Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-12 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/12/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Well - despite the Israel-Hamas/Iran war not having any direct impact on Oil, there has always been an implied war premium. Today there is a Gaza Peace deal that has been reached (at least temporarily) - now this is still a fluid situation and I would advise to be ready for anything. But this is taking Crude below the $60 mark (which we have been calling for since late August) - this is combined with some bearish stats on Distillates in the US. Add in increased OPEC+ barrels and we have a bearish trader and news sentiment….BUT let me stress a few things to consider - the US production is virtually stalled (downward prices will do nothing to increase production), OPEC+ can raise quotas but can they increase production (Saudi & UAE - yes, every other country is likely at their max output), and other countries are not growing oil supply. This sets up a supply shortfall if (that’s a big IF) demand is the same or even growing. I think this move into the 50s will likely linger into early 2026, then in 2026 - we will start a very strong move up and build back to the 70-80s (at least). That said - here’s what to watch: 61.64 (recently broken support is now resistance) and 57.35 (the likely next stop on the downside). And obviously a big psychological number at 60.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-12 23:47:07 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices are navigating a turbulent landscape, recently dipping below $60 amid a temporary Gaza peace deal and bearish U.S. distillate stats. Despite increased OPEC+ output, U.S. production remains stalled, which could lead to a supply shortfall if demand holds steady. Technically, resistance is now at $61.64, with a bearish outlook towards $57.35. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments and OPEC's capacity to manage production, as these factors could dramatically...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.73 $2.49
WTI: $58.9 $2.61
Spread: $3.83 (Brent premium of $3.83)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $59.82
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $61.04

MA(20): $62.59

Current Price is 59.82, 9 day MA 61.04, 20 day MA 62.59

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.9197

Signal: -0.6216

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 39.43

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 39.43 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 38,725

Avg (20d): 227,798

Ratio: 0.17

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 19.51

%D: 15.41

Stochastic %K: 19.51, %D: 15.41. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 15.97

+DI: 14.95

-DI: 32.49

ADX: 15.97 (+DI: 14.95, -DI: 32.49). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -80.49

Williams %R: -80.49 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 66.1

Middle: 62.59

Lower: 59.08

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 66.1, Middle: 62.59, Lower: 59.08

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13629.0 13505.0 13300.0 12833.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6403.0 5833.0 6628.0 6210.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3590.0 3751.0 3878.0 3244.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16297.0 16168.0 15691.0 15492.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2813.0 2082.0 2750.0 2966.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420261.0 416546.0 416931.0 428687.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1694142.0 1695087.0 1649630.0 1636291.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 219093.0 220694.0 221202.0 216683.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 121559.0 123577.0 121637.0 113844.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $62.73, change $-2.49. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $58.9, change $-2.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.83 (Brent premium of $3.83). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.73
2.49
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$58.9
2.61
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.83
Brent premium of $3.83

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite this, the market fundamentals remain robust, supported by steady global demand growth and a stable economic outlook, particularly in non-OECD regions.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.135 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 -
DoC Production 42.40 -

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The data indicates that global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while production from Non-DoC countries is expected to increase by 0.8 mb/d. This suggests a potential surplus in the market, particularly if DoC production maintains its current levels, which could lead to downward pressure on prices if demand does not keep pace.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global production include the US (22.07 mb/d), Canada (6.06 mb/d), and Brazil (4.39 mb/d). The DoC countries have shown a slight increase in production, averaging 42.40 mb/d, which reflects a month-on-month increase of 509 tb/d. This indicates a stable production environment among OPEC members, despite fluctuations in global prices.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to grow significantly in non-OECD regions, particularly in Asia, with China and India leading the demand growth. In 2025, China's demand is projected to be 16.85 mb/d and India's at 5.70 mb/d. This trend highlights the increasing reliance on oil in emerging markets, while OECD demand growth remains modest.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted to reach 51.44 mb/d in 2025, significantly outpacing DoC production, which stands at 42.40 mb/d. This disparity indicates that Non-DoC countries are becoming increasingly influential in the global oil market, potentially challenging OPEC's traditional dominance.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels amid fluctuating prices. The organization is likely to continue monitoring global demand trends closely, particularly in non-OECD regions, to adjust its output strategy accordingly and maintain price stability.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we look ahead, the market is expected to face challenges from potential oversupply, particularly if Non-DoC production continues to rise. However, sustained demand growth in emerging markets may counterbalance these pressures, leading to a more stable pricing environment in the latter half of 2025.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely, as they may impact OPEC's pricing strategy.
  • Focus on emerging market demand, particularly in Asia, to identify growth opportunities.
  • Consider potential adjustments in production levels to mitigate oversupply risks.
  • Maintain a flexible approach to production cuts or increases based on real-time market data.
  • Engage in strategic partnerships with Non-DoC producers to enhance market stability.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 43
Last Updated: 2025-10-12 23:49:54

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.93
Daily: -0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly: 0.35 (0.36%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: -0.1 (-2.34%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.67%)

SP500

6552.51
Daily: -182.6 (-2.71%)
Weekly: -187.77 (-2.79%)

VIX

21.66
Daily: 5.23 (31.83%)
Weekly: 5.29 (32.32%)

GOLD

4071.7
Daily: 95.8 (2.41%)
Weekly: 95.1 (2.39%)

COPPER

5.02
Daily: 0.18 (3.62%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.48%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $59.82
Closest Support: $58.22 2.67% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.12 2.17% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $58.22 Support
0.236 $61.12 Resistance
0.382 $62.91
0.5 $64.37
0.618 $65.82
0.786 $67.88
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.85
1.618 $78.11
2.0 $82.8
2.618 $90.4

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.9
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-12 23:49:56
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.12%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-11 $58.83 $56.64 $61.02
2025-10-12 $58.73 $56.55 $60.92
2025-10-13 $58.83 $56.65 $61.02
2025-10-14 $59.08 $56.89 $61.26
2025-10-15 $59.21 $57.02 $61.4

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.12% for the next trading day (2025-10-11), reaching $58.83.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-11 and 2025-10-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

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For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment, with the Brent crude (DEC 25) settling at $62.73 and WTI crude (NOV 25) at $58.90. The Brent-WTI spread is at $3.83, suggesting ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent, likely due to geopolitical factors and transportation costs. The support levels to watch are around $60 for WTI and $65 for Brent, while resistance is seen at $64 for WTI and $67 for Brent. The volatility may increase due to the recent speculative selling pressure and the managed money net position turning increasingly net short. Traders should remain cautious of short-term fluctuations and potential reversal signals.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current balance of supply and demand indicates a mixed outlook for production planning. With OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,317 mb, which is significantly lower than historical averages, producers may need to adjust their output strategies. The hedging strategies should focus on mitigating risks due to the bearish market sentiment and the declining crude prices. Given the inventory levels and the potential for further declines in prices, producers may consider locking in prices through futures contracts. The impact of geopolitical factors remains a concern, particularly as tensions in the Middle East ease, which could further contribute to price declines.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. With bearish market sentiment prevailing, procurement strategies may benefit from locking in current prices before further declines. The supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions are easing but remain a factor to monitor, especially with US crude imports increasing to 6.5 mb/d. It is advisable to closely watch inventory levels and adjust procurement strategies accordingly to ensure stable supply and manage costs effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by a combination of technical, fundamental, and geopolitical factors. The fundamentals show a tightening supply due to low OECD crude inventories but are countered by a significant decline in prices and a net short positioning from managed money. Analysts should focus on the implications of the Brent-WTI spread and the overall impact of global economic growth forecasts, which remain stable but may not support significant price recoveries in the near term. The outlook suggests a cautious approach, monitoring for any shifts in market sentiment or unexpected geopolitical developments that could alter the current trajectory.