Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-13 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/13/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
After a massive risk-off shift on Friday with Israel-Hamas ceasefire with hostages from both sides of the conflict being returned (thankfully!!), the crude market and other energy markets decided to take this as a queue that the geopolitical premium needs to disappear and WTI broke below $60 - breaking the ever critical 61.64 support. Brent is still hovering over $63 while WTI sits at 59.57 - this is set for a further drop down. We will likely see $53 soon unless other conflict, attacks, or the Russia-Ukraine war intensifies. Most traders are now looking at demand only - which has been better than expected this year (albeit propped up from China building out their SPR). 61.64 and 57.35 are the range - and I expect the latter to be tested this week as we collapse under a bearish sentiment for economy and crude demand.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-13 23:46:50 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil markets experienced a seismic shift as geopolitical tensions eased, leading WTI to tumble below $60, breaching the critical $61.64 support level. With Brent hovering over $63, bearish sentiment now dominates, and traders are focused on demand—bolstered by unexpected Chinese SPR purchases. The outlook suggests a potential test of $57.35 soon, with forecasts indicating a further decline unless geopolitical turmoil resurfaces. As always, keep an eye on demand dynami...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.73 $2.49
WTI: $58.9 $2.61
Spread: $3.83 (Brent premium of $3.83)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $59.71
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $61.03

MA(20): $62.58

Current Price is 59.71, 9 day MA 61.03, 20 day MA 62.58

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.9285

Signal: -0.6234

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 38.93

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 38.93 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,049

Avg (20d): 230,111

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 18.17

%D: 14.97

Stochastic %K: 18.17, %D: 14.97. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.97

+DI: 15.07

-DI: 32.76

ADX: 15.97 (+DI: 15.07, -DI: 32.76). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -81.83

Williams %R: -81.83 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 66.11

Middle: 62.58

Lower: 59.05

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 66.11, Middle: 62.58, Lower: 59.05

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13629.0 13505.0 13300.0 12833.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6403.0 5833.0 6628.0 6210.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3590.0 3751.0 3878.0 3244.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16297.0 16168.0 15691.0 15492.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2813.0 2082.0 2750.0 2966.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420261.0 416546.0 416931.0 428687.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1694142.0 1695087.0 1649630.0 1636291.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 219093.0 220694.0 221202.0 216683.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 121559.0 123577.0 121637.0 113844.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $62.73, change $-2.49. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $58.9, change $-2.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.83 (Brent premium of $3.83). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.73
2.49
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$58.9
2.61
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.83
Brent premium of $3.83

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

OPEC's market situation in September reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket rising to $70.39/b. Global oil demand is forecasted to grow steadily, while production from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries is expected to adjust in response to these demand dynamics.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.494 mb/d 105.135 mb/d
Non-DoC Production 51.439 mb/d 59.306 mb/d
DoC Production 43.05 mb/d 42.5 mb/d

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current data indicates a slight deficit in the overall oil market, with total world demand at 105.135 mb/d against total production of 104.494 mb/d. This suggests a tightening market, which could lead to upward pressure on prices if the trend continues.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global production include the Americas (25.19 mb/d), Europe (13.51 mb/d), and the Middle East (9.01 mb/d). Notably, the US remains the largest producer with 22.07 mb/d, followed by Canada at 6.06 mb/d. The DoC countries collectively produced 43.05 mb/d, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 630 tb/d.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, primarily driven by non-OECD countries, which are expected to see an increase of 1.2 mb/d. The demand from OECD countries is forecasted to grow modestly by 0.1 mb/d. Key growth regions include China and India, with demands of 16.85 mb/d and 5.70 mb/d, respectively.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is significantly higher at 51.439 mb/d compared to DoC production at 43.05 mb/d. This highlights the increasing role of non-OPEC producers in the global oil supply landscape, particularly the US, which alone contributes 22.07 mb/d.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a strategic balance between maintaining production levels and responding to demand fluctuations. The organization is likely to continue monitoring market dynamics closely, with potential adjustments in production quotas to stabilize prices amidst rising global demand.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the market is expected to experience continued demand growth, particularly in non-OECD regions. OPEC may adjust its production strategies to align with these trends, potentially leading to tighter supply conditions and upward pressure on prices in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the balance between global production and demand closely to anticipate price movements.
  • Consider the implications of increasing non-OPEC production on market dynamics.
  • Evaluate the potential for OPEC to adjust production levels in response to demand growth.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that may impact supply chains and pricing.
  • Prepare for potential volatility in crude oil prices as market conditions evolve.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 44
Last Updated: 2025-10-13 23:49:39

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.21
Daily: 0.23 (0.23%)
Weekly: 0.63 (0.64%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.84%)

SP500

6654.72
Daily: 102.21 (1.56%)
Weekly: -59.87 (-0.89%)

VIX

19.03
Daily: -2.63 (-12.14%)
Weekly: 1.79 (10.38%)

GOLD

4175.4
Daily: 199.5 (5.02%)
Weekly: 198.8 (5.0%)

COPPER

5.14
Daily: 0.29 (6.01%)
Weekly: 0.09 (1.82%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $59.71
Closest Support: $58.22 2.5% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.12 2.36% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $58.22 Support
0.236 $61.12 Resistance
0.382 $62.91
0.5 $64.37
0.618 $65.82
0.786 $67.88
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.85
1.618 $78.11
2.0 $82.8
2.618 $90.4

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $59.49
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-13 23:49:42
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.19%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-14 $59.38 $57.27 $61.48
2025-10-15 $59.47 $57.37 $61.58
2025-10-16 $59.71 $57.6 $61.81
2025-10-17 $59.8 $57.69 $61.9
2025-10-18 $59.78 $57.67 $61.89

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.19% for the next trading day (2025-10-14), reaching $59.38.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-14 and 2025-10-18.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics suggest bearish sentiment, with the Brent crude (DEC 25) settling at $62.73 and WTI crude (NOV 25) at $58.90. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $3.83, reflecting ongoing differences in supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.

The managed money net position indicates a weakening bullish stance, with a drop of -10,316 contracts in the last week. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially as hedge funds maintain a net short position in crude futures.

Key support levels can be identified around $58.00 for WTI and $62.00 for Brent, while resistance may be encountered at $65.00 for Brent and $61.00 for WTI. Traders should monitor these levels closely for short-term opportunities or risks.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the current market sentiment and a forecasted increase in global oil demand of about 1.3 mb/d in 2025, producers should consider adjusting production planning to align with anticipated demand growth, particularly in non-OECD countries.

The increase in OECD commercial inventories falling to 2,793 mb indicates a tightening market, which could affect pricing strategies. Producers should evaluate their hedging strategies in light of the current bearish sentiment and potential price volatility.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as the market sentiment remains bearish. The recent increase in refinery margins due to seasonal trends may offer some relief, but the geopolitical risks and inventory levels could impact supply reliability.

With US crude exports reaching a high of 4.3 mb/d, procurement strategies may need to adapt to ensure consistent supply, especially as global oil demand is projected to grow. Consumers should consider hedging options to mitigate price risks.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and stable demand growth forecasts, with global oil demand expected to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. The balance of supply and demand indicates a tightening market, particularly with OECD crude stocks at 1,316 mb, significantly below historical averages.

The current positioning of managed money suggests a potential shift towards bearish price movements, which may impact market strategies. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their implications for

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