in September, reflecting OPEC's efforts to manage output effectively.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with non-OECD regions, particularly in Asia, driving this growth. The demand in China and India remains robust, while OECD demand is relatively stagnant, highlighting a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected at 51.44 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production, which has seen a recent increase to 43.05 mb/d. This disparity highlights the growing influence of non-OPEC producers in the global oil market, particularly as they continue to expand their production capabilities.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels, balancing the need to support prices while accommodating rising non-DoC production. The organization is likely to continue its strategy of managing output to stabilize the market amid fluctuating global demand.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As global economic growth remains stable, oil demand is expected to increase, particularly in non-OECD countries. OPEC's ability to adapt to these changes, alongside the rising production from non-DoC countries, will be crucial in shaping market dynamics in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the production levels of non-

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 31
Last Updated: 2025-10-20 23:49:22

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.72
Daily: 0.29 (0.29%)
Weekly: -0.33 (-0.34%)

US_10Y

3.99
Daily: -0.02 (-0.52%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-0.9%)

SP500

6735.13
Daily: 71.12 (1.07%)
Weekly: 90.82 (1.37%)

VIX

18.23
Daily: -2.55 (-12.27%)
Weekly: -2.58 (-12.4%)

GOLD

4365.7
Daily: 175.8 (4.2%)
Weekly: 227.0 (5.48%)

COPPER

5.05
Daily: 0.12 (2.39%)
Weekly: 0.07 (1.39%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $56.84
Closest Support: $56.6 0.42% below current price
Closest Resistance: $59.88 5.35% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.6 Support
0.236 $59.88 Resistance
0.382 $61.91
0.5 $63.56
0.618 $65.2
0.786 $67.53
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $74.29
1.618 $79.11
2.0 $84.42
2.618 $93.02

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $57.52
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-20 23:49:25
Next Trading Day: UP 0.15%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-21 $57.61 $55.63 $59.58
2025-10-22 $57.69 $55.72 $59.67
2025-10-23 $57.74 $55.76 $59.71
2025-10-24 $57.73 $55.76 $59.71
2025-10-25 $57.73 $55.75 $59.7

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-10-21), reaching $57.61.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-21 and 2025-10-25.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The overall market sentiment is bearish with a sentiment score of -0.600, indicating potential downward pressure on prices. The $63.53 WTI price shows a risk of further declines as hedge funds maintain a net short position. The $4.05 Brent-WTI spread suggests a continued premium for Brent, reflecting ongoing supply dynamics. Traders should watch for Fibonacci support levels in the $61.29 to $63.00 range, as a breach could open the door for further declines. Given the bearish positioning, short-term opportunities may arise from volatility, particularly if price movements diverge from the fundamentals.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the OECD crude oil inventories at 1,316 mb, which is 13.1 mb lower than last year, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. The current supply-demand balance remains tight, but the bearish sentiment in the market could affect production planning. Producers should monitor inventory levels closely as they impact pricing and operational decisions. Additionally, with a forecasted production increase from non-DoC countries, strategic adjustments may be necessary to remain competitive.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI trading at $63.53 and Brent at $67.58. The geopolitical risks and ongoing inventory concerns could disrupt supply reliability. The current market sentiment is bearish, suggesting that procurement strategies should account for potential price increases if supply tightens. Consumers may want to consider locking in prices or utilizing hedging strategies to manage cost exposure.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by oversupply concerns and a bearish positioning from managed money traders. The fundamental balance indicates stable demand growth at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, but the risk of a supply glut remains significant. Analysts should focus on the implications of the $4.05 Brent-WTI spread and monitor geopolitical developments that could shift market dynamics. The flattening of forward curves suggests limited upside potential in the near term, warranting a cautious outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved