Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-14 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/14/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
After a massive risk-off shift on Friday with Israel-Hamas ceasefire with hostages from both sides of the conflict being returned (thankfully!!), the crude market and other energy markets decided to take this as a queue that the geopolitical premium needs to disappear and WTI broke below $60 - breaking the ever critical 61.64 support. Brent is still hovering over $63 while WTI sits at 59.57 - this is set for a further drop down. We will likely see $53 soon unless other conflict, attacks, or the Russia-Ukraine war intensifies. Most traders are now looking at demand only - which has been better than expected this year (albeit propped up from China building out their SPR). 61.64 and 57.35 are the range - and I expect the latter to be tested this week as we collapse under a bearish sentiment for economy and crude demand.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-14 23:47:12 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil has seen a significant risk-off shift, with WTI breaking below $60 after the Israel-Hamas ceasefire signal, erasing the geopolitical premium. Currently hovering around $59.57, traders anticipate a potential drop to $53, especially amid ongoing concerns about oversupply and US-China trade tensions. Demand remains better than expected, largely bolstered by China's strategic reserves. Key support levels to watch are $61.64 and $57.35 as bearish sentiment takes hold,...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.32 $0.59
WTI: $59.49 $0.59
Spread: $3.83 (Brent premium of $3.83)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.64
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $60.65

MA(20): $62.28

Current Price is 58.64, 9 day MA 60.65, 20 day MA 62.28

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.0965

Signal: -0.7208

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 35.38

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 35.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 4,881

Avg (20d): 235,345

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 5.12

%D: 9.63

Stochastic %K: 5.12, %D: 9.63. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.73

+DI: 14.1

-DI: 33.46

ADX: 17.73 (+DI: 14.1, -DI: 33.46). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -94.88

Williams %R: -94.88 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 66.11

Middle: 62.28

Lower: 58.44

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 66.11, Middle: 62.28, Lower: 58.44

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13629.0 13505.0 13300.0 12833.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6403.0 5833.0 6628.0 6210.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3590.0 3751.0 3878.0 3244.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16297.0 16168.0 15691.0 15492.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2813.0 2082.0 2750.0 2966.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420261.0 416546.0 416931.0 428687.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1694142.0 1695087.0 1649630.0 1636291.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 219093.0 220694.0 221202.0 216683.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 121559.0 123577.0 121637.0 113844.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $63.32, change $+0.59. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $59.49, change $+0.59. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.83 (Brent premium of $3.83). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.32
0.59
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$59.49
0.59
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.83
Brent premium of $3.83

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a balanced yet cautious outlook, with global oil demand projected to grow steadily while production levels from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries remain closely monitored. Despite fluctuations in crude oil prices, OPEC's strategic adjustments in production are aimed at maintaining market stability amidst evolving economic conditions.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.494 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 N/A
DoC Production 43.05 42.5

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight deficit in the market, with total world demand at approximately 105.135 mb/d compared to total production of 104.494 mb/d. This situation may lead to upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, particularly as demand from non-OECD countries remains robust.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.186 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.509 mb/d and Asia Pacific at 7.134 mb/d. Notably, the United States contributes significantly to non-DoC production, while OPEC members collectively produced 43.05 mb/d, reflecting a strategic increase of 630 tb/d month-on-month.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly Asia, driving this growth. Demand in China and India remains strong, while OECD demand is relatively stagnant, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production stands at 51.439 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply, while DoC production is at 43.05 mb/d. The difference highlights the importance of non-OPEC producers in meeting global demand, especially as they are expected to see continued growth in output.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current strategy appears focused on maintaining price stability while accommodating rising demand from non-OECD countries. The organization is likely to continue adjusting production levels to balance the market, especially as global economic growth remains stable.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the oil market may experience tighter supply conditions if the current demand growth trends continue. OPEC's proactive adjustments and the potential for geopolitical disruptions could further influence market dynamics in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor production adjustments by OPEC to gauge market responses.
  • Focus on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, for demand growth opportunities.
  • Prepare for potential price volatility due to supply-demand imbalances.
  • Evaluate the impact of geopolitical factors on oil supply and pricing.
  • Consider strategic inventory management to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 43
Last Updated: 2025-10-14 23:50:07

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.87
Daily: -0.4 (-0.4%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.02%)

US_10Y

4.02
Daily: -0.03 (-0.72%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.59%)

SP500

6644.31
Daily: -10.41 (-0.16%)
Weekly: -109.41 (-1.62%)

VIX

20.81
Daily: 1.78 (9.35%)
Weekly: 4.51 (27.67%)

GOLD

4202.4
Daily: 93.8 (2.28%)
Weekly: 159.1 (3.93%)

COPPER

5.02
Daily: -0.09 (-1.67%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.6%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.64
Closest Support: $58.22 0.72% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.12 4.23% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $58.22 Support
0.236 $61.12 Resistance
0.382 $62.91
0.5 $64.37
0.618 $65.82
0.786 $67.88
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.85
1.618 $78.11
2.0 $82.8
2.618 $90.4

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.7
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-14 23:50:09
Next Trading Day: UP 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-15 $58.8 $56.75 $60.86
2025-10-16 $59.02 $56.97 $61.07
2025-10-17 $59.12 $57.07 $61.17
2025-10-18 $59.16 $57.1 $61.21
2025-10-19 $59.19 $57.14 $61.24

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-10-15), reaching $58.80.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-15 and 2025-10-19.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market signals indicate a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600. The $63.32 for Brent and $59.49 for WTI suggest potential short-term price pressure. The Brent-WTI spread at $3.83 reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics that could influence trading strategies.

Given the short positions maintained by hedge funds, volatility may increase, particularly if geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions arise. Traders should monitor key resistance levels around $67.58 for Brent and $63.53 for WTI, while potential support may be found around the $60.00 mark for WTI.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The supply-demand balance indicates stable demand growth at approximately 1.3 mb/d for 2025, with production from non-DoC countries expected to rise. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies in light of the bearish market sentiment and decreasing inventory levels in OECD regions.

The impact of fluctuating crude prices and the potential for increased competition from non-DoC producers should be factored into operational strategies, especially as the market sentiment remains cautious. With crude stocks down 10.4 mb m-o-m, producers may need to adjust their output to align with market conditions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, with current WTI at $59.49 and Brent at $63.32. The supply reliability risks are heightened by geopolitical tensions and the tightening inventories in OECD regions, which could lead to increased procurement costs.

It's advisable to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with rising prices, especially in light of the increased refinery margins and seasonal demand trends. Monitoring the market closely will be essential to navigate potential supply disruptions and price spikes.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market currently presents a bearish outlook, driven by a combination of factors including bearish sentiment from traders, stable yet modest demand growth, and increasing supply from non-DoC producers. The fundamental balance remains delicate, with OECD inventories decreasing significantly.

Analysts should focus on the geopolitical landscape and its potential impact on supply chains, as well as the implications of the current bearish positioning of managed money traders. The outlook could shift depending on external factors such as trade tensions and OPEC's production decisions, which will be critical in shaping future price trajectories.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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