Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-17 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/17/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude keeps sliding as oversupply fears crush last week’s geopolitical premium. WTI closed at $57.46 (−1.4%) and Brent at $61.06 (−1.4%), extending a three-day sell-off. Big inventory builds (+3.5 MM bbl), record U.S. output (13.64 MM bpd), and talk of a Trump-Putin meeting all weighed on sentiment. India’s walk-back on halting Russian oil and Iraq’s export restart added more barrels to an already heavy market. Crude finally reached the target we laid out in the beginning of the week at 57.35 and I think the path is set to head to 53.87 next - although there could be support at this level. The weekly petroleum status report was really bearish - especially with net imports masking potentially how bearish we could be right now. On the bull side we did have a bigger draw on distillates. Looking for a pause at 57.35 and a target of 53.87.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-17 23:46:24 Length: 532 chars
Crude oil prices continue to slide, closing at $57.46 for WTI and $61.06 for Brent, reflecting a three-day sell-off driven by oversupply fears. A notable inventory build of 3.5 million barrels and record U.S. production (13.64 million bpd) weigh heavily on market sentiment. Recent geopolitical developments, including India's resumption of Russian oil imports, further exacerbate the situation. As prices test support around $57.35, a potential drop to $53.87 looms, though a draw in distillates offers a glimmer of hope for bulls.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $61.06 $0.85
WTI: $57.46 $0.81
Spread: $3.6 (Brent premium of $3.60)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $57.25
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.54

MA(20): $61.41

Current Price is 57.25, 9 day MA 59.54, 20 day MA 61.41

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.5091

Signal: -1.0491

Days since crossover: 13

MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 31.46

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 31.46 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 359,449

Avg (20d): 270,727

Ratio: 1.33

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 15.47

%D: 8.23

Stochastic %K: 15.47, %D: 8.23. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 24.27

+DI: 11.09

-DI: 37.37

ADX: 24.27 (+DI: 11.09, -DI: 37.37). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -84.53

Williams %R: -84.53 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 66.26

Middle: 61.41

Lower: 56.56

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 66.26, Middle: 61.41, Lower: 56.56

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13636.0 13629.0 13400.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5525.0 6403.0 6239.0 5793.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4466.0 3590.0 3794.0 4520.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15130.0 16297.0 15590.0 15567.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1059.0 2813.0 2445.0 1272.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423785.0 420261.0 422741.0 425885.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1696565.0 1694142.0 1641911.0 1628273.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 218826.0 219093.0 214898.0 215122.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 117030.0 121559.0 118513.0 111646.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $61.06, change $-0.85. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $57.46, change $-0.81. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.6 (Brent premium of $3.60). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$61.06
0.85
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$57.46
0.81
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.6
Brent premium of $3.60

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, while production from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries is expected to adjust in response to these demand trends.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production
  • US: 22.07
  • Canada: 6.06
  • Chile: 0.01
  • OECD Americas: 28.14
  • Norway: 2.02
  • UK: 0.72
  • Denmark: 0.07
  • Other OECD Europe: 0.76
  • OECD Europe: 3.58
  • Australia: 0.35
  • China: 4.61
  • India: 0.82
  • Indonesia: 0.83
  • Thailand: 0.39
  • Vietnam: 0.18
  • Latin America: 7.53
  • Middle East: 2.01
  • Africa: 2.28
  • Total Non-OECD Non-DoC Production: 19.30
DoC Production

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current analysis indicates that total world demand stands at approximately 105.14 mb/d, while total production from OPEC and non-OPEC countries is expected to meet this demand. However, with a slight increase in production from non-DoC countries, OPEC may face pressure to adjust its output levels to maintain price stability.

Production Landscape:

Production trends show that the Americas remain the largest contributor to global oil supply, with the US leading non-DoC production. Notably, OPEC's production has increased to approximately 43.05 mb/d, with a month-on-month increase of 630 tb/d. Key producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq continue to play a significant role in the overall OPEC output.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, with the non-OECD regions, particularly Asia, driving this growth. China's demand remains robust, while India continues to show significant growth potential. However, challenges such as economic fluctuations in OECD countries could impact overall demand dynamics.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted to grow significantly, particularly in the US, Brazil, and Canada, which are expected to be the main drivers of this increase. In contrast, DoC production is projected to remain stable, suggesting that OPEC may need to adapt its strategies to counterbalance the rising output from non-DoC producers.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production adjustments in light of rising non-DoC output. The organization is likely to maintain its current production levels while closely monitoring market conditions and demand forecasts to ensure price stability.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

In the coming months, OPEC is expected to face challenges from increasing non-DoC production and fluctuating global demand. Strategic adjustments may be necessary to navigate potential oversupply scenarios, particularly if demand growth does not keep pace with production increases.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor non-DoC production trends closely, particularly from the US and Brazil.
  • Assess the impact of OECD economic performance on global oil demand.
  • Consider potential production adjustments to maintain price stability amidst rising supply.
  • Focus on strengthening relationships with key non-OECD consumers to bolster demand.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 67
Last Updated: 2025-10-17 23:49:08

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.54
Daily: 0.15 (0.15%)
Weekly: -0.73 (-0.73%)

US_10Y

4.01
Daily: 0.03 (0.78%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-1.09%)

SP500

6664.01
Daily: 34.94 (0.53%)
Weekly: 9.29 (0.14%)

VIX

20.78
Daily: -4.53 (-17.9%)
Weekly: 1.75 (9.2%)

GOLD

4267.9
Daily: -12.3 (-0.29%)
Weekly: 159.3 (3.88%)

COPPER

5.0
Daily: 0.04 (0.8%)
Weekly: -0.1 (-2.02%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $57.25
Closest Support: $56.15 1.92% below current price
Closest Resistance: $59.54 4.0% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.15 Support
0.236 $59.54 Resistance
0.382 $61.64
0.5 $63.33
0.618 $65.02
0.786 $67.44
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $74.42
1.618 $79.38
2.0 $84.87
2.618 $93.74

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $57.46
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-17 23:49:10
Next Trading Day: UP 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-17 $57.56 $55.57 $59.56
2025-10-18 $57.57 $55.57 $59.56
2025-10-19 $57.65 $55.66 $59.65
2025-10-20 $57.73 $55.74 $59.72
2025-10-21 $57.77 $55.78 $59.76

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-10-17), reaching $57.56.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-17 and 2025-10-21.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.700. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $3.60, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities as Brent prices reflect stronger global demand dynamics compared to WTI. The resistance level for WTI appears to be around $63.53, while support might be tested at lower levels due to the recent bearish positioning among hedge funds. Traders should watch for volatility as the market adjusts to mixed news sentiment and geopolitical factors, particularly concerning oversupply concerns and dollar strength.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of current inventory levels, with OECD crude stocks down by 10.4 mb month-on-month and 45.7 mb lower than last year. This indicates a tightening market, which may support prices in the medium term. However, the bearish market sentiment driven by speculator positions suggests caution in production planning and hedging strategies. The hedging strategy should focus on managing potential price volatility, particularly as the market reacts to geopolitical developments and demand fluctuations.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI prices averaging $63.53 and Brent at $67.58. The current supply reliability risks stem from geopolitical tensions and reduced inventories, which could impact procurement strategies. With refinery margins increasing due to lower product output, it may be prudent to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential cost spikes in the short term.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, reflected in the -0.700 sentiment score. Key driving factors include stable global economic growth forecasts, a slight increase in oil demand, and a notable drop in crude inventories. However, the positioning of managed money traders indicates a potential for market reversal. Analysts should closely monitor the fundamental balance between supply and demand, particularly as geopolitical risks and refinery maintenance seasons could shift market dynamics. The outlook remains uncertain, requiring ongoing assessment of both technical and fundamental indicators.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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